078
FXUS64 KEPZ 071749
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1049 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
- WINDY CONDITIONS AND BLOWING DUST EXPECTED FOR TODAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. BLOWING DUST WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CREATE
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH TODAY, WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
- FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
THE ACTIVE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. EACH STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING ROUNDS OF WIND, DUST, CHANCES OF PRECIP, AND ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
..TODAY & SATURDAY
AS YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST, A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ AND NM, BRINGING YET
ANOTHER DAY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN THE
VICINITY OF AZ/CA/NV. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AZ AND NM DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE CORE
TREKS EASTWARD TOWARDS NM. A RATHER TIGHT 500MB PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAN BE OBSERVED ON MODEL GUIDANCE WITH AN ASSOCIATED 60-80 KNOT
500MB JET OVERLAYED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NM. THIS COUPLED
WITH SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE PERMIAN
BASIN/TRANS PECOS OF WEST TX, AND IT'S ASSOCIATED TIGHTLY PACKED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LOCALLY. WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY, BUT
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. THAT SAID, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM THIS
MORNING THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING. AGAIN, LIKE PREVIOUS WIND
EVENTS, WIND TRAJECTORIES OF 210-250 LOOK FAVORABLE. AND GIVEN
THE STATE OF DROUGHT AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND DRY SOIL
CONDITIONS, THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING DUST. A
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DESERT LOWLAND LOCATIONS
EXCLUDING HIDALGO AND SIERRA COUNTIES.
SWITCHING GEARS, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ENCROACHES THE FORECAST AREA, ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT
ALONG AND IN FRONT OF THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT, AS WELL AS THE
MAIN CORE OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOMALOUS
PWAT AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1.5 MAGNITUDES GREATER THAN AVERAGE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID, AS THIS SYSTEM AND IT'S
MOISTURE INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE MOGOLLON/GILA
MOUNTAINS AND THE DESERT SKY ISLANDS OF SW NM AND SE AZ, RAIN AND
SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS BEGINNING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GILA AND AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GILA,
INCLUDING SILVER CITY. ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 5000-7500 FEET COULD SEE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET COULD SEE 3-5
INCHES OF SNOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM
TODAY THROUGH 5AM TOMORROW MORNING. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
DROPS OFF FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RGV, EXCLUDING THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
..SUNDAY & MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE DESERT SW ON SUNDAY,
GIVING US A BREAK FROM THE WIND. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY, TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
WITH FURTHER WARMING ON MONDAY. A REALLY DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
IN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ON MONDAY.
..TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE NEXT SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. AS EACH SYSTEM TRAVERSES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW, WIND, DUST, AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST. TARGET DAYS FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOOK TO
BE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND THEIR
RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH EACH OTHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WINDY AND DUSTY DAY. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST
WIND WHICH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS MAXING OUT AT 30G40KT AT 21Z. DUST ISSUES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. DUST IS ALREADY GETTING LOFTED
UP AT THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET, THE DUST AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE
DOWNTREND BUT TERMINALS WILL STILL SEE SOME MILD BREEZES HEADING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 232 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
FOR DESERT LOWLAND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST, A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ AND NM, BRING YET ANOTHER
WINDY DAY TO THE FORECAST AREA. SW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS OF 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND MIN RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY. MIN RHS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NM WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 (EAST) AND 30
(WEST) PERCENT, WITH MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 30 PERCENT. DEEP
AFTERNOON MIXING AND STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT
SMOKE VENTILATION RATES THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THE GILA
REGION AND AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF WITH REGARD TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK IN THE FORECAST. THEN, THE
NEXT SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK. AS EACH SYSTEM TRAVERSES ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW, WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. TARGET DAYS FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOOK TO BE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED
ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH EACH OTHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 37 59 35 / 0 10 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 32 53 27 / 0 0 20 0
LAS CRUCES 63 30 56 29 / 10 10 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 28 54 25 / 10 20 40 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 16 32 17 / 10 30 60 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 31 53 30 / 30 20 40 0
SILVER CITY 48 27 48 26 / 70 60 50 0
DEMING 61 31 58 28 / 20 10 30 0
LORDSBURG 56 28 56 25 / 50 40 30 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 37 57 36 / 0 10 20 0
DELL CITY 70 32 57 27 / 0 0 30 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 34 60 29 / 0 0 20 0
LOMA LINDA 63 30 50 30 / 0 0 30 0
FABENS 72 35 59 30 / 0 0 20 0
SANTA TERESA 66 33 56 31 / 0 10 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 36 56 35 / 0 10 30 0
JORNADA RANGE 63 29 55 25 / 10 10 30 0
HATCH 64 32 59 27 / 20 10 30 0
COLUMBUS 64 34 59 32 / 10 10 20 0
OROGRANDE 64 30 53 28 / 0 10 30 0
MAYHILL 53 22 43 21 / 10 20 60 0
MESCALERO 51 19 42 19 / 10 30 70 10
TIMBERON 51 17 42 18 / 10 20 50 0
WINSTON 49 19 47 18 / 50 30 50 0
HILLSBORO 56 27 53 28 / 30 20 40 0
SPACEPORT 60 25 54 24 / 20 10 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 47 25 48 22 / 80 60 60 0
HURLEY 52 26 52 24 / 60 40 40 0
CLIFF 53 24 56 18 / 70 70 50 0
MULE CREEK 46 27 51 22 / 80 80 50 0
FAYWOOD 53 29 51 28 / 40 30 40 0
ANIMAS 57 29 59 27 / 50 20 10 0
HACHITA 59 28 56 25 / 40 10 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 30 58 29 / 40 20 10 0
CLOVERDALE 49 28 52 30 / 70 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
OTERO MESA-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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