868
FXUS64 KEPZ 161120
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
520 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 433 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. RECORD TEMPERATURE
TODAY LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, LOW END
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES WEST OF THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY.
- WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY EACH AFTERNOON, WITH VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AND BLOWING DUST CONCERNS ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE THIS MORNING. AN ACTIVE COUPLE OF DAYS ARE IN THE
FORECAST WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BLOWING DUST, AND WINDY TO
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AS THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND TROUGH PUSH ASHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THE
ADVANCING TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW, FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL
INCREASE THROUGH DAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO EL PASO COUNTY. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE LOCALIZED DUST SOURCES BRINGING
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LOWLANDS FROM EL PASO WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS H850 TEMPERATURES OVER THE EL PASO METRO AREA AT 28C, WHICH
IS A DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD
FALLING.TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
THE CURRENT HIGH FOR TODAY AT 95 DEGREES AT EL PASO, WHICH WOULD
BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 93 SET BACK IN 1962.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THURSDAY AS MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS WILL IMPACT
THE BORDERLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY AND DEEP
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERLAYING MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A 50 TO
60 KNOT 500MB JET NOSING IN FROM THE WEST OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO AS FAR EAST AS EL PASO COUNTY. THE
COMBINATION OF DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING AND STRONG ~991MB AS NOTED BY
THE ECMWF, WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN EVEN STRONG LOW AT ~988MB
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. A HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE BLACK/GILA RANGE, EASTERN SACRAMENTO & SAN ANDRES
MOUNTAINS, AND ORGAN MOUNTAINS FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUE FOR THE
REMAINING LOWLAND AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HUDSPETH COUNTY FOR
THE SAME TIME FRAME AS THE HIGH WIND WARNING ON THURSDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. IN ADDITION TO
THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR WIND, A DUST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE LOWLANDS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS AS VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS
FROM BLOWING DUST. THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A FEW DUST STORM
WARNINGS BEING ISSUED FOR VISIBILITIES OF QUARTER MILE OR LESS
FROM DUST SOURCES FROM NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA STATE AND LOCALIZED DUST
SOURCES OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
FOR FRIDAY, ANOTHER BOUT OF BLOWING DUST APPEARS LIKELY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THAT WILL BE THE RESPONSIBLE PARTY FOR THE
HAZARDS ON FRIDAY WILL MERGE WITH A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW THAT
DIVES SOUTH OUT OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND SHEAR OUT AND MERGES BOTH TROUGHS TOGETHER AS IT
DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WINDS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 30
MPH HOUR WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH ADDITIONAL WIND AND
BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
FOR EASTER WEEKEND, THE PARENT TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND DEEPER MOISTURE PASSING
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME MODEST MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL AID TO
PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED LOWLAND SHOWERS. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL EXIT
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY WITH AN
ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM PUSHES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER THE
BORDERLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD TROUGH WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR AND IVR DUE TO DUST AT TAF SITES NEAR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SKIES WILL BE SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MID
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST AT LEAST 03Z. ALL TAF SITES
SHOULD SEE A PEAK IN GUST AROUND 21-23Z TIME FRAME WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. PATCHY BLOWING DUSTS WILL
BE AN ISSUE FROM SOURCES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS AT KDMN, KELP, &
KLRU SEEING VISIBILITIES 3SM OR LESS FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
LOW MIN RH VALUES AND WINDY CONDITION TODAY WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE, WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A RED FLAG WARNING
WILL GO IN EFFECT AT NOON TO 8 PM FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO. FOR THURSDAY, THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL BRING CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS AND
MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS. THE COMBINATION OF MIN RH VALUES AT OR
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS, AND
VERY DRY FUELS WILL BRING HIGH END RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS TO
THE BORDERLAND.
FOR FRIDAY, A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MERGE WITH THE
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY ALLOW FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH LEADING TO CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND LIKELY REQUIRING ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 95 64 90 62 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 87 56 86 60 / 0 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 89 52 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 88 56 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 64 45 62 38 / 0 0 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 88 53 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 79 47 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 90 52 86 48 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 88 49 82 43 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 89 63 88 60 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 90 55 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 95 59 94 62 / 0 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 83 58 82 56 / 0 0 10 0
FABENS 93 59 91 60 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 90 58 86 55 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 87 63 87 59 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 88 54 85 51 / 0 0 10 0
HATCH 90 56 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 92 57 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 87 56 85 54 / 0 0 10 0
MAYHILL 77 52 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 73 49 73 42 / 0 0 10 0
TIMBERON 72 45 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 78 42 73 36 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 85 51 81 46 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 87 51 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 79 45 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 83 45 79 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 85 43 81 39 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 80 46 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 83 49 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 88 53 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 88 53 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 87 54 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 81 51 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK
RANGE FOOTHILLS-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SIERRA
COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA
RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...41-KELLY
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