162
FXUS64 KEPZ 100528
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1128 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
- FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY.
- SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- BLOWING DUST/POOR VISIBILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON BOTH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS WARMED OUR TEMPERATURES FROM
WHAT WE SAW ON SATURDAY AND KEPT OUR WINDS RELATIVELY CALM. THE
RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST ON MONDAY, BUT STILL CLOSE BY ENOUGH TO
GIVE US ANOTHER NICE DAY, BUT IT IS MARCH, AND YOU KNOW THAT CAN'T
LAST.
ON TUESDAY A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSHING ONTO
THE WEST COAST. WHILE THE LEE SIDE TROUGH LOOKS PRETTY STRONG,
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST IS NOT IN THE BEST PLACE FOR
REALLY STRONG WINDS. RIGHT NOW THE PROBABILITIES OF SEEING 25 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE PRETTY LOW (10 TO 30%). PROBABILITIES ARE A
HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THAT IS TO BE EXPECTED. RIGHT NOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS LOOKING WINDY (20 TO 30 MPH), BUT WINDS LOOK
TO FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS (30 TO 40 MPH). HAVING SAID THAT,
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THAT IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH TO GET BLOWING
DUST GOING, SO WE WILL LIKELY (60 TO 80%) SEE AT LEAST PATCHY
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL
ALIGNED TO BRING DUST INTO EL PASO FROM THE DUST SOURCE REGIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND GIVE US CHANCE (30 TO 50%)
OF LIGHT LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS (MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE) OR
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TO OUR EAST, BUT IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO GIVE US A BREEZY AFTERNOON.
ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF THE COMING WEEK, WE WILL SEE
A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS APPROACH THE REGION. LIKE
TUESDAY'S SYSTEM, THE END OF THE WEEK'S SYSTEM IS NOT WELL TIMED
FOR REALLY STRONG WINDS. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY AND GIVE US WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LIKELY AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. THE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP IN SOME MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR. WE WILL SEE SNOW IN AREA MOUNTAINS (ESPECIALLY THE GILA
REGION) AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXES INTO THE RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY
MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. FRIDAY IS ALSO LOOKING
WINDY, BUT WITH THE PRECIPITATION, WE MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH BLOWING
DUST AS WE WILL ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DASH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE
OUR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES, ON MONDAY WE WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES WHICH WILL PUT OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. THEN ON TUESDAY, WITH THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS, WE
WILL SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING TO GET OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER, BUT THEN WE BOUNCE BACK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WE WILL SEE AROUND 5 DEGREES OF WARMING EACH
DAY TO GET OUR HIGHS BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
VMC THROUGH 0-24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS DRIVEN BY DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT AOB 5
KNOTS, THEN 150-180 AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND POSSIBLE DUST IMPACTS RETURN ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE QUIET DAY ON MONDAY THAN WE WILL MOVE INTO A
MORE ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN. ON TUESDAY, WE WILL HAVE SINGLE
DIGIT MIN RH'S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE TEENS IN AREA
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SAME TIME AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL GIVE US BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. MIN RH'S IN THE
LOWLANDS OF NEW MEXICO WILL EASILY HIT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, BUT
THE PATTERN FOR WINDS IS NOT GREAT. ERC'S ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR
RECORD HIGH VALUES AND HDWI VALUES HAVE A SPIKE ON TUESDAY. RFTI
VALUES ARE THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD, AND THE VALUES ARE ALMOST ALL
MADE UP BY THE RH COMPONENT THAT IS BECAUSE THE WINDS ARE
STRUGGLING TO REACH CRITICAL VALUES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
WAY WEST OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. THAT IS NOT THE BEST PLACEMENT FOR
STRONG WINDS. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY, SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE. ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION. THE SECOND TROUGH WILL HAVE STRONGER WINDS, BUT IT WILL
ALSO HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION. SO AGAIN, WE WILL BE
CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 39 72 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 32 68 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 32 68 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 31 69 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 26 51 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 68 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 31 63 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 31 70 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 69 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 71 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 29 71 32 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 31 75 36 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 37 65 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 34 74 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 34 69 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 69 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 29 69 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 28 71 31 75 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 33 70 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 33 67 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 29 66 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 61 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 26 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 23 62 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 32 67 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 28 68 31 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 29 65 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 28 65 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 23 71 27 71 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 28 66 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 64 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 26 73 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 27 69 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 30 71 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 34 66 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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