928
FXUS64 KEPZ 091150
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
550 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 427 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
- FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY.
- SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- BLOWING DUST/POOR VISIBILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON THOSE DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN MAR 9 2025
TODAY AND MONDAY, WE GET A WELL DESERVED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT
WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEK, AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN, REPLACING
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR WINDS/DUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY BUT THEN WARM
BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AS THE WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
(THOUGH WINDS STILL LIGHT).
THE DUST TRAIN MOVES BACK IN STARTING TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF
PACIFIC STORMS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA/SW ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE OF WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. LOOKS TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR WINDS, BUT STILL EXPECT
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH..A LITTLE
LIGHTER OVER FAR WEST TEXAS. BLOWING DUST IS ALL BUT GUARANTEED,
WITH WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOWING LUNA, DONA ANA, EL PASO, AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES AS THE MOST LIKELY FOR PATCHY DENSE DUST.
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
THE LOWLANDS LIKELY WILL SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
(7000-8000 FT). THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, WITH THE SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. SHORT
WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER WEDNESDAY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE TUESDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. THE
UPPER LOW REACHES SOUTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, TRAVELS
ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO/COLORADO STATE LINE FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
EXITS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY,
IF THIS TIMING HOLDS, WE WILL BE SPARED EVEN WORSE WINDS/DUST, AS
THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT OFF THE HOOK; VERY STRONG WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING DUST WILL STILL HIT THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS
THURSDAY OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP MOST AREAS ALL NIGHT AND THE 50-60 MPH GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG EAST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS. WINDS FRIDAY
STILL AROUND 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS A BIT LOWER-JUST TO 50 MPH. ONCE
AGAIN LUNA COUNTY EAST OVER TO HUDSPETH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE DUST/POOR VISIBILITY ON THURSDAY. MORE
WESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY MEAN DENSEST DUST MAY JUST DEMING TO EL PASO
CORRIDOR. STRONG COLD ADVECTION MAY ALSO HELP INHIBIT SOME
BLOWING DUST DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AGAIN LIMITED THOUGH THE
LOITER TIME OVER THE AREA IS LONGER. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8000 FT AT
THE START OF PRECIP THURSDAY EVENING RAPIDLY CRASH DOWN TO NEAR
THE SURFACE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HENCE MANY LOWLAND SITES COULD SEE
A BRIEF TIME OF LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE OVER
THE LOWLANDS. MOUNTAINS ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE MODERATE,
ESPECIALLY THE GILA/BLACK RANGE AREA.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND
FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS STILL BREEZY SATURDAY BUT
LIGHT ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE, BUT OFTEN NORTH, AOB 8 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN MAR 9 2025
NO FIRE CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT MAJOR CONCERNS AGAIN AFTER
MONDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN
EVEN A BIT STRONGER ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. COMBINED WITH OVERALL DRY
FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY, CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON ALL
3 OF THOSE DAYS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LOWLAND ZONES
TUESDAY AND ONLY SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER REL HUMIDITY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL KEEP MOST AREAS JUST OUT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
RECENT PRECIP OVER THE GILA/BLACK RANGE ZONE MAY ALSO HELP
MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE FIRE CONDITIONS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 8-13% THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN 18-25% WEDNESDAY.
MOUNTAINS 12-20% THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN 25-35% WEDNESDAY. VENT
RATES FAIR-GOOD TODAY AND MONDAY, THEN VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 38 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 32 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 63 31 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 62 30 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 20 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 33 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 58 30 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 65 30 71 33 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 28 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 40 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 63 28 71 33 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 31 75 36 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 57 35 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 64 33 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 63 33 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 38 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 63 26 69 29 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 66 28 72 29 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 32 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 60 30 68 31 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 54 25 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 54 23 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 52 22 60 25 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 57 20 63 20 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 62 30 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 63 26 69 27 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 61 20 64 23 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 62 27 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 65 21 69 24 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 62 16 67 18 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 60 31 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 26 73 35 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 62 27 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 62 30 73 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 59 33 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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