364
FXUS64 KEPZ 090956
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
356 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 355 AM MST SUN MAR 9 2025
- FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY.
- SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- BLOWING DUST/POOR VISIBILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON THOSE DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN MAR 9 2025
TODAY AND MONDAY, WE GET A WELL DESERVED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT
WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEK, AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN, REPLACING
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR WINDS/DUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY BUT THEN WARM
BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AS THE WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
(THOUGH WINDS STILL LIGHT).
THE DUST TRAIN MOVES BACK IN STARTING TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF
PACIFIC STORMS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA/SW ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE OF WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. LOOKS TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR WINDS, BUT STILL EXPECT
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH..A LITTLE
LIGHTER OVER FAR WEST TEXAS. BLOWING DUST IS ALL BUT GUARANTEED,
WITH WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOWING LUNA, DONA ANA, EL PASO, AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES AS THE MOST LIKELY FOR PATCHY DENSE DUST.
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
THE LOWLANDS LIKELY WILL SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
(7000-8000 FT). THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, WITH THE SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. SHORT
WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER WEDNESDAY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE TUESDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. THE
UPPER LOW REACHES SOUTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, TRAVELS
ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO/COLORADO STATE LINE FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
EXITS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY,
IF THIS TIMING HOLDS, WE WILL BE SPARED EVEN WORSE WINDS/DUST, AS
THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT OFF THE HOOK; VERY STRONG WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING DUST WILL STILL HIT THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS
THURSDAY OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP MOST AREAS ALL NIGHT AND THE 50-60 MPH GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG EAST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS. WINDS FRIDAY
STILL AROUND 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS A BIT LOWER-JUST TO 50 MPH. ONCE
AGAIN LUNA COUNTY EAST OVER TO HUDSPETH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE DUST/POOR VISIBILITY ON THURSDAY. MORE
WESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY MEAN DENSEST DUST MAY JUST DEMING TO EL PASO
CORRIDOR. STRONG COLD ADVECTION MAY ALSO HELP INHIBIT SOME
BLOWING DUST DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AGAIN LIMITED THOUGH THE
LOITER TIME OVER THE AREA IS LONGER. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8000 FT AT
THE START OF PRECIP THURSDAY EVENING RAPIDLY CRASH DOWN TO NEAR
THE SURFACE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HENCE MANY LOWLAND SITES COULD SEE
A BRIEF TIME OF LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE OVER
THE LOWLANDS. MOUNTAINS ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE MODERATE,
ESPECIALLY THE GILA/BLACK RANGE AREA.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND
FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS STILL BREEZY SATURDAY BUT
LIGHT ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW250. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN MAR 9 2025
NO FIRE CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT MAJOR CONCERNS AGAIN AFTER
MONDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN
EVEN A BIT STRONGER ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. COMBINED WITH OVERALL DRY
FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY, CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON ALL
3 OF THOSE DAYS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LOWLAND ZONES
TUESDAY AND ONLY SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER REL HUMIDITY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL KEEP MOST AREAS JUST OUT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
RECENT PRECIP OVER THE GILA/BLACK RANGE ZONE MAY ALSO HELP
MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE FIRE CONDITIONS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 8-13% THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN 18-25% WEDNESDAY.
MOUNTAINS 12-20% THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN 25-35% WEDNESDAY. VENT
RATES FAIR-GOOD TODAY AND MONDAY, THEN VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 38 72 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 32 69 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 69 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 30 69 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 20 52 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 69 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 30 63 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 30 71 33 75 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 70 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 40 70 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 28 71 33 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 31 75 36 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 35 65 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 33 74 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 33 70 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 38 70 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 26 69 29 73 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 28 72 29 76 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 32 71 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 30 68 31 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 25 65 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 23 61 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 22 60 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 20 63 20 65 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 30 68 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 26 69 27 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 20 64 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 27 65 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 21 69 24 70 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 16 67 18 66 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 31 64 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 26 73 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 27 70 33 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 30 73 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 33 67 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page