699
FXUS64 KEPZ 200024
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
624 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES END THIS EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE.
- LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER ON SUNDAY.
- WARM AND DRY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAY IS ONGOING AS A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING AN
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT HAS LOFTED SOME DUST IN LUNA COUNTY, PROGRESSING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INT'L BORDER. VIS HAS DROPPED TO BELOW 1
MILE AT EPZ AND SEVERAL DUST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO TRACK THE DUST AS IT HEADS INTO FAR WEST TX FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL DUST PRODUCTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT IS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER RGV. ANY RAINFALL FROM THIS BAND WILL BE
LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS, IF ANY. THE
SACS COULD SEE HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITH
SOME SNOW MIXING IN. THE WARM GROUND TEMPS HOWEVER, WILL LIMIT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (<1") IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. AS THE RAIN BAND
PROGRESSES THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS MOISTURE AND
STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL FROM ABOUT EL PASO EASTWARD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BEHIND THE
RAIN BAND WITH LOW CEILINGS AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTH
OF LORDSBURG. THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE
EAST. IN TERMS OF WINDS, THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STAY BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.
ONCE THE LOW DEPARTS, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT WEST WINDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE WORK WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS). MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEGINNING ON SUNDAY,
BUT A DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP BY TUESDAY EAST OF OUR AREA. THE
GULF MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO OUR EAST AND KEEP ANY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OUT OF OUR CWA NEXT WEEK. FAR EASTERN
AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING
ON TUESDAY, BUT MOSTLY NON-MENTIONABLE (<15%). A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES LATER IN THE WEEK COULD GIVE US A BETTER SHOT OF THE
DRYLINE NUDGING FURTHER WEST AND ENHANCING THE RETURN FLOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
AND GUSTY WNW TO NW FLOW CONTINUES IN ITS WAKE, THOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN A BRIEF LULL BEHIND A BAND OF PRECIP THAT PUSHED THROUGH.
THIS BAND HAS MOSTLY BROKEN UP EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
AND EAST OF ELP, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS
SIERRA AND NORTHERN OTERO COUNTIES, WHICH COULD GRAZE TCS BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS COULD BECOME A GUSTY AGAIN IN ANY
SHOWERS UP THERE.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SOME LIGHT BLOWING DUST COULD WORK
BACK INTO ELP FROM THE WEST, BUT VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE 7 TO 10 MILE RANGE EAST OF THE FRANKLINS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH
LIGHTER WINDS PREVAILING AREA-WIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS LINGER THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD. FOR SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND
LOWER HUMIDITY UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
MODEST SW FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH
MODEST AFTERNOON BREEZES.
MIN RHS WILL BE 7-15% SUNDAY, THEN 4-10%. VENT RATES RANGE FROM
FAIR TO VERY GOOD SUNDAY, THEN MOSTLY EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 75 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 39 69 44 84 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 36 72 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 36 70 42 81 / 30 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 22 49 30 60 / 50 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 73 43 81 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 32 67 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 34 74 41 83 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 32 72 38 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 45 73 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 38 74 39 86 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 41 76 46 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 66 48 79 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 41 74 46 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 39 71 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 44 73 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 34 72 39 82 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 35 74 39 85 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 38 74 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 38 69 43 81 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 30 64 34 74 / 30 0 0 0
MESCALERO 26 59 33 71 / 50 0 0 0
TIMBERON 25 59 33 70 / 30 0 0 0
WINSTON 26 67 32 75 / 20 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 33 72 41 80 / 20 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 30 72 38 81 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 20 69 25 76 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 29 71 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 29 74 36 82 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 26 69 35 77 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 68 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 34 74 39 85 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 34 72 39 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 74 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 70 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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