066
FXUS64 KEPZ 101716
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1116 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1036 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
- FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
- SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- BLOWING DUST/POOR VISIBILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON BOTH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
OVERALL, NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. AN ACTIVE
SPRING-TIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST HALF AND MIDDLE OF MARCH LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW WITH PERSISTENT WEST CONUS
TROUGHING AND EAST CONUS RIDGING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH A TRAIN OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
TRAVERSING ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. FOR THE LOCAL AREA, THIS MEANS
CONTINUED PERIODS OF WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH MARGINAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
..TODAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL OVERLAY NEW MEXICO AS IT SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NM WILL PROMOTE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
..TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITTING OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN CA WILL TREK EASTWARD DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. AS IT COMES ON SHORE, SWERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE A ~1000MB
SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF SOUTHEASTERN CO WITH MODEST
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NM. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DOESN'T LOOK TOO STRONG, A 30-40
KNOTS SW TO NE ORIENTATED 700MB JET WILL OVERLAY SOUTHERN NM. WITH
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MIXING UP TO 700 TO 750 MBS, THESE WINDS WILL
TRANSLATE/MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS DON'T LOOK PRODUCT WORTHY BY ALL MEANS, BUT WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY. THAT SAID, EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH IN SOME SPOTS. AGAIN, GIVEN ANTECEDENT
WARM/DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND DROUGHT STATUS ACROSS THE REGION,
BLOWING DUST WILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOCAL AND AZ, IT
WEAK AND OPEN UP INTO A WAVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE MAIN CORE OF
THIS OPEN WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NM. WITH
WHATEVER MOISTURE THIS WAVE HOLDS ONTO(NOT MUCH AT ALL) AS IT MOVE
ACROSS THE ARID DESERT SW, IT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN POPS.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
..THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ATTENTION TURNS TO LATE NEXT WORK WEEK AS THE NEXT AND MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. UPPER FLOW PATTERN
WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED WITH DEEP SWERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THURSDAY.
A STRONG 980-985MB SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF
CENTRAL CO WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHTLY PACKED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NM. THE COMBINATION BETWEEN THE SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL SETUP AND SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS ON THURSDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45-55 MPH. ONCE AGAIN, BLOWING DUST WILL BE AN ISSUE ON THURSDAY
ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
TROUGH AXIS AND STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST, REMAINING GUSTY. MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THIS LARGE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH. WE WILL SEE
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT LOWLAND RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION. WORTH MENTIONING, GIVEN THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY. BREEZY WINDS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES LAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
P6SM SKC-FEW250 THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AOB 12KTS THROUGH PERIOD BUT WILL START TO APPROACH
15KTS BETWEEN 16Z-18Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY AND TUESDAY, BEFORE A SHORT STINT OF RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY.
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME. THIS COUPLED WITH CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND THE ANOMALOUS TO NEAR RECORD HIGH ERC VALUES, WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL OVERLAY NEW MEXICO AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE FOR TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS
NM WILL PROMOTE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 7-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE VENTILATION RATES.
FOR TUESDAY, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR NMZ111, NMZ112, AND NMZ113 AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION, DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH. MIN RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN CRITICAL, BELOW 15 PERCENT AREAWIDE.
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MIN RHS IMPROVING, INCREASING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ATTENTION
TURNS TO LATE NEXT WORK WEEK AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE NEXT AND MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED WITH DEEP SWERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THURSDAY. A STRONG 980-
985MB SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF CENTRAL CO
WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHTLY PACKED SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NM. THE COMBINATION BETWEEN THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL SETUP
AND SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45-55
MPH. AS OF NOW, CRITICAL MIN RH VALUES RESIDE OVER THE DESERT
LOWLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RGV, WITH HIGH RHS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 40 77 49 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 68 40 72 44 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 68 33 74 41 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 69 33 73 41 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 51 29 49 27 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 34 72 44 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 62 34 64 37 / 0 0 0 40
DEMING 70 32 73 41 / 0 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 70 31 72 38 / 0 0 0 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 38 74 49 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 72 30 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 33 79 43 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 64 35 69 43 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 74 35 77 45 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 69 34 74 45 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 42 73 49 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 68 26 73 42 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 72 30 75 44 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 70 35 75 45 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 67 33 73 44 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 66 32 63 38 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 61 27 61 34 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 59 27 59 30 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 62 23 64 32 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 67 32 70 42 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 68 28 73 40 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 64 16 63 33 / 0 0 0 40
HURLEY 65 28 68 35 / 0 0 0 30
CLIFF 72 23 70 35 / 0 0 0 40
MULE CREEK 67 17 65 35 / 0 0 0 40
FAYWOOD 64 31 66 39 / 0 0 0 20
ANIMAS 72 31 73 39 / 0 0 0 50
HACHITA 70 29 72 39 / 0 0 0 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 33 72 40 / 0 0 0 30
CLOVERDALE 67 35 65 39 / 0 0 0 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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