822
FXUS64 KEPZ 152355
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
555 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. AT OR NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, LOW END RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY EACH AFTERNOON, WITH VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AND BLOWING DUST CONCERNS ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE SINCE THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE ISSUANCE. ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH, DRY CONDITIONS, BLOWING
DUST CONCERNS, AND WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM COMES INTO PLAY OFF THE
COAST OF SOCAL. THIS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (24-36 HOURS), IN RESPONSE
DEEP AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERLAY THE REGION WITH
A 50-60 KNOTS 500MB JET NOSING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS SWERN NM.
THIS COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NM AND VERY
DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NM. THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR OF WINDS WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS SWERN NM ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH ANTECEDENT DROUGHT
STATUS ACROSS THE REGION, PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE A CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 94 DEGREES FOR EL PASO, THIS WOULD
BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 93 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1962.
ON THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL COME
ONSHORE AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. A STRONG
500MB JET WITH WINDS OF 60-80 KNOTS WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER
SWERN AND CENTRAL NM. DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING AND STRONG ~990MB
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SE CO WILL PROMOTE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NM. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE HIGH WIND
WATCH AREA COULD APPROACH 65 MPH. AGAIN, LIKE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED, BLOWING DUST WILL BE A BIG CONCERN ON THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY, YOU GUESSED IT, ANOTHER BOUT OF WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. SWERLY TRAJECTORIES WILL INDUCE BLOWING
DUST ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS ONCE AGAIN.
FOR EASTER WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD. AS IT DOES SO, MOISTURE SECLUDED TO THE CORE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH UPPER LOW DYNAMICS WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE
GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. AS FOR EASTER SUNDAY, EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT BREEZES, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS CALMING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS FOR ALL SITES. EXPECT SKC ACROSS TERMINALS TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW. A BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 15-25KT
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. HOWEVER, A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR NMZ110 AND NMZ111, IN EFFECT ON
WEDNESDAY. ALSO, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT HAS BEEN IN EFFECT ON
THURSDAY, WILL BE UPGRADED AS WELL DURING THIS AFTERNOON'S
FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM COMES INTO PLAY OFF THE
COAST OF SOCAL. THIS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (24-36 HOURS), IN RESPONSE
DEEP AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERLAY THE REGION WITH
A 50-60 KNOTS 500MB JET NOSING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS SWERN NM.
THIS COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NM AND VERY
DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NM. AGAIN, A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX RH VALUES DROPPING TO 3-6 PERCENT.
THAT BEING SAID, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL IN EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR NMZ110 AND NMZ111.
ON THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL COME
ONSHORE AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. THURSDAY
WILL BE A HIGHER-END RED FLAG WARNING TYPE OF DAY WITH CRITICAL TO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED, AREAWIDE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 55 TO 65 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AT OR BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
ON FRIDAY, THE SAME STORM SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS VICINITY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEED AT A FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 94 64 90 / 10 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 55 88 56 86 / 10 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 52 89 54 85 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 52 88 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 65 45 62 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 88 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 80 49 75 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 51 91 54 87 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 88 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 91 64 88 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY 51 91 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 58 95 59 93 / 10 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 56 84 58 82 / 10 0 0 10
FABENS 58 93 60 92 / 10 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 55 90 59 86 / 10 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 90 63 87 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 52 88 55 85 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 52 91 56 87 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 55 92 58 87 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 45 78 53 75 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 45 75 49 73 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 42 74 46 72 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 40 79 44 74 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 48 86 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 87 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 79 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 46 83 46 79 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 45 86 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 47 81 47 75 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 83 50 79 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 50 88 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 50 88 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 87 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 81 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7500 FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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