927
FXUS64 KEPZ 031126
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
526 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT THU MAY 3 2025
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
- SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH SOME BLOWING DUST AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER FOR THE SOUTHWEST LOWLANDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A SLOW, EASTWARD MOVING REX BLOCK COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THIS MORNING, AND IT'S SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UL TROUGHS.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE PUSHED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THIS MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH
THE WEAK UL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REX BLOCK TO GIVE US
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR OUR MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE LOWLANDS, A CONVERGENCE LINE/ PRESSURE TROUGH/ WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHICH MAY SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS. THE HRRR IS NOT OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC FOR
LOWLAND STORM CHANCES, BUT THE NAM NEST IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE.
THE HREF SHOWS A MODEST TO MODERATE SIGNAL (20-30% CHANCE) FOR
STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, GUSTY WINDS, BLOWING DUST,
AND SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 40-50 KNOTS, BUT CAPE LOOKS LACKING
WITH NBM ONLY SHOWING LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF EXCEEDING 500
J/KG. IF HIGHER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, A STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT SHOULD STORMS FORM,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE INVERTED V SOUNDING.
THE TINY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REX BLOCK WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY
SATURDAY EVENING AS IT'S ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN CA IN THE MORNING BEFORE PUSHING INTO AZ BY EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE H500 JET TO NUDGE INTO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE STATE
TO FOSTER BREEZY CONDITIONS. LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE NBM,
HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS BY A FEW KNOTS. NEVERTHELESS, LOW-END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING DUST REMAIN CONCERNS.
THE LOW WILL ALSO PUSH MOISTURE EAST, ERODING IT FROM MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
RETAIN MOISTURE WITH DECENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%). JUST
LIKE SATURDAY, ANY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL YIELD A MODEST
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
THE TROUGH IS NOT GOING TO BE IN A HURRY TO LEAVE. SUNDAY'S LOW.
THE LOW WILL EXPAND, PUSHING THE MAIN JET SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH A BREEZY AFTERNOON. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE DRY LINE WILL KEEP A MODEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR EASTERN AREAS ON
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THOUGH, THE LOW WILL HAVE EXPANDED ENOUGH SOUTH
TO COMPLETELY PUSH THE JET STREAM WELL INTO MEXICO. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BENEATH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LACK OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE LIGHTER GIVEN THE LACK OF JET OVERHEAD. WE RINSE AND
REPEAT FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOBE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE MAIN LOW SHIFTS TOWARD KS. WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
CONTINUING TO FAVOR MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS.
FINALLY BY THURSDAY, THE UL BEGINS TO EXIT WHILE RIDGING BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EAST IN ITS WAKE. THE EURO KEEPS LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES FOR EASTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN ACROSS THE PLAINS, TURNING WINDS FROM THE
EAST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE, BRINGING BACK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE
PICTURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BENEATH THE UL RIDGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SKC BECOMING FEW-
SCT080-100 BY 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE S
TO SE (160-130). THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
LOWLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS IS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 30%. MAIN IMPACTS
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS, INCLUDING FLIGHT CAT
REDUCTIONS SHOULD A STORM OCCUR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AREA WIDE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH
GOOD RECOVERIES FORECAST TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE WILL RETREAT SOME
TO THE EAST WITH DRY AIR RETURNING TO MAINLY THE HIDALGO COUNTY BY
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOW RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING, MAINLY FOR
THE GILA. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10
MPH.
ON SUNDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN UL LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST WITH MOST LOWLAND
LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND 10% MIN RH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A
LITTLE LIGHTER WITH WIND SPEEDS CASTING SOME DOUBT ON WHETHER NM
ZONE 111 (SOUTHWEST LOWLANDS) WILL REACH CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS
ON A WIDESPREAD LEVEL. WITH THIS DOWNWARD TREND, I ELECTED TO
DEFER UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT. PARTS OF
THE BLACK RANGE AND SOUTHERN GILA WILL ALSO FEATURE NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS.
NO CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY ONWARDS ALTHOUGH
LOWLANDS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO
MID TEENS. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, HOWEVER.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY MOUNTAINS, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AT
LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS AN UL LOW IS
SLOW TO LEAVE THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 81 57 85 55 / 30 30 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 75 51 80 47 / 30 30 20 10
LAS CRUCES 77 49 80 46 / 30 30 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 79 49 79 47 / 30 30 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 56 36 55 33 / 40 40 60 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 76 52 77 48 / 30 30 20 20
SILVER CITY 71 46 70 38 / 40 30 10 10
DEMING 80 49 81 46 / 30 30 0 0
LORDSBURG 79 47 77 39 / 20 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 79 58 83 55 / 30 30 10 10
DELL CITY 78 52 80 47 / 30 30 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 83 54 89 50 / 30 30 20 10
LOMA LINDA 73 52 76 49 / 30 30 20 20
FABENS 81 55 86 52 / 30 30 10 10
SANTA TERESA 78 52 82 50 / 20 30 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 79 56 80 54 / 30 30 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 78 48 80 45 / 30 30 20 20
HATCH 80 49 82 47 / 30 30 20 10
COLUMBUS 81 51 83 50 / 20 30 0 0
OROGRANDE 76 52 78 48 / 30 30 20 20
MAYHILL 68 40 65 37 / 40 40 70 60
MESCALERO 66 38 66 36 / 50 40 60 60
TIMBERON 64 37 63 34 / 40 40 50 50
WINSTON 68 39 69 32 / 50 40 20 10
HILLSBORO 74 46 75 42 / 40 40 20 10
SPACEPORT 76 48 78 43 / 30 30 20 20
LAKE ROBERTS 71 42 71 34 / 60 40 10 10
HURLEY 74 43 74 37 / 40 30 0 0
CLIFF 79 43 77 37 / 30 20 0 0
MULE CREEK 74 44 72 37 / 20 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 73 47 73 42 / 40 40 10 0
ANIMAS 81 45 77 42 / 20 10 0 0
HACHITA 79 45 78 42 / 20 20 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 81 46 77 43 / 20 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 76 46 70 42 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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