963
FXUS64 KEPZ 041755
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1155 AM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, WHILE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
- LOW PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE OFF AND ON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
UL LOW OVER CA WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA THANKS TO AN OMEGA
BLOCK COVERING THE ENTIRE CONUS. FOR TODAY, DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE H500 JET NOSING
INTO SW NM. WEST OF THIS EFFECTIVE DRY LINE, WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND BLOWING DUST. I'M NOT CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW A MILE, SO
I'LL HOLD ON ANY DUST HEADLINES. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY, MOISTURE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
AND EURO SHOWING AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF
SHEAR. THE NAM SHOWS WELL OVER 1000 J/KG, BUT IT IS OFTEN TOO
BULLISH WITH MOISTURE. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE CONCERN. TIMING LOOKS TO BE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE GILA BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER.
BY MONDAY THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS AZ. MUCH OF ITS
MOISTURE WILL BE HELD JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH LOW TO MODERATE
CHANCES (15 TO 30%) GRAZING SIERRA COUNTY AND OUR MOUNTAINS. A
SMALL TROUGH/VORT MAX WILL SWING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA AND SONORA BEFORE ABSORBING INTO THE PARENT LOW LATE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY, CROSSING SOUTHERN NM. GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED
QPF RELATED TO THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS, EURO, AND NAM NEST
DEVELOPING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. WE RETURN TO THE DRY SLOT BY
TUESDAY MORNING ONCE THIS FEATURE COMPLETELY GETS ABSORBED INTO
THE PARENT LOW. WITH US REMAINING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW,
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL FEATURE PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY
IN THE FORM OF A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ON ITS BACK
SIDE. THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL NM WHILE WEAKENING
KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE PICTURE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. FINALLY BY THURSDAY RIDGING WILL TAKE THE LOW'S PLACE.
BENEATH THE UL RIDGE, SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING OR NIGHT ALLOWING A SLOW INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY LATE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THAT FORECAST IS QUICKER IN THE
GFS AS A WEAK LOW CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
HANGS AROUND. WE WARM BACK UP NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. FEW-
SCT HIGH-BASED CU IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OR EAST OF ELP.
SSW TO SW WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE AT TCS, DMN,
AND LRU. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT DMN WHERE
THE WIND TRAJECTORY IS MOST FAVORABLE FOR NEARBY DUST SOURCES.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MEXICAN DUST SOURCE REGIONS, WHICH
COULD DRIFT TOWARDS LRU.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
DRY AIR WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO SINGLE-DIGIT MIN RH VALUES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. THE JET STREAM WILL NOSE OVER THE BOOTHEEL,
BRINGING UP WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DESERT LOWLANDS, BLACK
RANGE, AND PORTIONS OF SIERRA COUNTY. 20-FOOT WINDS LOOK TO TOP
OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINING WITH THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NM ZONE 111. THIS
WILL BE THE END OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR AREAS REMAINING WITHIN THE MOISTURE, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY LINGER FOR A SHOWER OR WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE GILA AS WELL.
THE UL LOW WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SOME MODEST GAINS IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER MIN RH VALUES ON
MONDAY WITH MID TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10
MPH. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY
THE MOUNTAINS WITH AN UPTICK LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOR
THE LOWLANDS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE STICKS AROUND
THOUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER AIR RETURNS BY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 86 55 76 51 / 0 10 0 50
SIERRA BLANCA 81 48 77 46 / 20 10 0 40
LAS CRUCES 80 46 70 42 / 0 10 10 50
ALAMOGORDO 79 48 73 43 / 50 20 0 60
CLOUDCROFT 56 32 50 29 / 50 30 10 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 78 48 68 45 / 20 10 20 40
SILVER CITY 69 38 60 38 / 0 20 20 30
DEMING 81 45 71 43 / 0 10 20 40
LORDSBURG 76 40 67 42 / 10 10 20 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 82 55 73 51 / 0 10 10 50
DELL CITY 82 48 78 47 / 40 20 0 50
FORT HANCOCK 89 50 83 49 / 10 10 0 40
LOMA LINDA 76 49 70 45 / 20 10 0 50
FABENS 86 52 78 49 / 10 0 0 40
SANTA TERESA 81 50 72 46 / 0 10 10 50
WHITE SANDS HQ 81 54 73 50 / 10 10 10 60
JORNADA RANGE 79 46 71 42 / 10 10 10 50
HATCH 82 48 73 44 / 10 10 20 50
COLUMBUS 82 50 73 47 / 0 0 10 40
OROGRANDE 79 48 72 45 / 20 10 0 60
MAYHILL 65 37 63 34 / 80 40 0 70
MESCALERO 66 37 61 32 / 50 30 10 70
TIMBERON 64 33 60 29 / 50 20 0 60
WINSTON 69 32 60 32 / 10 10 20 40
HILLSBORO 76 42 66 40 / 10 10 20 40
SPACEPORT 78 44 69 40 / 20 10 10 50
LAKE ROBERTS 71 29 60 28 / 10 20 30 30
HURLEY 73 37 63 37 / 10 10 20 30
CLIFF 76 37 67 37 / 20 30 20 20
MULE CREEK 71 33 63 31 / 20 30 20 20
FAYWOOD 73 42 64 40 / 10 10 20 40
ANIMAS 76 43 69 42 / 10 0 20 20
HACHITA 77 43 69 42 / 0 0 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 76 44 69 42 / 0 0 10 20
CLOVERDALE 69 42 63 40 / 0 0 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST
DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...34
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