434
FXUS64 KEPZ 191943
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
143 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES END THIS EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE.
- LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER ON SUNDAY.
- WARM AND DRY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAY IS ONGOING AS A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING AN
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT HAS LOFTED SOME DUST IN LUNA COUNTY, PROGRESSING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INT'L BORDER. VIS HAS DROPPED TO BELOW 1
MILE AT EPZ AND SEVERAL DUST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO TRACK THE DUST AS IT HEADS INTO FAR WEST TX FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL DUST PRODUCTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT IS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER RGV. ANY RAINFALL FROM THIS BAND WILL BE
LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS, IF ANY. THE
SACS COULD SEE HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITH
SOME SNOW MIXING IN. THE WARM GROUND TEMPS HOWEVER, WILL LIMIT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (<1") IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. AS THE RAIN BAND
PROGRESSES THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS MOISTURE AND
STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL FROM ABOUT EL PASO EASTWARD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BEHIND THE
RAIN BAND WITH LOW CEILINGS AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTH
OF LORDSBURG. THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE
EAST. IN TERMS OF WINDS, THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STAY BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.
ONCE THE LOW DEPARTS, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT WEST WINDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE WORK WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS). MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEGINNING ON SUNDAY,
BUT A DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP BY TUESDAY EAST OF OUR AREA. THE
GULF MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO OUR EAST AND KEEP ANY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OUT OF OUR CWA NEXT WEEK. FAR EASTERN
AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING
ON TUESDAY, BUT MOSTLY NON-MENTIONABLE (<15%). A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES LATER IN THE WEEK COULD GIVE US A BETTER SHOT OF THE
DRYLINE NUDGING FURTHER WEST AND ENHANCING THE RETURN FLOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KLRU BY 21Z WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE OF THE RAIN MAKING IT TO KELP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF KELP GETTING RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. BEHIND THE
RAIN BAND, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP, COMING TO AN END
BY 0Z. CIGS FALL TO ABOUT 060 WITH THE RAIN BAND, THEN CLEARING
OUT THIS EVENING WITH SKC RETURNING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED NW AT KDMN AND KTCS AND WILL DO SO SHORTLY AT KLRU,
FOLLOWED BY KELP IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE WIND SHIFT HAS PICKED UP
SOME BLDU NEAR KDMN WHICH COULD PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
KLRU AND KELP THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUST TO AROUND 30KTS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, THEN
SUBSIDING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS LINGER THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD. FOR SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND
LOWER HUMIDITY UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
MODEST SW FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH
MODEST AFTERNOON BREEZES.
MIN RHS WILL BE 7-15% SUNDAY, THEN 4-10%. VENT RATES RANGE FROM
FAIR TO VERY GOOD SUNDAY, THEN MOSTLY EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 75 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 38 69 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 72 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 70 42 81 / 20 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 21 49 30 60 / 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 36 73 43 81 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 31 67 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 34 74 41 83 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 31 72 38 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 45 73 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 38 74 39 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 41 76 46 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 66 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 41 74 46 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 38 71 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 43 73 50 83 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 33 72 39 82 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 34 74 39 85 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 38 74 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 37 69 43 81 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 29 64 34 74 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 25 59 33 71 / 20 0 0 0
TIMBERON 24 59 33 70 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 25 67 32 75 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 32 72 41 80 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 30 72 38 81 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 19 69 25 76 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 28 71 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 28 74 36 82 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 26 69 35 77 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 68 41 77 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 33 74 39 85 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 33 72 39 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 74 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 70 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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