577
FXUS64 KEPZ 112117
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
317 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
- GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING, SOME BLOWING DUST IN EL PASO
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDY WITH PERIODS OF
MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, LOWLAND BLOWING DUST. WORST
CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE WINDY IN EAST AND NORTHEAST EL
PASO.
- MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2025
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PERK UP, THOUGH MOST
GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. SOME PATCHY BLOWING
DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE NEAR AND SOUTH OF DEMING, AND IN THE
HATCH VALLEY. A MORE NOTABLE DUST PLUME EXTENDS FROM NEAR
ASCENSION INTO SANTA TERESA, AND WILL WORK INTO WEST EL PASO
SHORTLY. SATELLITE AND BACK-WINDOW OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST RELATIVELY
MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY (LIKELY ABOVE 1 MILE).
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT ROLLS INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT, AND
REACHES EL PASO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL WORK
INTO SW NEW MEXICO EARLY IN THE MORNING, WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
TO AROUND 5500-6000 FEET IN THE GILA. SHOWERS WILL SPUTTER AS THEY
ATTEMPT TO PUSH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, BUT WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH OF A BOOST IN HUMIDITY VALUES TO IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY, EVEN AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY. WITH
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE W TO WNW, BLOWING DUST MAY REDEVELOP,
BUT IT'LL BE PATCHY AND LIKELY CONFINED TO AREAS AROUND DEMING
AND PERHAPS EAST TOWARDS LAS CRUCES.
A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH DEEP LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING PERHAPS A LITTLE
FAR TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LOWLANDS
(ESPECIALLY THE EAST SLOPE LOCATIONS) AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST
IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE WIND DIRECTION. THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE IS NOT QUITE IDEAL FOR MAXIMIZING WIND POTENTIAL. A
STRONG JET STREAM AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ENHANCE DYNAMICS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO, AND BRINGING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL AT ELP. EXPECT A VERY WINDY NIGHT ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS AND ORGANS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, AND LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE GILA REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING, AND AROUND AN INCH IN THE SACRAMENTOS AS WELL. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL WORK INTO LAS CRUCES AND PERHAPS EVEN EP BY
DAWN.
IT WILL REMAIN WINDY AND BLUSTERY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST AGAIN FAVORING DEMING TO LAS CRUCES AND AREAS
SOUTH OF EL PASO WITH A 280-290 WIND DIRECTION.
A PAIR OF FAST-MOVING SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING A
FEW MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY SETTLE DOWN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AGAIN, THE WORST CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF WIND AND DUST WILL LIKELY
BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2025
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND BEGIN INCREASING WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 KNOTS COULD LOFT SOME PATCHY DUST, MOST LIKELY AT DMN AND
LRU.
SCATTERED LOWLAND SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT. BREEZY WSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2025
INCREASING WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND BOOST
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS A WIDER AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE ELEVATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF FAR WEST
TEXAS, BUT SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER-10S FOR PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO IN
PARTS OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
DROPPED FOR WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING US TO FOCUS ON THE BIGGER IMPACTS
THURSDAY.
WORSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS STRONGER
WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER HUMIDITY
MAY ENCROACH ON FAR SW NEW MEXICO AGAIN. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF DESERT MOUNTAIN RANGES AND ACROSS THE SACRAMENTOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL WORK INTO SW NEW MEXICO, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GILA
REGION AND AND SACRAMENTOS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT IT WILL BE
COOLER AND BLUSTERY, WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGING ABOUT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL HELP MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER THE WEEKEND.
QUIETER BUT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 68 44 75 / 0 30 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 39 63 38 73 / 0 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 38 64 36 71 / 10 30 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 39 67 39 71 / 0 20 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 27 44 30 48 / 0 30 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 39 67 39 69 / 0 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 34 55 35 60 / 30 40 0 10
DEMING 38 65 35 71 / 20 30 0 0
LORDSBURG 34 63 34 68 / 50 50 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 66 45 74 / 0 20 0 0
DELL CITY 38 67 36 74 / 0 20 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 39 69 38 79 / 0 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 41 59 40 67 / 0 30 0 0
FABENS 41 68 39 77 / 0 20 0 0
SANTA TERESA 41 64 39 72 / 10 30 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 46 66 45 71 / 0 30 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 39 66 37 71 / 0 20 0 0
HATCH 41 69 36 73 / 10 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 67 39 73 / 20 30 0 0
OROGRANDE 39 64 38 70 / 0 30 0 0
MAYHILL 34 56 35 60 / 0 30 0 0
MESCALERO 31 55 33 58 / 0 20 0 0
TIMBERON 27 53 30 58 / 0 30 0 0
WINSTON 26 59 26 60 / 10 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 36 65 35 67 / 10 20 0 0
SPACEPORT 35 68 34 70 / 0 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 31 56 32 60 / 30 50 0 10
HURLEY 31 58 32 63 / 30 30 0 0
CLIFF 29 62 29 67 / 40 50 0 10
MULE CREEK 32 57 33 61 / 50 60 0 10
FAYWOOD 35 59 36 64 / 20 30 0 0
ANIMAS 36 66 36 69 / 70 50 0 0
HACHITA 36 64 35 68 / 40 40 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 64 36 68 / 50 40 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 59 39 61 / 70 40 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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