366
FXUS64 KEPZ 131038
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
438 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 310 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
- WE WILL HAVE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, LOW END RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
- WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT MONDAY, BUT THE
WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL
OUR WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES,
WE WILL HAVE BREEZY TO WINDY WINDS. WE SAW A LITTLE BLOWING DUST
YESTERDAY, AND TODAY'S WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER, SO I WENT
AHEAD AND PUT SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE FORECAST. THE
BLOWING DUST SHOULD NOT BE TOO BAD, BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS
SPRING, IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH WINDS TO GET THE DUST MOVING.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE
WILL HAVE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM SUNDAY'S HIGHS, BUT
STILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT, AT
THE SURFACE, AN EAST PUSH WILL TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE EAST PUSH WILL STRUGGLE MIGHTILY TO
PUSH TOO FAR WEST. THIS EAST PUSH WON'T HAVE TOO MUCH EFFECT ON
OUR WEATHER, IT MAY DROP HIGHS ON TUESDAY A DEGREE OR TWO AND
SWING OUR SURFACE WINDS BRIEFLY AROUND TO THE EAST, BUT BY
WEDNESDAY, THE WESTERLY WINDS RETURN AND OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LOWLANDS JUMP BACK CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES. WE WILL ALSO SEE
BREEZY WINDS RETURN TO OUR FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN LINGERING ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WILL HEAD IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THE SAME
TIME A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. THESE TWO WEATHER FACTORS WILL WORK TOGETHER TO GIVE US
A WINDY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE TO THE
EAST, SO WE MAY SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
EACH AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT I WON'T HOLD MY
BREATH TOO LONG TO SEE IF THAT WILL HAPPEN. EVEN IF WE DO GET
SOME RAIN, IT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF THINGS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA, SO THAT BY
NEXT SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2025
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS EXPECTED, BUT WILL RETURN
ON SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER GUSTS AT THE SURFACE, WITH PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS WELL.
ELP WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO AWW CRITERIA (20 KNOTS SUSTAINED
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS) FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON,
MOST LIKELY 21 OR 22Z THROUGH 00 TO 01Z. SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST
WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS THE WIND VECTOR WILL BE BACKED BY ABOUT 10-20
DEGREES VERSUS THIS PAST AFTERNOON, BUT VIS WILL LIKELY STAY 3SM
OR HIGHER. STRONGER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN SW NEW MEXICO, WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE, AND MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
DMN, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE AT LRU.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
WE WILL SEE MORE ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER STARTING TODAY. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE OUR VERY, VERY LOW MIN RH'S AND WE WILL
HAVE WINDY CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ON MONDAY, WE WILL STILL BE DRY, BUT WE
WILL SEE MUCH LESS WIND. BUT THE WINDS START TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEN ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND THAT WILL GIVE US STRONG
AFTERNOON WINDS ALONG WITH MIN RH'S IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
LOWLANDS AND 10 TO 15% IN AREA MOUNTAINS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 92 62 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 86 57 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 88 55 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 89 55 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 65 43 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 87 58 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 79 53 77 51 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 90 54 86 52 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 87 54 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 90 63 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 90 53 86 51 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 93 58 91 56 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 83 59 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 92 59 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 89 56 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 89 64 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 88 56 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 90 57 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 92 61 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 87 56 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 77 47 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 76 47 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 74 46 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 78 46 75 43 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 85 55 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 87 54 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 79 49 77 46 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 83 51 80 48 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 87 49 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 81 51 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 82 55 80 51 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 89 55 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 88 56 85 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 88 56 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 82 56 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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