918
FXUS64 KEPZ 120523
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1123 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 242 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2025
- SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- BLOWING DUST/POOR VISIBILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON BOTH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2025
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PERK UP, THOUGH MOST
GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. SOME PATCHY BLOWING
DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE NEAR AND SOUTH OF DEMING, AND IN THE
HATCH VALLEY. A MORE NOTABLE DUST PLUME EXTENDS FROM NEAR
ASCENSION INTO SANTA TERESA, AND WILL WORK INTO WEST EL PASO
SHORTLY. SATELLITE AND BACK-WINDOW OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST RELATIVELY
MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY (LIKELY ABOVE 1 MILE).
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT ROLLS INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT, AND
REACHES EL PASO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL WORK
INTO SW NEW MEXICO EARLY IN THE MORNING, WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
TO AROUND 5500-6000 FEET IN THE GILA. SHOWERS WILL SPUTTER AS THEY
ATTEMPT TO PUSH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, BUT WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH OF A BOOST IN HUMIDITY VALUES TO IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY, EVEN AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY. WITH
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE W TO WNW, BLOWING DUST MAY REDEVELOP,
BUT IT'LL BE PATCHY AND LIKELY CONFINED TO AREAS AROUND DEMING
AND PERHAPS EAST TOWARDS LAS CRUCES.
A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH DEEP LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING PERHAPS A LITTLE
FAR TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LOWLANDS
(ESPECIALLY THE EAST SLOPE LOCATIONS) AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST
IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE WIND DIRECTION. THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE IS NOT QUITE IDEAL FOR MAXIMIZING WIND POTENTIAL. A
STRONG JET STREAM AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ENHANCE DYNAMICS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO, AND BRINGING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL AT ELP. EXPECT A VERY WINDY NIGHT ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS AND ORGANS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, AND LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE GILA REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING, AND AROUND AN INCH IN THE SACRAMENTOS AS WELL. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL WORK INTO LAS CRUCES AND PERHAPS EVEN EP BY
DAWN.
IT WILL REMAIN WINDY AND BLUSTERY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST AGAIN FAVORING DEMING TO LAS CRUCES AND AREAS
SOUTH OF EL PASO WITH A 280-290 WIND DIRECTION.
A PAIR OF FAST-MOVING SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING A
FEW MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY SETTLE DOWN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AGAIN, THE WORST CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF WIND AND DUST WILL LIKELY
BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2025
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH
SKC-FEW150, BECOMING SCT-BKN060 ACROSS W NM BY 12Z WITH SCATTERED
SHRA. SURFACE WINDS 240-260 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. RA
COVERAGE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AS IT CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 14-16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING, DISSIPATING COMPLETELY
AND CLEARING BY NOON TOMORROW. GUSTY WEST FLOW ALL DAY TOMORROW,
GENERALLY 260-280 AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE LATE MORNING. BLOWING DUST NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR
TOMORROW, BUT PATCHY DUST PLUMES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 4-6
MILES TEMPORALLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2025
INCREASING WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND BOOST
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS A WIDER AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE ELEVATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF FAR WEST
TEXAS, BUT SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER-10S FOR PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO IN
PARTS OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
DROPPED FOR WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING US TO FOCUS ON THE BIGGER IMPACTS
THURSDAY.
WORSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS STRONGER
WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER HUMIDITY
MAY ENCROACH ON FAR SW NEW MEXICO AGAIN. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF DESERT MOUNTAIN RANGES AND ACROSS THE SACRAMENTOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL WORK INTO SW NEW MEXICO, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GILA
REGION AND AND SACRAMENTOS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT IT WILL BE
COOLER AND BLUSTERY, WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGING ABOUT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL HELP MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER THE WEEKEND.
QUIETER BUT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 68 44 75 / 0 30 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 39 62 38 73 / 0 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 38 65 36 71 / 0 20 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 39 67 39 71 / 0 20 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 28 44 30 48 / 0 20 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 39 68 39 69 / 0 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 33 55 35 60 / 30 30 0 10
DEMING 37 66 35 71 / 10 30 0 0
LORDSBURG 34 63 34 68 / 50 50 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 66 45 74 / 0 20 0 0
DELL CITY 38 67 36 74 / 0 20 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 39 69 38 79 / 0 20 0 0
LOMA LINDA 40 59 40 67 / 0 30 0 0
FABENS 42 68 39 77 / 0 20 0 0
SANTA TERESA 41 65 39 72 / 0 20 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 46 66 45 71 / 0 30 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 39 66 37 71 / 0 20 0 0
HATCH 40 69 36 73 / 0 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 66 39 73 / 10 20 0 0
OROGRANDE 39 65 38 70 / 0 30 0 0
MAYHILL 35 56 35 60 / 0 20 0 0
MESCALERO 32 55 33 58 / 0 20 0 0
TIMBERON 27 53 30 58 / 0 20 0 0
WINSTON 26 59 26 60 / 0 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 37 65 35 67 / 0 20 0 0
SPACEPORT 35 68 34 70 / 0 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 31 55 32 60 / 20 30 0 10
HURLEY 32 58 32 63 / 30 30 0 0
CLIFF 29 62 29 67 / 40 40 0 10
MULE CREEK 32 56 33 61 / 50 50 0 10
FAYWOOD 36 58 36 64 / 10 20 0 0
ANIMAS 36 66 36 69 / 50 40 0 0
HACHITA 37 64 35 68 / 30 30 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 65 36 68 / 40 40 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 59 39 61 / 60 50 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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