158
FNUS74 KEPZ 032239
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR LADRON...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
439 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1700 MDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50 PERCENT CHANCE)
IN DIRECT IMPACT TO THE INCIDENT. IF STORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE INCIDENT
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN VICINITY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
GENERALLY TERRAIN/DRAINAGE INFLUENCED. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN THE 55 TO 65
PERCENT RANGE WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES. ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING, BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 12-17 PERCENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT THROUGH SUNSET.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 6-11 MPH
THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WITHIN SHELTERED CANYONS AND DRAINAGES
WILL BE MORE TERRAIN/DRAINAGE INFLUENCED THROUGH THE EVENING. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FIRE, WINDS COULD BECOME
GUSTY AND ERRATIC.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL THROUGH SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (122400 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 5 PM
SKY (%).........50
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR
TSTM COV........SCTTRD
CHC OF PCPN (%).50
TEMP............64
RH..............26
20 FT WIND......S 8
20 FT WIND GUST.15-20
MIX HGT (FT)....8200
TRANSPORT WIND..S 17
VRATE KT-FT/1K..122
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT, BECOMING 20-30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........58-65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DROPPING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL AFTER SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND 10 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (126400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(3100 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........57 57 44 24 24 37
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD CHANCE S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD S CHC NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 30 40 20 20
TEMP............61 57 55 52 50 48
RH..............29 37 40 46 56 60
20 FT WIND......S 8 S 7 NW 3 N 4 N 4 NE 0
20 FT WIND GUST.16 14 8 10 10 2
MIX HGT (FT)....7900 7900 300 300 300 300
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 13 SE 13 E 10 E 10 SE 10 SE 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..126 126 3 3 3 3
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20-30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 22
TO 31 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (25700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
(360300 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........48 48 11 8 8 39
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20
TEMP............46 49 55 61 63 63
RH..............63 56 37 20 15 14
20 FT WIND......NE 2 NE 4 SE 9 SSW 16 SW 16 SW 17
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 21 31 31 33
MIX HGT (FT)....2600 2600 9200 9200 11700 11700
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 9 SE 9 S 22 S 22 S 31 S 31
VRATE KT-FT/1K..26 26 211 211 360 360
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR EXNT EXNT EXNT EXNT
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.
TUESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
FORECASTER...ROGERS
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY DISPATCH CENTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2512794.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/03/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV
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