391
FXUS64 KEPZ 151758
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1158 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 204 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. AT OR NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, LOW END RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
- WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON, BUT THE WINDIEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF EL PASO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
WEST THROUGH TODAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS AND WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW END BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
TONGUE OF DRIER AIR OVER THE BAJA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA.
THE DRIER AIR SEEN ON WATER VAPOR WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST
INTO THE BORDERLAND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE FORECAST
TODAY. THE REX BLOCK ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATER TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
TROUGH MOVES TO JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AROUND SOMETIME THIS
EVENING. BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS MORNING BRING THE TROUGH
AND LOW ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING BY THURSDAY
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AS
THE TROUGH PUSHES ASHORE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, THE FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE AIRMASS FROM TODAY WILL BE PUSHED BACK
EAST BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH, WHILE BRINGING LOW END BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
BORDERLAND ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE DOES POINT TO A VERY
BRIEF WINDOW OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEW
MEXICO BOOTHEEL AROUND THE 21Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. IF MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WINDS FOR A LONGER DURATION, THEN A
RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A LOOK AT H850 TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOW TEMPERATURES OF 29C
WHICH LIKELY WOULD AT LEAST TIE IF NOT BREAK THE RECORD OF 93
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1962. THE CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURE FOR EL
PASO FOR WEDNESDAY WILL TIE THE RECORD, BUT NBM 75TH SHOWING 96
DEGREES. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO THAT
HIGH BUT THAT WOULD BREAK THE RECORD BY A FEW DEGREES.
BY THURSDAY, MODELS SHOWING THE JET ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH THE
00Z GFS SHOWING A DEEPENING 989MB, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS
A 992MB LEE SIDE LOW AND FRONTOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS CONDUCIVE FOR HIGH WINDS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ALIGNS WITH WHERE THE JET MAX WILL PASS,
PARTICULARLY OVER SIERRA AND GRANT COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS
NEEDED IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSPORT DUST
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO, WHICH COMBINED WITH LOCAL DUST SOURCES WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS WITH
AREAS A QUARTER MILE OR LESS LIKELY LEADING TO DUST STORM
ADVISORIES AND DUST STORM WARNINGS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND DUST, CRITICAL TO EXTREME
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN THE CARDS WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES AND STRONG WINDS LEADING TO HISTORIC RFTI VALUES WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING LIKELY NEEDED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
FOR FRIDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH WINDY CONDITION IN HIGHER TERRAIN CONTINUING OVER
THE BORDERLAND. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FROM THURSDAY WILL BE
SHEARED APART AND ABSORBED AS A TROUGH WITH A LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN DROPS SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
SOUTHEAST BRING SOME MOISTURE BRING CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS. THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE REST OF EASTER REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN A
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY 120-160 AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS S NM
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY
140-180 AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS. SKIES SKC-FEW130. BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
...CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL ON WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS TODAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
DRY WEATHER AND LOW END BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE BORDERLAND. MIN RH VALUES
FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SACRAMENTOS. MODELS HINT AT A SMALL WINDOW IN
THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE MET FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IF FUTURE MODEL TRENDS
SHOW MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO OF CONDITIONS, A LOW END RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NEW MEXICO
BOOTHEEL. BY THURSDAY,THE TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BRINGING STRONG
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES LEADING TO CRITICAL TO EXTREME
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY WITH A HIGH
POSSIBILITY IT WILL BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY AS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AND LOW RH VALUES. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LOW END BREEZY WITH A
MODEST REBOUND IN RH VALUES WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 84 60 93 65 / 0 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 76 54 87 57 / 0 10 0 10
LAS CRUCES 81 51 88 54 / 0 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 81 54 88 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 60 43 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 82 53 88 54 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 78 49 79 49 / 10 10 0 0
DEMING 86 51 90 54 / 0 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 86 49 88 50 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 82 61 91 64 / 0 10 0 0
DELL CITY 76 51 91 56 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 85 57 94 59 / 0 10 0 10
LOMA LINDA 72 55 83 58 / 0 10 0 0
FABENS 84 58 93 60 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 81 55 90 59 / 0 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 59 87 63 / 0 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 80 53 88 54 / 0 10 0 0
HATCH 84 52 90 57 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 86 55 92 58 / 0 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 77 55 87 56 / 0 10 0 0
MAYHILL 66 45 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 71 46 74 49 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 66 42 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 76 40 79 44 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 81 48 85 54 / 10 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 81 50 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 78 44 79 46 / 10 10 0 0
HURLEY 81 46 83 46 / 10 10 0 0
CLIFF 85 45 86 44 / 10 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 81 46 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 79 50 82 51 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 89 50 88 54 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 86 50 88 54 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 87 51 87 54 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 81 52 81 53 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7500 FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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