831
FXUS64 KEPZ 090526
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1026 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
- FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
- TUESDAY STARTS A STRETCH OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS NEARLY DAILY
- THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY WINDY DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
AN UL LOW IS MOVING THROUGH NM THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD-CORE DYNAMICS EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CWA. THIS HAS LED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER CORES EVEN PRODUCING GRAUPEL OR SLEET TO THE
LOWLANDS. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT (LESS THAN 0.10" LIQUID, 1-2" SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS) AND MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TO BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER
TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY BUT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT EACH AFTERNOON WITH MONDAY A TAD
BREEZIER THAN SUNDAY.
OUR NEXT UL STORM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A TROUGH ON
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL KICK OFF A STRETCH OF BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER.
FOR TUESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY EVENING, BUT THE EXIT REGION OF A 85KT
H500 JET WILL REACH THE NM-AZ STATE LINE BY EVENING WITH A 998 MB
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
ENOUGH SO TO FOSTER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. THIS S/W IS VERY
QUICK MOVING WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE JET WILL KEEP
EAST SLOPE AREAS BREEZY TO WINDY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE REST OF THE DAY REMAINING BREEZY IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE
OF A S/W RIDGE ALOFT. WESTERN AREAS AND MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE
LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS QUICK MOVING S/W ON TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST GETS REAL INTERESTING BY THURSDAY. A DEEP, HIGH-
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, REACHING A LINE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADA-PACIFIC COAST
SSE THROUGH WESTERN WA, INTO OR, THROUGH NV, DOWN TO THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. GFS SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE 120 KT H500 JET DEVELOPING
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH , LOCATED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF ARIZONA, QUICKLY SWINGING TOWARD NM'S INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE RACING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE,
988 LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN CO THURSDAY EVENING WILL RAPIDLY
DEEPEN TO A 969 MB LOW WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO FURTHER
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE EURO HAS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CYCLONE (100KT H500 JET AND 986 MB
LOW TO 977 MB LOW) BUT IS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE.
WE'RE FORTUNATE THE SYSTEM IS TIMED AS IT IS. PROVIDED FORECAST
HOLDS, WE WILL SEE TWO WINDY DAYS INSTEAD OF ONE EXTREMELY WINDY
DAY WITH STRONG WINDS FOR MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS ALONG
WITH FIRE AND DUST HEADLINES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED AND
NBM PROBABILITIES VERIFY THIS WITH MOST OF THE CWA ALREADY AT 100%
PROBABILITY FOR MAX GUSTS OVER 50 MPH FOR FRIDAY. THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS WILL MAKE USE OF ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM,
SO JUST ABOUT EVERYONE HAS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE TO SEE
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW250. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
VERY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW AS MIN RH
VALUES FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS. MONDAY WILL SEE EVEN LOWER MIN
RH VALUES WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH, SO NO CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR EITHER DAY.
VENTING WILL RANGE POOR TO GOOD FOR TOMORROW IMPROVING FOR MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR MOUNTAINS AND
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH 20-FOOT SPEEDS TOPPING OUT
15 TO 25 MPH. THESE SPEEDS WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
SINGLE-DIGITS, LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. ERCS ARE A BIT
OF A WILD CARD WITH TODAY'S PRECIP, BUT AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT.
THUS, SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. FUELS LOOK
WETTEST IN THE GILA AND IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. FOR THIS REASON, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
THE NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS AND FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THE
TEXAS ZONES WERE EXCLUDED AS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
IF PRESENT FORECAST HOLDS, THURSDAY WILL NEED FIRE HEADLINES AT
SOME POINT. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY BUT WITH
IMPROVEMENTS IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 35 66 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 27 60 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 29 64 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 26 63 30 69 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 18 45 23 50 / 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 31 64 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 26 60 31 63 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 28 66 30 71 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 24 65 28 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 37 64 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 27 64 28 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 29 66 31 76 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 31 58 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 30 65 33 75 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 31 63 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 35 65 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 25 64 28 69 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 26 67 28 72 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 31 65 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 28 61 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 21 55 27 64 / 30 0 0 0
MESCALERO 20 55 25 60 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 18 53 24 59 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 19 58 22 63 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 29 63 31 68 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 25 64 28 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 23 62 28 64 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 24 63 28 65 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 19 68 23 72 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 24 63 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 28 61 32 64 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 26 66 26 73 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 24 63 27 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 29 63 30 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 31 60 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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