028
FXUS64 KEPZ 080529
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1029 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1024 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
- WINDY CONDITIONS AND BLOWING DUST EXPECTED FOR TODAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. BLOWING DUST WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CREATE
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERT
LOWLANDS.
- FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
THE UPPER LOW THAT'S BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO PASS WEST TO EAST OVER NM TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODEST SNOWFALL IN THE
AREA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW IS SHOWING AROUND 1-3"
ACROSS THE GILA REGION, AND AROUND 1-2" IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH A DEFINITE
COOL DOWN EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP ANYWHERE FROM 5-15
DEGREES TOMORROW COMPARED TO WHAT WE'LL SEE TODAY. A MUCH NEEDED,
QUIETER COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS,
AND GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OUR NEXT
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS, DUST, AND EVEN SOME RAIN CHANCES.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT BIG SYSTEM
ARRIVES LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER DOSE OF WINDY CONDITIONS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
BLOWING DUST HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA, AND WINDS HAVE BEEN
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY, BUT AS EXPECTED ARE STILL A LITTLE GUSTY AT
ELP. EXPECT WE'LL SEE GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
PREDAWN HOURS THERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, WITH SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST FORM LOCAL SOURCES. MOST OF THE
MAIN DUST SOURCES WILL AVOID TAF SITES, HOWEVER. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND A FEW GUSTY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TCS, DMN, AND LRU...BUT WITH LIMITED IMPACTS AND NO
LIGHTNING EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
GENERALLY LOW FIRE DANGER TOMORROW AS MIN RHS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (LOWLANDS 20-30%, MOUNTAINS 40-50%).
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TOMORROW DUE TO THE RETURN OF CRITICAL MIN
RHS OF 11-15% ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BUT WINDS STAY VERY LIGHT AT
5-10MPH. WINDS STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT MIN RHS
DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE LOWLANDS (7-10% IN THE LOWLANDS AND
12-15% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS) CREATING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
ANOTHER WINDY DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY COUPLED WITH CRITICAL MIN RHS
(SOME PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE SINGLE DIGIT RHS THAT
AFTERNOON) WHICH WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MIN RHS AT 17-25%. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING THE NEED FOR
RED FLAG WARNINGS THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 35 59 36 65 / 10 20 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 30 53 28 60 / 0 20 10 0
LAS CRUCES 28 56 30 64 / 10 20 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 26 54 26 64 / 20 20 20 0
CLOUDCROFT 14 32 18 45 / 30 40 30 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 53 31 64 / 20 30 20 0
SILVER CITY 25 48 27 60 / 40 30 20 0
DEMING 29 58 29 65 / 20 20 10 0
LORDSBURG 26 56 26 65 / 20 20 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 35 57 37 64 / 10 20 10 0
DELL CITY 30 57 27 64 / 10 20 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 32 60 30 66 / 10 20 10 0
LOMA LINDA 28 50 30 59 / 10 20 10 0
FABENS 33 59 30 65 / 10 20 10 0
SANTA TERESA 31 56 31 63 / 10 20 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 34 56 36 65 / 10 20 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 27 55 26 64 / 10 20 10 0
HATCH 30 59 28 67 / 20 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 32 59 32 65 / 10 20 10 0
OROGRANDE 28 53 29 62 / 10 20 20 0
MAYHILL 20 43 22 56 / 30 60 40 0
MESCALERO 17 42 20 55 / 30 50 30 0
TIMBERON 15 42 19 54 / 30 40 30 0
WINSTON 17 47 19 58 / 30 30 20 0
HILLSBORO 25 53 29 63 / 30 30 20 0
SPACEPORT 23 54 25 64 / 20 20 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 23 48 23 61 / 50 30 20 0
HURLEY 24 52 24 61 / 30 20 20 0
CLIFF 22 56 19 68 / 40 30 20 0
MULE CREEK 25 51 23 62 / 60 30 10 0
FAYWOOD 27 51 29 62 / 30 20 20 0
ANIMAS 27 59 28 67 / 20 10 0 0
HACHITA 26 56 26 64 / 20 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 28 58 30 64 / 20 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 26 52 31 60 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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