920
FXUS64 KEPZ 190850
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
250 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES.
- LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER ON SUNDAY.
- WARM AND DRY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
CENTER CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AS THE
SYSTEM DIVES INTO AZ. THE DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN
EARLY IN THE MORNING, HEADING EAST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
NM. A SCANT FETCH OF MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN OF PERIPHERY
HAS ALREADY BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF AZ AND
WESTERN NM, WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM BEFORE
SUNRISE. POSITION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERN
AND NORTHERN ZONES TO BE FAVORED FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE NOT A REMARKABLE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXISTS, A GRUMBLE OF THUNDER HERE AND THERE AND
SPATTERING OF GRAUPEL ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.
QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.1" ACROSS SOUTHERN NM,
WITH FAR WEST TX UNLIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT ALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE PACIFIC FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING AFTER THE
FROPA. SATURDAY WILL PARTY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE
COLDER AIR MASS, WITH MOST LOCALES SEEING AROUND A 10F REDUCTION
FROM FRIDAY'S READINGS. THE LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ON SUNDAY
WITH RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS.
A REGIME OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
INTO THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HINT TO THE SETUP OF THE
DRYLINE AROUND MID TO LATE WEEK THAT COULD BRING MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE TO FAR WEST TX. THAT SAID, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE
DRYLINE REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST, KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA JUST
BEYOND ITS REACH. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE WORK WEEK AMONGST LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
MAINLY SKC, WITH SCT200 BKN-OVC250 EAST OF FORT HANCOCK MOVING
EAST OF AREA AFTER 09Z. MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
09Z...SCT100 BKN150 BKN-OVC250 ISOLATED BKN050 -SHRA WITH
ISOLATED OVC040 -SHSN ABOVE 7000 FT. SHOWERS MOVING WITH COLD FRONT
TO ABOUT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND OVER TO THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS BY 21Z. COLD FRONT TO KTCS-KDMN AROUND 15Z AND
EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES BY 21Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AS WELL AS COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE, NEARLY ALL ZONES--SAVE
FOR HUDSPETH--WILL SEE MINIMUM RH SETTLE ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL BE REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS BUT A
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING WIND SHIFTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TO THE
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM BUT
WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOCALIZED, FAVORING THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WHILE INSTABILITY ISN'T ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE, A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TRAVERSES THE BORDERLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, BRINGING MINRH
BACK INTO THE LOW DOUBLE AND SINGLE DIGITS. LIGHT WINDS WILL WORK
TO TEMPER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, RESULTING IN VERY DRY CONDITIONS
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 44 74 51 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 73 39 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 62 35 71 43 / 40 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 35 72 42 / 50 20 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 22 49 30 / 60 30 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 37 72 44 / 50 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 31 68 40 / 60 10 0 0
DEMING 62 34 73 41 / 60 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 60 32 72 39 / 60 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 44 72 52 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 73 39 76 41 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 77 41 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 63 39 67 48 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 72 42 75 46 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 65 39 71 44 / 30 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 43 73 50 / 40 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 63 34 72 39 / 50 10 0 0
HATCH 63 35 74 40 / 50 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 65 39 74 44 / 40 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 65 37 71 43 / 40 10 0 0
MAYHILL 55 29 64 34 / 40 20 0 0
MESCALERO 53 25 60 33 / 60 40 0 0
TIMBERON 52 25 60 33 / 40 20 0 0
WINSTON 51 26 68 32 / 60 20 0 0
HILLSBORO 58 33 72 41 / 60 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 60 31 71 38 / 50 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 51 22 68 35 / 70 10 0 0
HURLEY 56 29 70 38 / 60 10 0 0
CLIFF 60 28 74 35 / 60 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 55 28 70 38 / 60 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 55 33 70 41 / 60 10 0 0
ANIMAS 62 35 73 40 / 60 0 0 0
HACHITA 61 33 72 39 / 60 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 35 74 43 / 40 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 59 36 71 45 / 40 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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