502
FXUS64 KEPZ 172000
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT THU APR 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY. TEMPERATURES JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, LOW END
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES WEST OF THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY.
- WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY EACH AFTERNOON, WITH VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AND BLOWING DUST CONCERNS ON TODAY. WINDY ON FRIDAY
WITH MORE BLOWING DUST AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR EASTER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU APR 17 2025
AN UL TROUGH COVERS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A
PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS, ONE OFF THE CA-BAJA COAST AND THE OTHER OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS PATTERN HAS DIRECTED A JET STREAK OVERHEAD
AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY'S WIND AND DUST. CURRENT PRODUCTS
LOOK GOOD BUT AM MONITORING HUDSPETH COUNTY FOR A POSSIBLE
EXTENSION OF THE DUST ADVISORY. A 1:30 PM REPORT FROM DEMING
SUGGEST AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED, SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT. DUST STORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED
AS NEEDED AS WELL. IMPACTS FROM DUST AND A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM, WITH A PACIFIC FRONT TO AID IN
THE SETTLING OF WINDS AND DUST.
WE WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY THOUGH TO A LESSER
DEGREE THAN TODAY AS THE TWO UL LOWS MERGE WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS, KEEPING THE MAIN JET OVERHEAD. THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS NOT
QUITE AS STRONG AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT MIXING AS
COMPARED TODAY, BUT WIDESPREAD GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH STILL LOOK TO
BE A GOOD BET. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER DAY OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH A RED FLAG WARNING AND DUST
ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT AS WELL.
THANKS TO ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW, THIS
SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND FOR SATURDAY. AS THE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
LOW, IT WILL SHIFT IT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COLD POOL DYNAMICS WILL
BRING LOW TO MODERATE (20-40 PERCENT) CHANCES OF PRECIP TO MUCH
OF THE CWA VIA ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE GILA AND LOWLANDS WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIMIT LEE
TROUGHING, AND A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONE WILL FORM OVER WEST TEXAS.
THE JET ALOFT WILL ALSO BE WEAKER THAN SEEN TODAY OR TOMORROW.
THUS, IT WILL BE BREEZY ON SATURDAY BUT NO WIND OR FIRE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL FOR SATURDAY.
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH BROAD
RIDGING EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME MODEST
AFTERNOON BREEZES AND NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU APR 17 2025
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPACTS
FROM BLDU; THUS, CATEGORY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND IFR, PERHAPS EVEN
LIFR, ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
TOPPING OUT 25 TO 35 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS,
EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED 50 KNOTS AT TCS WITH A DIRECTION FROM
220-250. THESE SPEEDS WILL BRING BLDU. THE DEGREE OF VIS REDUCTION
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, SO EXPECT AMENDMENTS. VIS AT OR BELOW 0.25
MILE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU APR 17 2025
..CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MODEST IMPROVEMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES TONIGHT, BUT MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
AND LOWER TEENS WILL OCCUR AGAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS DRY
AIR WILL COMBINE WITH 20-FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH TO CREATE
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE GILA ON FRIDAY WHERE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER WHILE MIN RH VALUES FINISH IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20
PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. LOWLAND RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT WHILE MOUNTAINS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH,
SO NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. DRY AIR RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 81 53 73 / 0 10 0 20
SIERRA BLANCA 59 78 47 73 / 0 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 48 75 42 66 / 0 0 0 20
ALAMOGORDO 52 75 44 67 / 0 0 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 37 52 31 46 / 0 0 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 73 43 64 / 0 0 0 30
SILVER CITY 40 64 37 55 / 0 0 10 40
DEMING 46 75 42 67 / 0 0 0 30
LORDSBURG 43 72 40 63 / 0 0 10 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 78 52 69 / 0 10 0 20
DELL CITY 58 81 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 61 86 49 79 / 0 10 0 10
LOMA LINDA 54 73 47 64 / 0 10 0 10
FABENS 58 83 49 74 / 0 10 0 10
SANTA TERESA 53 77 47 67 / 0 10 0 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 77 51 68 / 0 0 0 30
JORNADA RANGE 50 74 43 66 / 0 0 0 30
HATCH 51 75 45 67 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBUS 53 78 47 68 / 0 0 0 20
OROGRANDE 53 75 45 67 / 0 0 0 20
MAYHILL 45 65 37 59 / 0 0 0 30
MESCALERO 42 62 34 56 / 0 0 0 40
TIMBERON 39 62 32 55 / 0 0 0 20
WINSTON 35 62 29 54 / 0 0 10 40
HILLSBORO 45 70 39 61 / 0 0 0 30
SPACEPORT 46 72 40 64 / 0 0 0 30
LAKE ROBERTS 35 63 34 55 / 0 0 10 50
HURLEY 39 67 35 59 / 0 0 10 30
CLIFF 38 70 36 63 / 0 0 20 50
MULE CREEK 37 64 36 58 / 0 10 30 50
FAYWOOD 43 67 39 59 / 0 0 0 30
ANIMAS 48 74 41 66 / 0 0 0 30
HACHITA 48 73 41 64 / 0 0 0 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 73 41 67 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVERDALE 45 67 40 61 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-
SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE
FOOTHILLS-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SIERRA
COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA
RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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