360
FXUS64 KEPZ 040520
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1120 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
LOWLANDS THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING
DUST.
- THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, WHILE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
- DRIER AIR AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
ON MONDAY, ENDING THE PRECIP RISK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT HAS BEEN RATHER SUPPRESSED SO FAR. CU FIELDS
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND WEST TEXAS, BUT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING OUT INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOWLANDS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY
WHERE SIERRA BLANCA HAS HELD ONTO MID-40S DEWPOINTS AS SE FLOW
ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM THE TRANSPECOS REGION.
DESPITE THE SUBOPTIMAL CONDITIONS, A WEAK VORT LOBE LIFTING UP
FROM SOUTH OF THE BORDER SHOULD HELP GET ISOLATED, HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION INITIATED OVER THE LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS, AND FAVORING SOUTHERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR HAIL IN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
SEVERAL CAMS ALSO SUGGEST A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL UP FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 9-10 PM TONIGHT,
AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ROLL
THROUGH THE AREA.
FOR SUNDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DROPPING DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL ROLL INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. INCREASING SW
FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL FAVOR SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS SW NEW MEXICO AND SE ARIZONA. SW WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST IN THE
AREA. EAST OF THE LEE TROUGHING, SE TO SSE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS,
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER PRECIP AMOUNTS WHERE CELL
TRAINING SETS UP.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY, AS AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS IN BEHIND IT, MAINTAINING THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION ACROSS THE AREA. IT'S A RATHER
COMPLICATED SET UP, BUT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR WEST
OF THE BIG BEND ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. OVERALL
MONDAY'S WEATHER LOOKS SLIGHTLY BREEZY, BUT PRECIP-FREE.
RELATIVELY BENIGN DESPITE THE SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROLLING
THROUGH THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE BIG BEND INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY.
WITH TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE REGION, COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE, AS HIGHS RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK, WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BY FRIDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES FEW-SCT
10-15 KFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING FEW-SCT AT 20-25 KFT
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AT
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS. WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
RGV WILL RANGE FROM 180-220 IN DIRECTION AND 180-150 FOR AREAS TO
THE EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND GILA REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGHLY
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WITH THE RISK FOR DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE THE RAINFALL AREAS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SACRAMENTOS ON SUNDAY WHILE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DRY OUT THE LOWLANDS, AS A TROUGH SETS UP RIGHT
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN NEW MEXICO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SW NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY, WHERE THE
DECISION TO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING WAS INFLUENCED BY HIGH ERC
VALUES AND OBSERVED FIRE SPREAD IN NEARBY ARIZONA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, BUT LIKELY BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SLOWLY IMPROVING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 85 55 77 / 30 20 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 49 81 47 77 / 30 20 20 0
LAS CRUCES 50 79 45 71 / 30 10 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 45 79 47 72 / 40 50 50 10
CLOUDCROFT 36 56 32 50 / 50 70 70 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 77 47 69 / 30 20 30 20
SILVER CITY 45 70 37 61 / 30 20 20 20
DEMING 49 80 44 72 / 20 10 10 20
LORDSBURG 47 77 39 68 / 0 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 83 54 74 / 30 10 20 10
DELL CITY 52 81 47 78 / 40 40 30 0
FORT HANCOCK 54 88 50 82 / 20 20 20 0
LOMA LINDA 49 77 48 69 / 40 20 30 0
FABENS 55 86 51 79 / 30 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 53 81 49 72 / 30 10 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 81 53 72 / 40 30 30 10
JORNADA RANGE 47 80 45 71 / 30 30 30 20
HATCH 46 81 46 72 / 40 20 20 20
COLUMBUS 51 82 49 73 / 10 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 53 79 47 72 / 30 40 40 10
MAYHILL 40 66 37 63 / 60 70 70 20
MESCALERO 40 66 35 60 / 50 70 70 20
TIMBERON 38 65 32 59 / 50 60 60 10
WINSTON 33 69 32 61 / 40 20 30 20
HILLSBORO 43 75 40 67 / 40 20 20 20
SPACEPORT 41 78 42 69 / 30 30 30 20
LAKE ROBERTS 34 70 27 61 / 40 20 20 30
HURLEY 44 73 37 64 / 20 10 20 20
CLIFF 44 76 37 68 / 20 20 20 20
MULE CREEK 38 71 28 63 / 10 20 20 20
FAYWOOD 47 73 40 64 / 30 10 20 20
ANIMAS 46 77 41 69 / 0 10 10 10
HACHITA 45 78 42 69 / 10 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 76 43 69 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 47 70 40 62 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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