194
FXUS64 KEPZ 102333
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
533 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
- SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- BLOWING DUST/POOR VISIBILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON BOTH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
THIS UPCOMING WEEK IS LOOKING A LOT LIKE LAST WEEK, EXCEPT WE
WON'T GET THE LIGHT WIND/PLEASANT WEATHER LAST WEDNESDAY BROUGHT.
A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
WITH BREEZY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DAILY. THE INFLUENCE FROM THE
FIRST STORM WILL START TUESDAY AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES
ONSHORE IN THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION. THIS ONE WILL JUST BRING SOME
OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE
INCREASE. LOOKING LIKE A 15-25G40MPH DAY FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT
AROUND HUDSPTH CO WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHTER THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. THIS SYSTEM OPENS UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE AZ/NM AREA TUE
NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING SOME MOISTURE WITH IT. LOWERED NBM POPS A
LITTLE INTO THE CHANCE RANGE OUT WEST AND TAPERED DOWN UNDER 20 BY
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE FAIRLY FAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PREVENT THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM IMPACTING THE
AREA, BUT WE WILL STILL SEE BREEZY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY WITH DUST
POTENTIAL BEING ON THE LOWER END. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUE.
THE NEXT STORM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION BY LATE THU. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY GET UP TO AT LEAST ADVISORY SPEEDS WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR BLOWING DUST WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME DUST STORM WARNINGS.
TEMPERATURES WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL WARM BACK UP TO
CLOSE TO TUESDAY HIGHS. NBM POPS DID SEEM A LITTLE HIGH FOR THU
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM
DUE TO IT'S HIGHER AMPLUTUDE. DID GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR THU
NIGHT OUT WEST, ALTHOUGH AGAIN BELOW NBM WHICH WERE CLOSE TO 100
PERCENT. TAPERED DOWN PRECIP CHANCS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
WELL FOR FRI MORNING AS THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY START TO LOSE
MOISTURE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO, BUT COULD SEE SOMETHING LIKE
THIS LAST SATURDAY DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES DROP BACK ANOTHER 10-15
DEGREES FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER DAY WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS WHICH
SHOULD MEAN LESS DUST THAN THU BUT NOT ZERO.
THE FINAL SYSTEM IS LESS OF A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH AND MORE OF
JUST A DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. NBM DIDN'T HAVE ANY POPS BUT MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME LOW MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN DYNAMICS.
TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND FOR SUN/MON WITH A BREAK IN THE
WINDS AS UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER, BUT THEY DO INCREASE GOING INTO
MONAS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
OTHER THAN LINGERING GUSTINESS EARLY THIS EVENING FOR KTCS, LIGHT
WINDS AOB 8KTS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING TOMORROW. WINDS
INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST, GUSTING TO 25-30KTS
WITH PATCHY BLDU. VIS REDUCTIONS TO AS LOW AS 2 MILES ARE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT
INTO TAFS FOR THIS CYCLE. MAINLY SKC PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A
SERIES OF STORM SYSTEM CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL START TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME, THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL BUT THERE WILL BE
CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS DAILY SOMEWHERE OVER THE
BORDERLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TUE
AND THU THE WARMEST WITH A 10-15 DEGREE DROP FOR WED/FRI. RH'S
WILL BE LOWEST TUE AND THEN THU WITH SOME REBOUND WED/FRI BUT WITH
THE EXPECTED WINDS, THERE WILL BE CONCERNS GIVEN NEAR RECORD HIGH
ERC'S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 40 77 49 70 / 0 0 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 40 72 43 64 / 0 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 33 74 41 66 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 33 73 41 67 / 0 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 29 49 25 44 / 0 0 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 34 72 42 68 / 0 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 34 64 37 57 / 0 0 40 20
DEMING 32 73 41 67 / 0 0 20 10
LORDSBURG 31 72 38 63 / 0 0 40 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 38 74 49 67 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 30 75 41 67 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 33 79 42 71 / 0 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 35 69 43 60 / 0 0 10 20
FABENS 35 77 44 70 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 34 74 44 66 / 0 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 42 73 49 67 / 0 0 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 26 73 38 67 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 30 75 44 70 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 35 75 45 67 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 33 73 44 66 / 0 0 10 20
MAYHILL 32 63 37 57 / 0 0 10 10
MESCALERO 27 61 33 55 / 0 0 10 20
TIMBERON 27 59 30 54 / 0 0 10 20
WINSTON 23 64 30 61 / 0 0 10 0
HILLSBORO 32 70 40 66 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 28 73 39 68 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 16 63 33 58 / 0 0 40 20
HURLEY 28 68 35 60 / 0 0 30 10
CLIFF 23 70 33 62 / 0 0 40 20
MULE CREEK 17 65 35 58 / 0 0 40 30
FAYWOOD 31 66 38 60 / 0 0 20 10
ANIMAS 31 73 39 67 / 0 0 50 10
HACHITA 29 72 39 65 / 0 0 40 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 33 72 40 67 / 0 0 30 20
CLOVERDALE 35 65 39 60 / 0 0 50 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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