857
FXUS64 KEPZ 182004
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
204 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS LINGER THIS EVENING, THEN BREEZY AND
COOLER FOR SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES.
- LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER ON SUNDAY.
- WARM AND DRY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
ANOTHER DUSTY, WINDY DAY HAS TRANSPIRED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. SEVERAL DUST STORM WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS VIS HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO
BE A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS. TWO MAIN DUST PLUMES ARE
ONGOING: ONE FROM HWY 9 NE INTO THE TULAROSA BASIN, AND THE SECOND
FROM TORNILLO TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DUST IS FILLING INTO EL PASO
WITH WORSENING VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GROUND
OBSERVATIONS FOR ANY FURTHER DSWS OR IF WE'RE LUCKY, EARLY
CANCELLATIONS. LIKE YESTERDAY, THE DUST IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
THE EVENING, BUT THIN OUT AFTER SUNSET ONCE OUR WINDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE. WIND ADVISORIES AND DUST ADVISORIES (NOW INCLUDING ALL
OF FAR WEST TX) ARE IN PLACE UNTIL 8PM.
FOR TONIGHT, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WITH
THE CIRCULATION REACHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GIVE MOST AREAS A
CHANCE OF PRECIP TOMORROW. AREAS TO THE N AND W WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN/MTN SNOW (ABOUT 50%), WHILE FAR WEST TX HAS
A SLIM CHANCE OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF T-1" ABOVE 7000FT ARE EXPECTED WITH QPF OF
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1". IT WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP WITH
THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL STAY BREEZY FOR SATURDAY (15-25 MPH SUSTAINED), BEGINNING
W-SW AND SHIFTING W-NW BY THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER
LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE SAT NIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN AS ZONAL FLOW TAKES
OVER EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE DRYLINE SETS UP TO OUR EAST BY
MIDWEEK, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE A NON-PLAYER FOR US. NON-
MENTIONABLE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW FOR EACH AFTERNOON LATER
IN THE PERIOD SINCE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE DRYLINE STAYS
TO THE EAST. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE, MODEST W-SW WINDS
PERSIST WITH NO MAJOR WIND STORMS ON THE HORIZON. AFTER A
SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL ON
MONDAY, STAYING IN THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
W-SW WINDS ARE INCREASING TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD, LOFTING
DUST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. VIS BELOW 1 MILE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON EXCLUDING KTCS WHICH COULD ALSO SEE VIS REDUCED TO 5
MILES OR LESS. VIS REDUCTIONS MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SETTLING AFTER SUNSET, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. AS WE TRACK SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND GROUND OBSERVATIONS FOR BLOWING DUST, AMENDMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 30KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 KTS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, SLOWLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT
BUT STAYING BREEZY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AN AWW WAS ISSUED
EARLIER FOR KELP SINCE WINDS WILL EASILY EXCEED CRITERIA. OTHER
THAN FEW-SCT250 PASSING OVERHEAD, SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR,
OUTSIDE OF THE BLOWING DUST OF COURSE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING DUE TO BRISK WINDS FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND LOW HUMIDITY. GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN/MTN
SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FOR SATURDAY, THE ADDED
MOISTURE WILL HELP LIMIT FIRE SPREAD, BUT BREEZY WEST WINDS
CONTINUE, CREATING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. FUELS WILL MOISTEN
SOMEWHAT AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT WILL DRY OUT AGAIN NEXT
WEEK UNDER ZONAL/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AFTER SATURDAY, THE
REST OF THE FORECAST WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
SWINGS THROUGH, WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MIN RHS WILL BE 10-20% NEAR THE INT'L BORDER, 20-35% ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY; THEN 5-12% EVERYWHERE. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO VERY
GOOD SUNDAY, MOSTLY EXCELLENT ALL OTHER DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 70 45 75 / 0 20 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 73 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 64 35 72 / 0 40 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 45 66 35 72 / 0 50 20 0
CLOUDCROFT 30 45 22 50 / 0 50 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 44 62 37 73 / 0 50 10 0
SILVER CITY 37 53 31 67 / 10 60 0 0
DEMING 42 65 34 74 / 0 50 0 0
LORDSBURG 40 61 31 72 / 0 50 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 51 68 45 73 / 0 20 0 0
DELL CITY 45 73 39 75 / 0 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 48 78 41 77 / 0 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 45 64 39 67 / 0 20 0 0
FABENS 48 73 42 75 / 0 20 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 66 39 71 / 0 30 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 66 43 73 / 0 40 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 43 64 34 73 / 0 50 10 0
HATCH 44 65 35 75 / 0 50 10 0
COLUMBUS 46 66 39 74 / 0 40 0 0
OROGRANDE 46 65 37 71 / 0 40 10 0
MAYHILL 35 57 29 64 / 0 40 20 0
MESCALERO 35 55 25 61 / 0 50 30 0
TIMBERON 31 53 24 60 / 0 40 10 0
WINSTON 31 52 26 68 / 10 60 10 0
HILLSBORO 39 60 33 73 / 0 50 10 0
SPACEPORT 40 62 31 72 / 0 50 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 28 53 17 68 / 10 60 0 0
HURLEY 35 58 29 70 / 0 50 0 0
CLIFF 36 61 28 75 / 20 50 0 0
MULE CREEK 33 56 25 70 / 30 50 0 0
FAYWOOD 39 56 33 70 / 0 50 0 0
ANIMAS 40 64 34 73 / 0 40 0 0
HACHITA 41 62 33 72 / 0 50 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 41 65 35 75 / 0 50 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 60 36 71 / 0 40 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-
SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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