418
FXUS64 KEPZ 141032
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
432 AM MDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 318 AM MDT MON APR 14 2025
- A LITTLE COOLER TODAY, BUT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, LOW END RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
- WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT MONDAY, BUT THE
WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT MON APR 14 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US RECORD SETTING HEAT OVER THE
WEEKEND HAS PUSHED OFF TO OUR EAST. IN ITS WAKE, WE WILL HAVE A
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL HELP KEEP OUR
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES GOING, BUT WE WILL COME DOWN A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE RECORD LEVELS WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND. ON TUESDAY
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE, BUT AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. IF YOU ARE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, YOU WILL HAVE
BREEZY EAST WINDS AND A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FOR A HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF YOU ARE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE THE WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WE WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS WE SAW ON MONDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY THE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SCOUR OUT THE EAST PUSH
AND OUR WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO THE WEST FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP HIGHER, SO THAT HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THURSDAY WILL BE OUR BIG WEATHER DAY, AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE LEE
SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO GIVE US A VERY
WINDY AND DUSTY DAY. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE BIG CONCERN FOR THE
DAY ON THURSDAY, BUT WE COULD ALSO SEE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST, SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG WINDS (BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG WINDS AS
THURSDAY) ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. THE TROUGH WILL HAVE
A LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT ANY RAIN THAT DOES
FALL WILL BE LIGHT. WE WILL ALSO SEE COOLER AIR FILTER IN WITH THE
TROUGH SO THAT SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE, AND
SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LESS WINDS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
WE WILL SEE LESS WINDS ON MONDAY, BUT THE HIGH CEILINGS OF BKN250
WILL LINGER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY ON MONDAY. WE WILL HAVE HIGH CEILINGS OF BKN250 TONIGHT
AND THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT MON APR 14 2025
WE WILL SEE QUIET FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LESS WINDS,
BUT MIN RH'S WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12% IN THE LOWLANDS AND FROM 15
TO 20% IN AREA MOUNTAINS. ON TUESDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE, BUT BY WEDNESDAY, THE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL SWING
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE VERY LOW MIN
RH'S ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, WE WILL SEE AT
LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL GIVE US A VERY WINDY DAY. WE WILL
STILL BE VERY DRY, SO WE WILL SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE LESS WINDS AND A LITTLE HIGHER MIN RH'S, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 88 60 84 60 / 0 10 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 84 52 77 55 / 0 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 84 52 81 51 / 0 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 84 52 82 54 / 10 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 62 38 60 41 / 10 10 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 82 54 82 53 / 10 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 76 51 78 48 / 10 10 0 0
DEMING 86 52 87 50 / 10 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 84 51 87 47 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 86 61 82 61 / 0 10 0 10
DELL CITY 86 51 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 91 56 87 57 / 0 10 0 10
LOMA LINDA 80 53 74 56 / 0 10 0 10
FABENS 89 58 84 57 / 0 10 0 10
SANTA TERESA 85 56 83 55 / 0 10 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 86 59 81 59 / 0 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 84 53 81 51 / 10 10 10 0
HATCH 86 52 85 51 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 86 56 88 54 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 84 56 78 55 / 0 10 10 0
MAYHILL 72 40 66 44 / 10 10 10 0
MESCALERO 73 42 72 45 / 10 10 10 0
TIMBERON 71 40 66 42 / 10 10 10 0
WINSTON 75 43 76 39 / 10 10 10 0
HILLSBORO 82 51 82 48 / 10 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 83 51 82 49 / 10 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 76 47 78 43 / 10 10 10 0
HURLEY 79 47 81 46 / 10 10 0 0
CLIFF 83 47 86 43 / 10 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 79 49 81 45 / 10 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 79 51 80 49 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 85 52 89 48 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 84 52 88 49 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 84 51 88 50 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 79 53 82 51 / 10 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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