069
FXUS64 KEPZ 181138 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
538 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, LOW END
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
- WINDY TODAY WITH MORE BLOWING DUST AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, TRENDING LIGHTER SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE BORDERLAND AS THE GREAT
BASIN LOW THAT BROUGHT THURSDAY'S CONDITIONS CONTINUES ITS DRAWN-
OUT AND DRAMATIC DESCENT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WORKING TO
SLING ITSELF INTO NORTHWEST AZ TODAY, A TIGHT H5 PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER NM AND FAR WEST TX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ALOFT
THAT BROUGHT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH TO SEVERAL LOCALES
YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED OFF TO GREENER PASTURES, LEAVING A MORE
REASONABLE WASH OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS AT 700 MB. WHILE SOME 50 KT
BULLSEYES EXIST EARLIER IN THE DAY IN AND AROUND DONA ANA CO,
THEY'LL BE HARD PRESSED TO TRULY FIND THE NECESSARY MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO HARASS THE SURFACE. STILL, ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST, SO
DID MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WIND ADVISORY. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL HAVE A MORE WESTERLY FLAVOR, BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF IMPACTFUL BLOWING DUST TO MUCH OF THE CWA. WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE LOW WILL TAKE A TURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO
FOLLOW THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR INTO NM. NOT TOUTING A THRILLING
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, THE SYSTEM WILL SIDESWIPE THE BORDERLAND WITH
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FAVORED FOR THE BEST COVERAGE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL BE
USHERED IN WITH THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING MOST LOCALES TO FALL AROUND
10F COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY'S READINGS. AFTER ITS GLANCING
BLOW, THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART INTO THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY
NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO SETUP IN ITS WAKE.
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT RH WILL TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, SO KEEP THAT CHAPSTICK ON THE READY. A REGIME OF ZONAL
FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD TO START THE WORK WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY BENIGN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WLY TO SWLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY AFT 18/15Z, WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN BTWN 18/20Z AND 18/23Z FOR
MOST TERMINALS. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CREATE AREAS OF BLDU, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AND AROUND AREA TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY KDMN, KLRU, AND KELP. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AFT 19/03Z BUT
WILL STAY ELEVATED AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
..CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS LONG DESCENT INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. FAIR RECOVERY THIS MORNING
WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL HUMIDITY AS VALUES
PLUMMET INTO THE LOW DOUBLE AND SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MOST ZONES SEEING GUSTS BETWEEN 35
AND 45 MPH OUT OF THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST, CREATING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AZ
ON SATURDAY AND THEN MIGRATE EAST, BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT IN NATURE AND WETTING RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER AND HUMIDITY WILL IMPROVE BUT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL STILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR
WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM'S EXIT ON SUNDAY, BRINGING THE
RETURN OF WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT RH. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY, HELPING TO TEMPER CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 53 70 45 / 0 0 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 78 47 72 41 / 10 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 74 42 65 35 / 0 0 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 74 44 66 36 / 0 0 30 10
CLOUDCROFT 51 31 44 25 / 0 0 40 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 43 62 37 / 0 0 40 10
SILVER CITY 63 37 54 32 / 0 10 40 0
DEMING 74 42 65 35 / 0 0 30 0
LORDSBURG 71 40 62 33 / 0 10 40 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 52 68 45 / 0 0 20 0
DELL CITY 80 46 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 84 49 77 43 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 73 47 64 40 / 0 0 20 0
FABENS 81 49 73 43 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 76 47 67 40 / 0 0 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 51 66 44 / 0 0 30 10
JORNADA RANGE 73 43 65 35 / 0 0 30 0
HATCH 75 45 66 35 / 0 0 30 0
COLUMBUS 76 47 67 39 / 0 0 20 0
OROGRANDE 74 45 66 38 / 0 0 30 10
MAYHILL 63 37 56 30 / 0 0 30 20
MESCALERO 61 34 54 28 / 0 0 40 20
TIMBERON 61 32 53 27 / 0 0 30 10
WINSTON 62 29 53 27 / 0 10 50 10
HILLSBORO 68 39 60 33 / 0 10 40 0
SPACEPORT 72 40 63 33 / 0 0 30 10
LAKE ROBERTS 61 34 53 27 / 0 10 50 10
HURLEY 66 35 57 30 / 0 10 30 0
CLIFF 69 36 61 29 / 0 20 40 0
MULE CREEK 64 36 57 31 / 0 30 50 0
FAYWOOD 66 39 58 33 / 0 0 30 0
ANIMAS 73 41 65 35 / 0 0 30 0
HACHITA 72 41 63 35 / 0 0 30 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 72 41 65 36 / 0 0 20 0
CLOVERDALE 66 40 60 36 / 0 0 20 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL
PASO COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA
RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...99
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