517
FXUS64 KEPZ 031857
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1257 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT THU MAY 3 2025
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
- SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH SOME BLOWING DUST AND ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST LOWLANDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A SLOW, EASTWARD MOVING REX BLOCK COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THIS MORNING, AND IT'S SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UL TROUGHS.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE PUSHED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THIS MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH
THE WEAK UL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REX BLOCK TO GIVE US
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR OUR MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE LOWLANDS, A CONVERGENCE LINE/ PRESSURE TROUGH/ WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHICH MAY SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS. THE HRRR IS NOT OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC FOR
LOWLAND STORM CHANCES, BUT THE NAM NEST IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE.
THE HREF SHOWS A MODEST TO MODERATE SIGNAL (20-30% CHANCE) FOR
STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, GUSTY WINDS, BLOWING DUST,
AND SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 40-50 KNOTS, BUT CAPE LOOKS LACKING
WITH NBM ONLY SHOWING LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF EXCEEDING 500
J/KG. IF HIGHER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, A STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT SHOULD STORMS FORM,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE INVERTED V SOUNDING.
THE TINY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REX BLOCK WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY
SATURDAY EVENING AS IT'S ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN CA IN THE MORNING BEFORE PUSHING INTO AZ BY EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE H500 JET TO NUDGE INTO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE STATE
TO FOSTER BREEZY CONDITIONS. LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE NBM,
HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS BY A FEW KNOTS. NEVERTHELESS, LOW-END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING DUST REMAIN CONCERNS.
THE LOW WILL ALSO PUSH MOISTURE EAST, ERODING IT FROM MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
RETAIN MOISTURE WITH DECENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%). JUST
LIKE SATURDAY, ANY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL YIELD A MODEST
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
THE TROUGH IS NOT GOING TO BE IN A HURRY TO LEAVE. SUNDAY'S LOW.
THE LOW WILL EXPAND, PUSHING THE MAIN JET SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH A BREEZY AFTERNOON. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE DRY LINE WILL KEEP A MODEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR EASTERN AREAS ON
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THOUGH, THE LOW WILL HAVE EXPANDED ENOUGH SOUTH
TO COMPLETELY PUSH THE JET STREAM WELL INTO MEXICO. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BENEATH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LACK OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE LIGHTER GIVEN THE LACK OF JET OVERHEAD. WE RINSE AND
REPEAT FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOBE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE MAIN LOW SHIFTS TOWARD KS. WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
CONTINUING TO FAVOR MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS.
FINALLY BY THURSDAY, THE UL BEGINS TO EXIT WHILE RIDGING BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EAST IN ITS WAKE. THE EURO KEEPS LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES FOR EASTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN ACROSS THE PLAINS, TURNING WINDS FROM THE
EAST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE, BRINGING BACK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE
PICTURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BENEATH THE UL RIDGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THEY'RE ALREADY STARTING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND GILA REGION, BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE LOWLANDS AFTER 21-22Z AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL, BUT SHEAR IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED. WITH WIDE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS, HIGHLY LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL THE MAIN
THREAT, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS SPREADING OUT OVER A WIDER AREA
HEADING INTO THE EVENING, LOFTING PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
FOR THE TAF SITES, WENT WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT ELP WITH
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS AND 3SM WITH BLOWING DUST.
PROBABILITIES FOR IFR VISBY OR STRONGER WINDS ARE NON-ZERO, BUT
CLOSER TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT LRU AND TCS THIS EVENING, WITH
DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT DMN.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER DARK, BUT THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS ELP AFTER 04Z. PROBABILITIES ARE STILL
FAIRLY LOW, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS IF
NEEDED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AREA WIDE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH
GOOD RECOVERIES FORECAST TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE WILL RETREAT SOME
TO THE EAST WITH DRY AIR RETURNING TO MAINLY THE HIDALGO COUNTY BY
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOW RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING, MAINLY FOR
THE GILA. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10
MPH.
ON SUNDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN UL LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST WITH MOST LOWLAND
LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND 10% MIN RH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A
LITTLE LIGHTER WITH WIND SPEEDS CASTING SOME DOUBT ON WHETHER NM
ZONE 111 (SOUTHWEST LOWLANDS) WILL REACH CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS
ON A WIDESPREAD LEVEL. WITH THIS DOWNWARD TREND, I ELECTED TO
DEFER UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT. PARTS OF
THE BLACK RANGE AND SOUTHERN GILA WILL ALSO FEATURE NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS.
NO CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY ONWARDS ALTHOUGH
LOWLANDS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO
MID TEENS. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, HOWEVER.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY MOUNTAINS, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AT
LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS AN UL LOW IS
SLOW TO LEAVE THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 81 58 85 55 / 30 30 20 20
SIERRA BLANCA 75 49 81 47 / 30 30 20 20
LAS CRUCES 77 50 79 45 / 30 30 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 79 45 79 47 / 30 40 50 50
CLOUDCROFT 56 36 56 32 / 50 50 70 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 76 48 77 47 / 30 30 20 30
SILVER CITY 71 45 70 37 / 30 30 20 20
DEMING 80 49 80 44 / 20 20 10 10
LORDSBURG 79 47 77 39 / 10 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 79 58 83 54 / 30 30 10 20
DELL CITY 78 52 81 47 / 30 40 40 30
FORT HANCOCK 83 54 88 50 / 30 20 20 20
LOMA LINDA 73 49 77 48 / 30 40 20 30
FABENS 81 55 86 51 / 30 30 20 20
SANTA TERESA 78 53 81 49 / 30 30 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 79 52 81 53 / 30 40 30 30
JORNADA RANGE 78 47 80 45 / 30 30 30 30
HATCH 80 46 81 46 / 30 40 20 20
COLUMBUS 81 51 82 49 / 10 10 0 10
OROGRANDE 76 53 79 47 / 30 30 40 40
MAYHILL 68 40 66 37 / 50 60 70 70
MESCALERO 66 40 66 35 / 50 50 70 70
TIMBERON 64 38 65 32 / 40 50 60 60
WINSTON 68 33 69 32 / 40 40 20 30
HILLSBORO 74 43 75 40 / 30 40 20 20
SPACEPORT 76 41 78 42 / 30 30 30 30
LAKE ROBERTS 71 34 70 27 / 30 40 20 20
HURLEY 74 44 73 37 / 20 20 10 20
CLIFF 79 44 76 37 / 20 20 20 20
MULE CREEK 74 38 71 28 / 30 10 20 20
FAYWOOD 73 47 73 40 / 30 30 10 20
ANIMAS 81 46 77 41 / 10 0 10 10
HACHITA 79 45 78 42 / 10 10 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 81 46 76 43 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 76 47 70 40 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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