020
FXUS64 KEPZ 191808
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1208 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES.
- LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER ON SUNDAY.
- WARM AND DRY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
CENTER CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AS THE
SYSTEM DIVES INTO AZ. THE DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN
EARLY IN THE MORNING, HEADING EAST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
NM. A SCANT FETCH OF MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN OF PERIPHERY
HAS ALREADY BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF AZ AND
WESTERN NM, WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM BEFORE
SUNRISE. POSITION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERN
AND NORTHERN ZONES TO BE FAVORED FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE NOT A REMARKABLE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXISTS, A GRUMBLE OF THUNDER HERE AND THERE AND
SPATTERING OF GRAUPEL ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.
QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.1" ACROSS SOUTHERN NM,
WITH FAR WEST TX UNLIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT ALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE PACIFIC FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING AFTER THE
FROPA. SATURDAY WILL PARTY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE
COLDER AIR MASS, WITH MOST LOCALES SEEING AROUND A 10F REDUCTION
FROM FRIDAY'S READINGS. THE LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ON SUNDAY
WITH RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS.
A REGIME OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
INTO THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HINT TO THE SETUP OF THE
DRYLINE AROUND MID TO LATE WEEK THAT COULD BRING MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE TO FAR WEST TX. THAT SAID, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE
DRYLINE REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST, KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA JUST
BEYOND ITS REACH. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE WORK WEEK AMONGST LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KLRU BY 21Z WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE OF THE RAIN MAKING IT TO KELP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF KELP GETTING RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. BEHIND THE
RAIN BAND, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP, COMING TO AN END
BY 0Z. CIGS FALL TO ABOUT 060 WITH THE RAIN BAND, THEN CLEARING
OUT THIS EVENING WITH SKC RETURNING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED NW AT KDMN AND KTCS AND WILL DO SO SHORTLY AT KLRU,
FOLLOWED BY KELP IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE WIND SHIFT HAS PICKED UP
SOME BLDU NEAR KDMN WHICH COULD PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
KLRU AND KELP THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUST TO AROUND 30KTS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, THEN
SUBSIDING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AS WELL AS COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE, NEARLY ALL ZONES--SAVE
FOR HUDSPETH--WILL SEE MINIMUM RH SETTLE ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL BE REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS BUT A
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING WIND SHIFTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TO THE
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM BUT
WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOCALIZED, FAVORING THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WHILE INSTABILITY ISN'T ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE, A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TRAVERSES THE BORDERLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, BRINGING MINRH
BACK INTO THE LOW DOUBLE AND SINGLE DIGITS. LIGHT WINDS WILL WORK
TO TEMPER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, RESULTING IN VERY DRY CONDITIONS
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 45 75 51 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 73 38 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 62 35 72 42 / 40 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 35 70 42 / 50 20 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 21 49 30 / 60 20 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 36 73 43 / 50 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 31 67 41 / 60 0 0 0
DEMING 62 34 74 41 / 60 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 60 31 72 38 / 60 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 45 73 52 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 73 38 74 40 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 77 41 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 63 38 66 48 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 72 41 74 46 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 65 38 71 44 / 30 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 43 73 50 / 40 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 63 33 72 39 / 50 10 0 0
HATCH 63 34 74 39 / 50 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 65 38 74 44 / 40 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 65 37 69 43 / 40 10 0 0
MAYHILL 55 29 64 34 / 40 10 0 0
MESCALERO 53 25 59 33 / 60 20 0 0
TIMBERON 52 24 59 33 / 40 10 0 0
WINSTON 51 25 67 32 / 60 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 58 32 72 41 / 60 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 60 30 72 38 / 50 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 51 19 69 25 / 70 10 0 0
HURLEY 56 28 71 38 / 60 0 0 0
CLIFF 60 28 74 36 / 60 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 55 26 69 35 / 60 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 55 33 68 41 / 60 10 0 0
ANIMAS 62 33 74 39 / 60 0 0 0
HACHITA 61 33 72 39 / 60 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 35 74 42 / 40 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 59 36 70 45 / 40 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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