200
FXUS64 KEPZ 181737
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1137 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, LOW END
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
- WINDY TODAY WITH MORE BLOWING DUST AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, TRENDING LIGHTER SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE BORDERLAND AS THE GREAT
BASIN LOW THAT BROUGHT THURSDAY'S CONDITIONS CONTINUES ITS DRAWN-
OUT AND DRAMATIC DESCENT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WORKING TO
SLING ITSELF INTO NORTHWEST AZ TODAY, A TIGHT H5 PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER NM AND FAR WEST TX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ALOFT
THAT BROUGHT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH TO SEVERAL LOCALES
YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED OFF TO GREENER PASTURES, LEAVING A MORE
REASONABLE WASH OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS AT 700 MB. WHILE SOME 50 KT
BULLSEYES EXIST EARLIER IN THE DAY IN AND AROUND DONA ANA CO,
THEY'LL BE HARD PRESSED TO TRULY FIND THE NECESSARY MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO HARASS THE SURFACE. STILL, ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST, SO
DID MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WIND ADVISORY. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL HAVE A MORE WESTERLY FLAVOR, BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF IMPACTFUL BLOWING DUST TO MUCH OF THE CWA. WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE LOW WILL TAKE A TURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO
FOLLOW THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR INTO NM. NOT TOUTING A THRILLING
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, THE SYSTEM WILL SIDESWIPE THE BORDERLAND WITH
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FAVORED FOR THE BEST COVERAGE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL BE
USHERED IN WITH THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING MOST LOCALES TO FALL AROUND
10F COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY'S READINGS. AFTER ITS GLANCING
BLOW, THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART INTO THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY
NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO SETUP IN ITS WAKE.
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT RH WILL TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, SO KEEP THAT CHAPSTICK ON THE READY. A REGIME OF ZONAL
FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD TO START THE WORK WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY BENIGN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
W-SW WINDS ARE INCREASING TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD, LOFTING
DUST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. VIS BELOW 1 MILE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON EXCLUDING KTCS WHICH COULD ALSO SEE VIS REDUCED TO 5
MILES OR LESS. VIS REDUCTIONS MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SETTLING AFTER SUNSET, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. AS WE TRACK SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND GROUND OBSERVATIONS FOR BLOWING DUST, AMENDMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 30KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 KTS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, SLOWLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT
BUT STAYING BREEZY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AN AWW WAS ISSUED
EARLIER FOR KELP SINCE WINDS WILL EASILY EXCEED CRITERIA. OTHER
THAN FEW-SCT250 PASSING OVERHEAD, SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR,
OUTSIDE OF THE BLOWING DUST OF COURSE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
..CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS LONG DESCENT INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. FAIR RECOVERY THIS MORNING
WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL HUMIDITY AS VALUES
PLUMMET INTO THE LOW DOUBLE AND SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MOST ZONES SEEING GUSTS BETWEEN 35
AND 45 MPH OUT OF THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST, CREATING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AZ
ON SATURDAY AND THEN MIGRATE EAST, BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT IN NATURE AND WETTING RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER AND HUMIDITY WILL IMPROVE BUT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL STILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR
WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM'S EXIT ON SUNDAY, BRINGING THE
RETURN OF WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT RH. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY, HELPING TO TEMPER CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 52 70 45 / 0 0 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 78 46 73 39 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 74 43 64 35 / 0 0 50 0
ALAMOGORDO 74 45 66 35 / 0 0 50 20
CLOUDCROFT 51 30 45 22 / 0 0 50 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 44 62 37 / 0 0 60 10
SILVER CITY 63 37 53 31 / 0 10 60 0
DEMING 74 42 65 34 / 0 0 60 0
LORDSBURG 71 40 61 31 / 0 0 70 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 51 68 45 / 0 0 30 0
DELL CITY 80 45 73 39 / 0 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 84 48 78 41 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 73 45 64 39 / 0 0 20 0
FABENS 81 48 73 42 / 0 0 20 0
SANTA TERESA 76 47 66 39 / 0 0 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 50 66 43 / 0 0 50 10
JORNADA RANGE 73 43 64 34 / 0 0 50 10
HATCH 75 44 65 35 / 0 0 60 10
COLUMBUS 76 46 66 39 / 0 0 50 0
OROGRANDE 74 46 65 37 / 0 0 40 10
MAYHILL 63 35 57 29 / 0 0 40 20
MESCALERO 61 35 55 25 / 0 0 60 30
TIMBERON 61 31 53 24 / 0 0 40 10
WINSTON 62 31 52 26 / 0 10 70 10
HILLSBORO 68 39 60 33 / 0 0 60 10
SPACEPORT 72 40 62 31 / 0 0 60 10
LAKE ROBERTS 61 28 53 17 / 0 10 70 0
HURLEY 66 35 58 29 / 0 0 60 0
CLIFF 69 36 61 28 / 0 20 70 0
MULE CREEK 64 33 56 25 / 0 30 70 0
FAYWOOD 66 39 56 33 / 0 0 60 0
ANIMAS 73 40 64 34 / 0 0 60 0
HACHITA 72 41 62 33 / 0 0 60 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 72 41 65 35 / 0 0 50 0
CLOVERDALE 66 40 60 36 / 0 0 50 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-
SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page