710
FXUS64 KEPZ 121720
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1120 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2025
- SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- BLOWING DUST/POOR VISIBILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON BOTH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.
- HIGH WIND WATCH WILL GO IN EFFECT ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOR SACRAMENTO, BLACK/GILA, AND FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2025
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING OPEN TROUGH OVER WEST CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS MORNING. SOME CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A
LIGHTNING STRIKES SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX AND SOUTHEAST OF PRESCOTT, ARIZONA. AN ANALYSIS OF EARLY
MORNING CAMS MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OF THE SHOWERS WORKING
INTO HIDALGO, GRANT COUNTIES WITH SCATTERED RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
UNFORTUNATELY, AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING IT
WILL BECOME ISOLATED FROM DEMING EASTWARD. THERE IS NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT ANY FURTHER EAST THAN
DEMING BEFORE DISSIPATING ENTIRELY BY MID MORNING.
MODELS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW THE OPEN WAVE QUICKLY MOVING
OUT OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE OPEN WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING INTO NEW MEXICO
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS MORNING. AS OPEN WAVE MOVES INTO THE
BORDERLAND, WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
HUDSPETH COUNTY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 WITH
GUSTS TO 35 ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNSET. A WIND ADVISORY WILL GO IN THIS MORNING AT 9AM AND
PERSIST UNTIL 6PM FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, A HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGH WILL INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY, WITH DEEPENING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN WITH WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED IN THE LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL GO IN EFFECT ON THURSDAY EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLACK/GILA RANGE AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO, OTERO, AND
FRANKLINS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS
PUSHING 60 TO 70 MPH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
AN INCH AND PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE IN THE GILA REGION ON FRIDAY
MORNING, AND AROUND AN INCH IN THE SACRAMENTOS AS WELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE EARLY FRIDAY, THEN BECOMING ISOLATED AS
IT TROUGH RACES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING EL PASO AND LAS
CRUCES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE WIND DIRECTION AROUND 270 TO
290 DIRECTION. THIS WILL FAVOR LOCALIZED DUST SOURCES NEAR
DEMING AND OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA WITH LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST
FAVORING DEMING TO LAS CRUCES AND AREAS SOUTH OF EL PASO.
A PAIR OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS, THEN ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSH OVER THE BAJA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT BY MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
ASHORE AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE BORDERLAND
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING DUSTS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, THEN AROUND NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREE
BELOW NORMAL BEFORE A STEADY WARMUP WILL START ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2025
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH
SKC-FEW150, BECOMING SCT-BKN060 ACROSS W NM BY 12Z WITH SCATTERED
SHRA. SURFACE WINDS 240-260 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. RA
COVERAGE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AS IT CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 14-16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING, DISSIPATING COMPLETELY
AND CLEARING BY NOON TOMORROW. GUSTY WEST FLOW ALL DAY TOMORROW,
GENERALLY 260-280 AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE LATE MORNING. BLOWING DUST NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR
TOMORROW, BUT PATCHY DUST PLUMES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 4-6
MILES TEMPORALLY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2025
THIS MORNING WE HAVE SOME BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS AND THOSE BREEZY
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BE THE GUSTS DROP OFF
BY EARLY EVENING (IF NOT SOONER). WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUT THE BREEZY
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. FOR
PLANNING PURPOSES, THE BREEZY WINDS LATE THURSDAY MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE
WILL HAVE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FRIDAY MORNING
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. THESE DAMAGING WINDS
COULD IMPACT KELP. FOR CEILINGS, WE WILL HAVE GENERALLY UNLIMITED
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, TO GIVE US HIGH CEILINGS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT OF BKN250.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2025
GUSTY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND MIN RH VALUES IN THE 20S MAINLY EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOWLANDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP RH VALUES IN THE 30S WEST OF
THE DIVIDE AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVER THE AREA. ON THURSDAY,MIN RH
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS FROM DEMING EASTWARD ALONG WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY TO WINDY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S
IN THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR SATURDAY, MIN
RH VALUES IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE 20S WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH
TEENS ELSEWHERE AND RH ABOVE 30 IN THE MOUNTAINS. RH VALUES WILL
DECREASE INTO THE TEENS ON SUNDAY AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
LOWLANDS ON MONDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BOTH DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 44 76 41 / 20 0 0 70
SIERRA BLANCA 63 39 73 37 / 10 0 0 40
LAS CRUCES 65 37 70 34 / 20 0 0 80
ALAMOGORDO 67 38 72 31 / 10 0 0 80
CLOUDCROFT 44 30 48 15 / 10 0 0 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 40 69 36 / 10 0 0 80
SILVER CITY 56 35 61 24 / 50 0 10 100
DEMING 66 35 71 33 / 30 0 0 90
LORDSBURG 63 34 69 29 / 60 0 10 100
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 45 73 42 / 20 0 0 80
DELL CITY 67 36 75 37 / 10 0 0 40
FORT HANCOCK 69 37 80 40 / 10 0 0 50
LOMA LINDA 59 41 67 34 / 20 0 0 70
FABENS 68 40 77 40 / 10 0 0 60
SANTA TERESA 65 40 72 37 / 20 0 0 80
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 45 72 39 / 20 0 0 80
JORNADA RANGE 66 37 70 33 / 10 0 0 90
HATCH 69 36 73 34 / 10 0 0 80
COLUMBUS 67 40 74 37 / 20 0 0 90
OROGRANDE 65 38 70 35 / 20 0 0 80
MAYHILL 57 35 61 23 / 10 0 0 70
MESCALERO 56 33 59 19 / 10 0 0 80
TIMBERON 53 31 58 18 / 10 0 0 70
WINSTON 59 27 61 19 / 20 0 0 80
HILLSBORO 65 36 67 29 / 20 0 0 90
SPACEPORT 68 34 70 30 / 10 0 0 80
LAKE ROBERTS 56 33 60 21 / 50 0 20 100
HURLEY 58 32 64 25 / 40 0 10 100
CLIFF 63 29 67 23 / 60 0 20 100
MULE CREEK 57 34 61 25 / 60 0 30 100
FAYWOOD 59 37 64 28 / 30 0 10 100
ANIMAS 66 36 69 31 / 60 0 10 100
HACHITA 64 35 69 31 / 50 0 0 90
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 37 69 32 / 40 0 0 90
CLOVERDALE 59 39 61 30 / 50 0 0 100
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR OTERO MESA.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-EASTERN
BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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