364
FXUS64 KEPZ 190526
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1126 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS LINGER THIS EVENING, THEN BREEZY AND
COOLER FOR SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES.
- LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER ON SUNDAY.
- WARM AND DRY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
ANOTHER DUSTY, WINDY DAY HAS TRANSPIRED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. SEVERAL DUST STORM WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS VIS HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO
BE A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS. TWO MAIN DUST PLUMES ARE
ONGOING: ONE FROM HWY 9 NE INTO THE TULAROSA BASIN, AND THE SECOND
FROM TORNILLO TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DUST IS FILLING INTO EL PASO
WITH WORSENING VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GROUND
OBSERVATIONS FOR ANY FURTHER DSWS OR IF WE'RE LUCKY, EARLY
CANCELLATIONS. LIKE YESTERDAY, THE DUST IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
THE EVENING, BUT THIN OUT AFTER SUNSET ONCE OUR WINDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE. WIND ADVISORIES AND DUST ADVISORIES (NOW INCLUDING ALL
OF FAR WEST TX) ARE IN PLACE UNTIL 8PM.
FOR TONIGHT, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WITH
THE CIRCULATION REACHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GIVE MOST AREAS A
CHANCE OF PRECIP TOMORROW. AREAS TO THE N AND W WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN/MTN SNOW (ABOUT 50%), WHILE FAR WEST TX HAS
A SLIM CHANCE OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF T-1" ABOVE 7000FT ARE EXPECTED WITH QPF OF
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1". IT WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP WITH
THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL STAY BREEZY FOR SATURDAY (15-25 MPH SUSTAINED), BEGINNING
W-SW AND SHIFTING W-NW BY THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER
LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE SAT NIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN AS ZONAL FLOW TAKES
OVER EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE DRYLINE SETS UP TO OUR EAST BY
MIDWEEK, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE A NON-PLAYER FOR US. NON-
MENTIONABLE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW FOR EACH AFTERNOON LATER
IN THE PERIOD SINCE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE DRYLINE STAYS
TO THE EAST. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE, MODEST W-SW WINDS
PERSIST WITH NO MAJOR WIND STORMS ON THE HORIZON. AFTER A
SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL ON
MONDAY, STAYING IN THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
MAINLY SKC, WITH SCT200 BKN-OVC250 EAST OF FORT HANCOCK MOVING
EAST OF AREA AFTER 09Z. MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
09Z...SCT100 BKN150 BKN-OVC250 ISOLATED BKN050 -SHRA WITH
ISOLATED OVC040 -SHSN ABOVE 7000 FT. SHOWERS MOVING WITH COLD FRONT
TO ABOUT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND OVER TO THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS BY 21Z. COLD FRONT TO KTCS-KDMN AROUND 15Z AND
EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES BY 21Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING DUE TO BRISK WINDS FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND LOW HUMIDITY. GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN/MTN
SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FOR SATURDAY, THE ADDED
MOISTURE WILL HELP LIMIT FIRE SPREAD, BUT BREEZY WEST WINDS
CONTINUE, CREATING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. FUELS WILL MOISTEN
SOMEWHAT AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT WILL DRY OUT AGAIN NEXT
WEEK UNDER ZONAL/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AFTER SATURDAY, THE
REST OF THE FORECAST WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
SWINGS THROUGH, WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MIN RHS WILL BE 10-20% NEAR THE INT'L BORDER, 20-35% ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY; THEN 5-12% EVERYWHERE. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO VERY
GOOD SUNDAY, MOSTLY EXCELLENT ALL OTHER DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 70 45 75 / 0 20 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 73 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 64 35 72 / 0 40 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 45 66 35 72 / 0 50 20 0
CLOUDCROFT 30 45 22 50 / 0 50 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 44 62 37 73 / 0 50 10 0
SILVER CITY 37 53 31 67 / 10 60 0 0
DEMING 42 65 34 74 / 0 50 0 0
LORDSBURG 40 61 31 72 / 0 50 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 51 68 45 73 / 0 20 0 0
DELL CITY 45 73 39 75 / 0 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 48 78 41 77 / 0 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 45 64 39 67 / 0 20 0 0
FABENS 48 73 42 75 / 0 20 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 66 39 71 / 0 30 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 66 43 73 / 0 40 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 43 64 34 73 / 0 50 10 0
HATCH 44 65 35 75 / 0 50 10 0
COLUMBUS 46 66 39 74 / 0 40 0 0
OROGRANDE 46 65 37 71 / 0 40 10 0
MAYHILL 35 57 29 64 / 0 40 20 0
MESCALERO 35 55 25 61 / 0 50 30 0
TIMBERON 31 53 24 60 / 0 40 10 0
WINSTON 31 52 26 68 / 10 60 10 0
HILLSBORO 39 60 33 73 / 0 50 10 0
SPACEPORT 40 62 31 72 / 0 50 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 28 53 17 68 / 10 60 0 0
HURLEY 35 58 29 70 / 0 50 0 0
CLIFF 36 61 28 75 / 20 50 0 0
MULE CREEK 33 56 25 70 / 30 50 0 0
FAYWOOD 39 56 33 70 / 0 50 0 0
ANIMAS 40 64 34 73 / 0 40 0 0
HACHITA 41 62 33 72 / 0 50 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 41 65 35 75 / 0 50 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 60 36 71 / 0 40 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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