876
FXUS64 KEPZ 132328
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
528 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 419 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, LOW END RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
- WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT MONDAY, BUT THE
WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING DUST ACTIVELY OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BEFORE SIMMERING DOWN AFTER
SUNSET. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
EVEN LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE QUIETEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS 5-10 MPH, DRY CONDITIONS, AND PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIP HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM TODAY. THERE IS INCREASING SW FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOCAL AND BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL STAY DRY. CAMS ARE SUGGESTING LIGHT
SHOWERY ACTIVITY OVER AZ AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA, BUT DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 40F WHICH WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND, PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES OUT OF THIS ENERGY. MEANWHILE, A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
COULD HAVE SOME TROUBLE PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS DUE TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION, BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS OF 15-25MPH ON WEST
FACING SLOPES LIKE THE FRANKLINS AND HUECOS. TRANSITIONING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20MPH
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN STORE WEDNESDAY WITH
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE THAT AFTERNOON.
BY THURSDAY, A LARGE UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PACNW. THE
STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE MODEST LEE
TROUGHING THAT AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA MOUNTAINS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE. BLOWING DUST IS CERTAIN TO CAUSE ISSUES EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AFTER SUNSET. THE WIND DOESN'T STOP THERE,
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST FRIDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE
WEAKENED WITH DUST ISSUES EACH DAY. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO
WITH THIS LARGE SYSTEM, THEY LOOK WORSE THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGESTED
YESTERDAY.. PROBABLY WON'T SEE A LOT OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION,
JUST A LOT OF WIND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCT180 BKN-OVC250. SURFACE
WINDS WEST 15-20G30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 03Z, THEN WEST/NORTHWEST
AOB 8 KNOTS AFTER. BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS AROUND 010-020 AGL,WEST
25-30 KNOTS BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z-09Z MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
SOMEWHAT LOW FIRE DANGER TOMORROW DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT WINDS (20
FT WINDS OF 5-10MPH) BUT ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE CRITICAL MIN RHS. LOWLAND AREAS WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
THE MOUNTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 15-20% IN THE SACS. A COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING
SHIFTING WINDS EASTERLY, BECOMING SOMEWHAT BREEZY AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL SEEP IN A BIT BETTER MOISTURE, ALLOWING
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTY TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL MIN RHS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BECOMING BREEZY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY WITH
CRITICAL MIN RHS ACROSS THE BOARD, 4-6% EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO CRITICALLY DRY RHS
(SINGLE DIGITS IN THE LOWLANDS, 10-17% IN THE SACS), AND VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH LOOKS VERY PROBABLE IN THE
COMING DAYS. CAN EXPECT EXTREME CONDITIONS IN THE NM ZONES, FAR
WEST TX IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL. CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WHERE EACH AFTERNOON WILL SEE THESE BREEZY
WINDS. MIN RHS LARGELY STAY 10-15% ALL THREE DAYS WITH THE AREA
MOUNTAINS STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL RH THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 89 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 83 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 55 85 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 55 85 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 62 37 60 / 0 0 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 84 53 82 / 0 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 53 77 50 79 / 0 10 10 0
DEMING 54 87 52 87 / 0 0 10 0
LORDSBURG 55 84 53 87 / 0 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 87 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 54 86 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 58 90 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 80 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 58 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 57 85 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 86 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 55 85 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 57 87 52 87 / 0 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 60 87 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 56 84 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 73 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 47 73 41 72 / 0 0 10 10
TIMBERON 46 72 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 47 75 43 76 / 0 10 10 0
HILLSBORO 55 82 50 82 / 0 10 10 0
SPACEPORT 55 83 50 83 / 0 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 77 45 78 / 0 10 10 10
HURLEY 50 81 47 80 / 0 10 10 0
CLIFF 49 84 47 87 / 0 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 51 79 49 82 / 0 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 55 79 50 81 / 0 10 10 0
ANIMAS 57 86 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 57 85 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 85 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 79 53 82 / 0 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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