279
FXUS64 KEPZ 081733
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1033 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 305 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
- BREEZY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED BLOWING DUST. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
- SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING GILA/BLACK RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS MORNING. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SACRAMENTO MTNS.
- FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK. EXPECT STRONG WINDS/BLOWING DUST
AGAIN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO.
THE MAIN LOW APPEARS TO BE OVER NW NEW MEXICO WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SE ARIZONA. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IS SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW
THE SECONDARY LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
GILA/BLACK RANGE AND WESTERN LOWLANDS. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL LOW
BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR THE GILA. THUS, EXTENDED
THE WINTER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.
HI-RES MODELS ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND THEY ALSO
SHOW A DEVELOPMENT OF SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI'S AND VERY MODEST CAPE VALUES. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION OF A QUICK MODERATE SHOWER (SNOW SACS, RAIN ELSEWHERE)
BUT FOR NOW KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SACS TO JUST AN INCH
OR TWO. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE BY AROUND 5-6PM THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE FINALLY GET A BREAK WITH SOME DECENT
WEATHER AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. ENJOY WHILE IT LASTS BECAUSE...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING MORE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. IT'S A QUICK HITTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT BREEZY WINDS WILL WILL CONTINUE. THE SECOND SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
THURSDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE, BRINGING IT OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS STILL GOING
TO CREATE QUITE STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AS A DEEP LEE-SIDE LOW
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO. RIGHT NOW THESE WINDS ARE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA, AND OF COURSE MORE BLOWING DUST IS
ALMOST A SURE THING. THIS SYSTEM ALSO BRINGS PRETTY GOOD COLD
PUNCH WITH IT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IN THE MOUNTAINS. RIGHT NOW JUST LOOKING AT MINOR SNOW
IMPACTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH VARIABLE SKIES AND
BASES/CEILINGS AS LOW AS 050. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, TOPPING OUT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE 270-300 SHIFTING TO 330-360 FOR MOST SITES
BETWEEN 0Z AND 3Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
WE GET A BREAK IN THE SHORT TERM FROM THE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
AS WINDS, THOUGH BREEZY TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHER
HUMIDITY. WINDS EVEN LIGHTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH HUMIDITY
ALSO LOWERING, SO CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY IN ELEVATED CATEGORY.
HOWEVER MORE WINDS AND BAD FIRE CONDITIONS MOVE IN AFTER THAT.
BOTH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS PUSHING
BOTH DAYS BACK INTO CRITICAL CONDITIONS, WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA
POSSIBLY BEING MET OVER THE LOWLAND ZONES.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 20-27% TODAY, DECREASING TO 8-15% SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. MOUNTAINS 35-50% TODAY, DECREASING TO 15-22% SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. VENT RATES MOSTLY EXCELLENT TODAY, FAIR-GOOD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND EXCELLENT AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 36 65 38 / 20 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 28 60 33 / 20 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 30 64 32 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 26 64 31 / 20 20 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 32 18 45 23 / 40 20 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 31 64 34 / 30 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 26 56 29 / 30 0 0 0
DEMING 56 29 65 31 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 26 65 29 / 20 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 37 64 40 / 20 10 0 0
DELL CITY 55 27 64 29 / 20 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 58 30 66 31 / 10 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 47 29 59 35 / 20 10 0 0
FABENS 57 30 65 33 / 20 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 54 31 63 34 / 20 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 36 65 40 / 20 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 26 64 28 / 20 10 0 0
HATCH 57 28 67 29 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 57 32 65 33 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 29 62 31 / 20 20 0 0
MAYHILL 42 21 56 25 / 60 20 0 0
MESCALERO 41 19 55 24 / 50 20 0 0
TIMBERON 41 18 54 22 / 40 20 0 0
WINSTON 44 17 58 20 / 40 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 50 28 63 30 / 30 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 52 25 64 26 / 20 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 20 61 20 / 30 0 0 0
HURLEY 45 23 59 26 / 20 0 0 0
CLIFF 49 22 65 20 / 30 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 17 62 16 / 30 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 28 62 31 / 20 0 0 0
ANIMAS 57 28 67 28 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 26 64 28 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 30 64 31 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 30 60 34 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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