326
FXUS64 KEPZ 032137
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
337 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
LOWLANDS THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING
DUST.
- THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, WHILE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
- DRIER AIR AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
ON MONDAY, ENDING THE PRECIP RISK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT HAS BEEN RATHER SUPPRESSED SO FAR. CU FIELDS
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND WEST TEXAS, BUT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING OUT INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOWLANDS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY
WHERE SIERRA BLANCA HAS HELD ONTO MID-40S DEWPOINTS AS SE FLOW
ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM THE TRANSPECOS REGION.
DESPITE THE SUBOPTIMAL CONDITIONS, A WEAK VORT LOBE LIFTING UP
FROM SOUTH OF THE BORDER SHOULD HELP GET ISOLATED, HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION INITIATED OVER THE LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS, AND FAVORING SOUTHERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR HAIL IN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
SEVERAL CAMS ALSO SUGGEST A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL UP FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 9-10 PM TONIGHT,
AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ROLL
THROUGH THE AREA.
FOR SUNDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DROPPING DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL ROLL INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. INCREASING SW
FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL FAVOR SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS SW NEW MEXICO AND SE ARIZONA. SW WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST IN THE
AREA. EAST OF THE LEE TROUGHING, SE TO SSE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS,
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER PRECIP AMOUNTS WHERE CELL
TRAINING SETS UP.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY, AS AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS IN BEHIND IT, MAINTAINING THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION ACROSS THE AREA. IT'S A RATHER
COMPLICATED SET UP, BUT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR WEST
OF THE BIG BEND ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. OVERALL
MONDAY'S WEATHER LOOKS SLIGHTLY BREEZY, BUT PRECIP-FREE.
RELATIVELY BENIGN DESPITE THE SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROLLING
THROUGH THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE BIG BEND INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY.
WITH TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE REGION, COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE, AS HIGHS RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK, WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BY FRIDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THEY'RE ALREADY STARTING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND GILA REGION, BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE LOWLANDS AFTER 21-22Z AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL, BUT SHEAR IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED. WITH WIDE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS, HIGHLY LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL THE MAIN
THREAT, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS SPREADING OUT OVER A WIDER AREA
HEADING INTO THE EVENING, LOFTING PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
FOR THE TAF SITES, WENT WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT ELP WITH
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS AND 3SM WITH BLOWING DUST.
PROBABILITIES FOR IFR VISBY OR STRONGER WINDS ARE NON-ZERO, BUT
CLOSER TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT LRU AND TCS THIS EVENING, WITH
DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT DMN.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER DARK, BUT THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS ELP AFTER 04Z. PROBABILITIES ARE STILL
FAIRLY LOW, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS IF
NEEDED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND GILA REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGHLY
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WITH THE RISK FOR DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE THE RAINFALL AREAS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SACRAMENTOS ON SUNDAY WHILE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DRY OUT THE LOWLANDS, AS A TROUGH SETS UP RIGHT
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN NEW MEXICO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SW NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY, WHERE THE
DECISION TO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING WAS INFLUENCED BY HIGH ERC
VALUES AND OBSERVED FIRE SPREAD IN NEARBY ARIZONA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, BUT LIKELY BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SLOWLY IMPROVING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 81 58 85 55 / 30 30 20 20
SIERRA BLANCA 75 49 81 47 / 30 30 20 20
LAS CRUCES 77 50 79 45 / 30 30 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 79 45 79 47 / 30 40 50 50
CLOUDCROFT 56 36 56 32 / 50 50 70 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 76 48 77 47 / 30 30 20 30
SILVER CITY 71 45 70 37 / 30 30 20 20
DEMING 80 49 80 44 / 20 20 10 10
LORDSBURG 79 47 77 39 / 10 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 79 58 83 54 / 30 30 10 20
DELL CITY 78 52 81 47 / 30 40 40 30
FORT HANCOCK 83 54 88 50 / 30 20 20 20
LOMA LINDA 73 49 77 48 / 30 40 20 30
FABENS 81 55 86 51 / 30 30 20 20
SANTA TERESA 78 53 81 49 / 30 30 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 79 52 81 53 / 30 40 30 30
JORNADA RANGE 78 47 80 45 / 30 30 30 30
HATCH 80 46 81 46 / 30 40 20 20
COLUMBUS 81 51 82 49 / 10 10 0 10
OROGRANDE 76 53 79 47 / 30 30 40 40
MAYHILL 68 40 66 37 / 50 60 70 70
MESCALERO 66 40 66 35 / 50 50 70 70
TIMBERON 64 38 65 32 / 40 50 60 60
WINSTON 68 33 69 32 / 40 40 20 30
HILLSBORO 74 43 75 40 / 30 40 20 20
SPACEPORT 76 41 78 42 / 30 30 30 30
LAKE ROBERTS 71 34 70 27 / 30 40 20 20
HURLEY 74 44 73 37 / 20 20 10 20
CLIFF 79 44 76 37 / 20 20 20 20
MULE CREEK 74 38 71 28 / 30 10 20 20
FAYWOOD 73 47 73 40 / 30 30 10 20
ANIMAS 81 46 77 41 / 10 0 10 10
HACHITA 79 45 78 42 / 10 10 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 81 46 76 43 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 76 47 70 40 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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