909
FXUS64 KEPZ 171127
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
527 AM MDT THU APR 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY. TEMPERATURES JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, LOW END
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES WEST OF THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY.
- WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY EACH AFTERNOON, WITH VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AND BLOWING DUST CONCERNS ON TODAY. WINDY ON FRIDAY
WITH MORE BLOWING DUST AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR EASTER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT THU APR 17 2025
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN
OVER THE LOWLANDS LATER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT IS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING AS THE
SUBTROPICAL JET LIFT NORTH AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. THE QUICK
MOVING UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND FAST MOVING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MERGE BY TONIGHT. THE MERGED TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH NEW MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW, STRONG LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER
EASTERN COLORADO LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THIS SOLUTION WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE
SURFACE LOW AT ~989MB, WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW AT ~991MB BY
OOZ FRIDAY.
THE INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN OF SOUTHWESTERN WINDS
AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE
LOWLANDS, AND 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 65MPH THIS AFTERNOON.AA HIGH WIND WARNING
WILL GO IN EFFECT AT 10 AM THROUGH 8 PM FOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BLACK/GILA RANGE AND THE SAN ANDRES/SACRAMENTO RANGES AS WELL AS
SIERRA COUNTY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL GO FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM FOR
THE LOWLAND AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE WIND ORIENTATION OF
250 TO 270 DEGREES WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF WIDESPREAD DUST OVER THE
LOWLANDS UP TO WHITE SANDS MISSILE RANGE WITH AT LEAST A FEW DUST
STORM WARNINGS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE
MILE DOWN TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS FROM DUST SOURCES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA STATE IN MEXICO. A
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WILL GO IN EFFECT AT 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM FOR
THE LOWLANDS OF NEW MEXICO UP TO THE TULAROSA BASIN AND WHITE
SANDS MISSILE RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND DUST HAZARDS
TODAY, EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST
TODAY WITH A HIGHER END RED FLAG WARNING GOING IN EFFECT FROM 10
AM THROUGH 9 PM FOR STRONG WINDS, VERY LOW HUMIDITY, AND
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AREAWIDE.
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON FRIDAY
WILL NOT BE NEAR AS STRONG AS IT WILL BE TODAY,NONETHELESS, AMPLE
DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS, BLOWING DUST,
AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL GO IN
EFFECT 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL GO IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THOUGH 8 PM THAT WILL
MIRROR THE WIND ADVISORY WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A DUST STORM
WARNING OR TWO ENTIRELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND WILL
GO IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THROUGH 9 PM DUE TO STRONG WINDS, VERY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES, AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO WITH THE DEEPER CORE OF MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE LOW. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH AMPLE DYNAMICS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WINDS WILL BE NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY AND FRIDAY BUT LIKELY WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE BORDERLAND. BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOW ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING THAT WILL
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A 4 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE A WARMING TO 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE BORDERLAND. HOWEVER, SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BLOWING
DUST NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AT THIS TIME, CARRYING
VISIBILITIES AT 2SM AT KELP, KLRU, AND KDMN AFTER THE 20Z TIME
FRAME, AND WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO
AMEND AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES AS NEEDED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUST TO 30 KTS
AFTER 15Z. PEAK WINDS AT KLRU AND KDMN OF 30 TO 35 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KTS IN THE 20Z-23Z TIMEFRAME. FOR KTCS, WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 KTS AROUND 15Z AND
STEADILY INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS BY 20Z WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS WITH
PEAK WINDS AROUND 20-23Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE
TOWARD SUNSET AT OR AROUND 03Z 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS,
THEN 15 TO 25 KTS AROUND 06Z. SKIES FEW-SCT250 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT THU APR 17 2025
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE
LOWLANDS AND UP TO 65 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. THE COMBINATIONS
OF VERY LOW RH VALUES, WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS, AND
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL GO IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING AT 10 AM UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS
LISTED ABOVE. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL REACH THE GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUST TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES AND VERY
DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS AS THE PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE AND RAIN/SNOW CHANCES TO THE
AREA MAINLY ON SATURDAY BRING A MODEST REBOUND IN MIN RH VALUES TO
THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, MIN RH VALUES WILL
RETURN TO SINGLE DIGIT VALUES BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR CRITICAL CATEGORY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 90 59 80 53 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 86 58 78 46 / 10 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 85 46 75 43 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 86 51 75 44 / 10 0 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 63 37 52 30 / 10 0 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 83 47 72 43 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 74 40 64 37 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 86 46 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 82 44 72 40 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 88 58 78 52 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 89 57 81 46 / 0 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 94 60 85 48 / 10 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 82 54 73 46 / 10 0 10 0
FABENS 91 57 82 49 / 10 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 86 53 77 46 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 87 57 77 51 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 85 49 75 43 / 0 0 10 0
HATCH 86 50 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 87 52 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 85 52 75 46 / 10 0 10 0
MAYHILL 75 45 64 37 / 10 0 10 0
MESCALERO 73 41 62 34 / 10 0 10 0
TIMBERON 72 39 62 32 / 10 0 10 0
WINSTON 73 35 62 30 / 0 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 81 44 69 40 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 83 45 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 73 35 63 33 / 0 0 10 20
HURLEY 78 39 67 35 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 79 37 70 35 / 0 0 10 20
MULE CREEK 73 36 64 36 / 0 0 10 30
FAYWOOD 78 43 67 39 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 83 47 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 83 48 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 82 49 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 76 46 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO
COUNTY.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-
SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-LOWLANDS
OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA
BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES
BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...41-KELLY
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