042
FXUS64 KEPZ 101120
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
520 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
- FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
- SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- BLOWING DUST/POOR VISIBILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON BOTH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
OVERALL, NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. AN ACTIVE
SPRING-TIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST HALF AND MIDDLE OF MARCH LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW WITH PERSISTENT WEST CONUS
TROUGHING AND EAST CONUS RIDGING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH A TRAIN OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
TRAVERSING ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. FOR THE LOCAL AREA, THIS MEANS
CONTINUED PERIODS OF WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH MARGINAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
..TODAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL OVERLAY NEW MEXICO AS IT SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NM WILL PROMOTE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
..TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITTING OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN CA WILL TREK EASTWARD DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. AS IT COMES ON SHORE, SWERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE A ~1000MB
SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF SOUTHEASTERN CO WITH MODEST
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NM. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DOESN'T LOOK TOO STRONG, A 30-40
KNOTS SW TO NE ORIENTATED 700MB JET WILL OVERLAY SOUTHERN NM. WITH
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MIXING UP TO 700 TO 750 MBS, THESE WINDS WILL
TRANSLATE/MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS DON'T LOOK PRODUCT WORTHY BY ALL MEANS, BUT WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY. THAT SAID, EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH IN SOME SPOTS. AGAIN, GIVEN ANTECEDENT
WARM/DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND DROUGHT STATUS ACROSS THE REGION,
BLOWING DUST WILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOCAL AND AZ, IT
WEAK AND OPEN UP INTO A WAVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE MAIN CORE OF
THIS OPEN WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NM. WITH
WHATEVER MOISTURE THIS WAVE HOLDS ONTO(NOT MUCH AT ALL) AS IT MOVE
ACROSS THE ARID DESERT SW, IT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN POPS.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
..THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ATTENTION TURNS TO LATE NEXT WORK WEEK AS THE NEXT AND MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. UPPER FLOW PATTERN
WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED WITH DEEP SWERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THURSDAY.
A STRONG 980-985MB SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF
CENTRAL CO WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHTLY PACKED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NM. THE COMBINATION BETWEEN THE SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL SETUP AND SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS ON THURSDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45-55 MPH. ONCE AGAIN, BLOWING DUST WILL BE AN ISSUE ON THURSDAY
ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
TROUGH AXIS AND STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST, REMAINING GUSTY. MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THIS LARGE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH. WE WILL SEE
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT LOWLAND RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION. WORTH MENTIONING, GIVEN THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY. BREEZY WINDS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES LAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC. WINDS LIGHT AND
VRB THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 4-9 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY AND TUESDAY, BEFORE A SHORT STINT OF RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY.
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME. THIS COUPLED WITH CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND THE ANOMALOUS TO NEAR RECORD HIGH ERC VALUES, WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL OVERLAY NEW MEXICO AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE FOR TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS
NM WILL PROMOTE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 7-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE VENTILATION RATES.
FOR TUESDAY, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR NMZ111, NMZ112, AND NMZ113 AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION, DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH. MIN RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN CRITICAL, BELOW 15 PERCENT AREAWIDE.
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MIN RHS IMPROVING, INCREASING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ATTENTION
TURNS TO LATE NEXT WORK WEEK AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE NEXT AND MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED WITH DEEP SWERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THURSDAY. A STRONG 980-
985MB SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF CENTRAL CO
WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHTLY PACKED SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NM. THE COMBINATION BETWEEN THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL SETUP
AND SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45-55
MPH. AS OF NOW, CRITICAL MIN RH VALUES RESIDE OVER THE DESERT
LOWLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RGV, WITH HIGH RHS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 42 77 47 69 / 0 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 38 72 40 64 / 0 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 36 73 39 65 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 35 73 39 68 / 0 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 31 50 28 44 / 0 0 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 72 40 69 / 0 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 35 64 35 57 / 0 0 40 20
DEMING 34 73 39 66 / 0 0 20 10
LORDSBURG 33 72 36 64 / 0 0 60 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 44 74 48 68 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 32 75 39 69 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 36 79 41 71 / 0 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 41 69 41 60 / 0 0 10 10
FABENS 37 77 43 70 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 37 74 43 67 / 0 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 44 73 47 67 / 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 32 73 40 68 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 32 75 42 70 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 37 75 43 68 / 0 0 20 10
OROGRANDE 35 72 42 66 / 0 0 10 10
MAYHILL 34 63 34 57 / 0 0 10 10
MESCALERO 32 60 31 56 / 0 0 10 10
TIMBERON 29 59 28 55 / 0 0 10 10
WINSTON 25 64 27 61 / 0 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 35 71 38 67 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 30 73 37 69 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 33 63 31 58 / 0 0 40 20
HURLEY 31 68 33 60 / 0 0 30 10
CLIFF 27 71 30 64 / 0 0 40 20
MULE CREEK 33 64 33 59 / 0 0 40 30
FAYWOOD 36 66 37 60 / 0 0 20 10
ANIMAS 35 73 37 68 / 0 0 60 20
HACHITA 32 72 37 66 / 0 0 30 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 72 38 66 / 0 0 50 20
CLOVERDALE 37 65 37 61 / 0 0 60 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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