171
FXUS64 KEPZ 142049
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 PM MDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 14 2025
- A LITTLE COOLER TODAY, BUT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, LOW END RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
- WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT MONDAY, BUT THE
WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 14 2025
A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN CAN BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON COURTESY OF A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. THE UL
LOW OFF THE CA COAST HAS STEERED THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVERHEAD NM
AND FAR WEST TEXAS WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS. A S/W RIDGE IS
ALIGNED SE TO NW FROM MEXICO TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS, AND IT WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW. THIS WILL LIMIT WINDS FOR TODAY,
BUT ALSO ALLOW A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WASHING OUT TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THIS WILL ALSO WINDS TO SWING TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST WHILE
TRIMMING BACK HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN MAKING A SLOW
EASTWARD PUSH, ARRIVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
INCREASE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINING OVERHEAD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FOR WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL
PUSH TUESDAY'S AIR MASS BACK EAST WHILE FOSTERING BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THE MAIN CONCERN. BY
THURSDAY, THE JET WILL EXTEND ACROSS NM WITH A DEEPENING ~989 MB LEE
CYCLONE OVER EASTERN CO ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BRING
A CLASSIC WIND SET-UP WITH HIGH WIND WATCHES ALREADY IN PLACE FOR
OUR WINDIER ZONES PLUS SIERRA COUNTY WHERE THE HEART OF THE JET
LOOKS TO ALIGN. WIND ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR THE
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL TRANSPORT BLOWING DUST OUT OF MEXICO, WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH MORE LOCALIZED ZONES. AREAS OF VISIBILITY BELOW 0.25
MILES ARE VERY LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF VISIBILITY BELOW 1
MILE. CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
ALSO BE AN IMPACT.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WHILE
THURSDAY'S SYSTEM GETS SHEARED APART AND ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER UL
LOW THAT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FRIDAY
WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY THOUGH COOLER WEATHER AND A WEAKER LEE
CYCLONE WILL MEAN LIGHTER WINDS THAT THURSDAY. THE SECOND UL LOW'S
JET WILL BE ALIGNED OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY SO THAT MEANS MORE WIND.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL INHIBIT LEE CYCLOGENESIS
WITH THE LEE CYCLONE LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS. NEVERTHELESS MIXING
AND A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS THOUGH LESS THAN THURSDAY. EARLIER RUNS OF THE EURO
BROUGHT PRECIP BEFORE THE DRY SLOT MOVED IN, BUT THAT IS ABSENT IN
THE LATEST RUN AND ALSO IN THE GFS. THE EARLIER RUNS ARE STILL
REPRESENTED IN THE NBM SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR MAINLY SATURDAY. I SUSPECT POPS WILL DECREASE ON LATER
UPDATES, AND ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING WITH WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN ON THE DECREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESSER WINDS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. EASTER SUNDAY IS LOOKING NICE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SCT-
OVC200-250. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
DIRECTION WILL FAVOR THE S TO SW (180-210 BECOMING 230-260). LATE
IN THE PERIOD, AFTER 6Z, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SE OR E.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 14 2025
...CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL ON WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING MINOR IMPROVEMENTS TO FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY VIA SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED DEW POINTS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS, IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY
WARM AND DRY DAY. WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL TOP OUT 15
TO 20 MPH WITH LOCALIZED AREAS JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD. A LOW-
END RED FLAG MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE GILA (NM110) AND
THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS (NM111) WITH THE LREF SHOWING ABOUT 40%
CHANCE OF CRITICAL WEATHER EXCEEDANCE FOR THESE AREAS.
MAIN STORM SYSTEM SWINGS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY BRINGING NEARLY ALL
LOCATIONS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR WINDS. ONLY PORTIONS OF
HUDSPETH COUNTY MAY SEE WINDS BELOW THE 20 MPH THRESHOLD. GIVEN
THE HIGH CONFIDENCE (80 TO NEAR 100%) FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN HUDSPETH CO, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT.
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT
WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF AN UL TROUGH, SATURDAY MAY FEATURE MORE CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS, BUT LATEST WINDS COME IN BELOW THAT THRESHOLD.
MOUNTAIN RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE HIGHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 83 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 77 54 87 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 53 80 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 82 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 60 42 64 / 10 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 82 53 87 / 10 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 78 48 79 / 10 10 0 0
DEMING 51 86 51 90 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 86 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 82 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 77 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 85 57 94 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 53 73 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 58 84 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 56 81 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 60 81 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 81 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 52 84 51 90 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 56 87 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 77 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 40 66 44 77 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 71 46 76 / 10 10 0 0
TIMBERON 40 65 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 42 76 39 80 / 10 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 50 81 48 85 / 10 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 81 49 88 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 47 78 43 80 / 10 10 0 0
HURLEY 47 80 46 83 / 10 10 0 0
CLIFF 47 86 45 86 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 81 46 81 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 79 49 82 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 51 89 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 52 86 49 88 / 0 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 87 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 81 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7500 FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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