046
FXUS64 KEPZ 130526
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1126 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1114 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2025
- SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- BLOWING DUST/POOR VISIBILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2025
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST THIS
EVENING AND A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL DASH ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT. THEN ON THURSDAY THE NEXT (STRONGER) UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG
LEE SIDE TROUGH (987MB) WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THESE
TWO WEATHER INGREDIENTS WILL GIVE US A VERY WINDY AND DUSTY DAY ON
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH IS RUNNING A LITTLE SLOW, SO WE MAY HAVE A
SOMEWHAT LATER START TO THE WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THEN THE
SLOW PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP US VERY WINDY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING
WIND EVENT EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WHITE SANDS DOWN INTO EAST EL
PASO. AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MOUNTAIN TOP
LEVEL AND IN THE PAST, THE INVERSION HAS BEEN ABLE TO CREATE SOME
VERY STRONG WINDS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SAN ANDRES, ORGAN AND
FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WIND GUST TO
70 MPH JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT, IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO GIVE
US A GOOD SHOT AT SOME MOUNTAIN SNOWS AND LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DRAGGING COLD AIR ALONG
WITH IT AND THAT WILL LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL WHICH INITIALLY WILL
START OUT AROUND 6,500 FEET THURSDAY EVENING. THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE COULD SEE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A RACE, AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES IN, THE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING OUT. I'M NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS, BUT WE COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN AREA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6,000 FEET. FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WE WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH BREEZY AND
GUSTY WINDS, SO IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY EVENING.
ON SATURDAY WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER, WEAKER, SHORT WAVE TROUGH DASH
ACROSS NEW MEXICO, WHICH WILL KEEP US WINDY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT MOUNTAINS SNOWS AND LIGHT LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS. FOR SUNDAY
WE WILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT
WILL DRY US OUT AND SLOW OUR WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. BUT ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. WE WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY AND NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GUSTY AND DUSTY DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH W WINDS AOB
6KTS. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SW THU AFTERNOON, CONTINUING AN
UPWARD TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS TO AROUND 40KTS
DEVELOP BY 06Z FRIDAY. BLDU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH VIS REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER FORECAST, EXCEPT
FOR KTCS. THERE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE DUST SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE WITH THE MOST
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY FAVORED TO BE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG THE DUST WILL LAST
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP FURTHER UNDERNEATH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT MIXING. FEW- SCT250 ARE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL LOWER TO BKN- OVC100 LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOWERS APPROACH KTCS
AND KDMN FIRST WITH LESS CERTAINTY FOR KLRU AND KELP DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2025
WE WILL HAVE ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING, BUT THE
STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY. MIN RH'S EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT OR BELOW 15%, SO WE WILL SEE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE RIVER IN
THE LOWLANDS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH'S WE WILL BE JUST SHY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE SINGLE DIGIT RH'S IN THE
LOWLANDS AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION NEXT TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 75 41 58 / 0 0 80 10
SIERRA BLANCA 39 73 37 56 / 0 0 40 10
LAS CRUCES 37 71 33 53 / 0 0 80 0
ALAMOGORDO 38 71 31 55 / 0 0 90 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 48 16 32 / 0 0 80 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 39 70 36 56 / 0 0 90 0
SILVER CITY 35 61 24 40 / 0 20 100 10
DEMING 35 72 31 53 / 0 10 90 10
LORDSBURG 34 70 29 49 / 0 20 100 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 74 41 56 / 0 0 80 10
DELL CITY 37 74 37 58 / 0 0 40 10
FORT HANCOCK 39 79 40 62 / 0 0 50 10
LOMA LINDA 42 66 34 50 / 0 0 80 10
FABENS 41 76 40 59 / 0 0 60 0
SANTA TERESA 40 73 36 54 / 0 0 80 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 45 72 39 55 / 0 0 90 0
JORNADA RANGE 37 70 32 54 / 0 0 90 0
HATCH 37 73 34 57 / 0 0 90 0
COLUMBUS 41 74 36 55 / 0 0 90 10
OROGRANDE 39 70 34 54 / 0 0 80 10
MAYHILL 35 61 22 45 / 0 0 70 10
MESCALERO 33 59 19 44 / 0 0 80 10
TIMBERON 31 57 17 41 / 0 0 80 10
WINSTON 27 61 18 45 / 0 0 90 10
HILLSBORO 36 67 28 52 / 0 10 90 10
SPACEPORT 34 69 30 56 / 0 0 90 0
LAKE ROBERTS 32 60 21 41 / 0 30 100 30
HURLEY 32 65 26 45 / 0 10 100 10
CLIFF 29 67 23 48 / 0 30 100 20
MULE CREEK 33 62 24 42 / 0 40 100 20
FAYWOOD 37 65 27 45 / 0 10 100 10
ANIMAS 36 70 31 53 / 0 10 100 10
HACHITA 35 69 30 52 / 0 10 90 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 69 32 54 / 0 0 90 10
CLOVERDALE 39 62 30 48 / 0 10 100 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-SOUTHERN GILA
REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK
RANGE FOOTHILLS-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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