887
FXUS64 KEPZ 050014
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
614 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SIERRA, OTERO, AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES, WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN OTERO COUNTY, WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL.
- DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED MONDAY, POSSIBLY WORKING INTO THE
LOWLANDS, BUT WITH A DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM RISK.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SURFACE OBS SHOW 40S DEWPOINTS STRETCH ACROSS HUDSPETH COUNTY INTO
EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY, AND ON UP INTO THE TULAROSA BASIN, WITH
LOW-50S SNEAKING THEIR WAY UP THROUGH THE SALT FLAT/DELL CITY
BASIN INTO PARTS OF SE OTERO COUNTY. BUT 30S DEWPOINTS ARE
STARTING TO MIX DOWN OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TULAROSA BASIN,
JUST EAST OF THE SAN ANDRES RANGE.
RADAR SHOWS A THIN LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF HUECO TANKS TO
OROGRANDE, AND BARELY NOTICEABLE JUST WEST OF WHITE SANDS NATIONAL
PARK, AND MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE EDGE OF 40S DEWPOINTS.
SPOTTY DEEPER CONVECTION IS JUST NOW STARTING TO POP UP JUST
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, AND NEAR THE WEST EDGE OF THE OTERO MESA.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO RAMP UP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OTERO MESA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WITH
ADDITIONAL, SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEVELOPMENT ALIGNED WITH SOME OF THE
TERRAIN IN HUDSPETH COUNTY. THE STORMS WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST
AFTER HEADING EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND WELL OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC IS A MESS OF BLOCKING PATTERNS, WITH SEVERAL LONGWAVE
TROUGHS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. WE'RE IN SORT OF
AN OMEGA BLOCK, BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG.
IT'S THE REX BLOCK OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT'S MOSTLY PLUGGING THINGS
UP. AS A RESULT, THE UPPER LOW/LONGWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING US WON'T
BE ENTIRELY OUT OF OUR HAIR UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. LUCKILY, THE
WEATHER BEYOND TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN, WITH THE MOST
NOTICEABLE SENSIBLE FEATURE BEING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STRETCHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GETTING INTO THE DETAILS A BIT...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO GENERALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA, BUT WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW PERSISTS, AND ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ROLL THROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA TOMORROW MORNING, NUDGED ALONG BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING TO ITS SOUTH AND WEST. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GILA, WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS EVEN
INTO THE LOWLANDS THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGS AROUND THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW, THERE WILL BE GOOD
FORCING FOR LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. NBM POPS
APPEARED TO BE RUNNING TOO HIGH, AND EVEN THE WHITTLED-DOWN 30
POPS SEEM A BIT HOPEFUL FOR ELP. QPF AMOUNTS ARE ALL UNDER 0.05
INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS, HOWEVER.
NBM WAS ALSO TRYING TO SNEAK SNOW INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
WHICH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE 7500 FEET AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
FILTERS IN SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW, BUT ANY SNOW IS NOT LIKELY TO
ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING, AND PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL HANG OUT OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROLLING AROUND IN ITS
ORBIT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE
FURTHER NORTH OF I-10 (IN NEW MEXICO) YOU GO, THE BETTER THE
CHANCES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY, WITH RIDGING DRIFTING IN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL BRING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING ANY HIGHER. THIS RIDGE IS FAIRLY WEAK, AND MAY GET
UNDERCUT BY A WEAK, UPPER LOW AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, AND
THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR
SW NEW MEXICO.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION, BUT WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND OUT WEST NEAR THE GILA WILDERNESS THAT ARE CREATING
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE KICKING UP SOME DUST SO
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP OFF FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE RANGE OF 3 TO 5
MILES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL
BE KELP. THE VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE AND THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT OUR WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
WEST AND THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. OUR CEILINGS
FOR OUR TAFS SIDES ARE GENERALLY UNLIMITED, BUT MID CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME OFF AND ON
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS, BUT CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE UNLIMITED MOST
OF THE TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
DRIER SW WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE LOWLANDS OF
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH SOME GUSTS 35 TO
45 MPH. FURTHER EAST, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SIERRA, OTERO, AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES AND MOVE NORTHWARDS, WITH GUSTY WINDS, LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS, BUT STILL THE RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, POSSIBLY WORKING INTO
THE LOWLANDS, BUT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS EXPECTED
IN THE SACRAMENTOS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH MID-WEEK EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE, AND SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. AN EASTERLY PUSH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 76 50 74 / 10 30 40 10
SIERRA BLANCA 50 77 45 70 / 10 20 30 10
LAS CRUCES 47 70 41 69 / 10 30 40 30
ALAMOGORDO 49 73 43 68 / 20 30 50 40
CLOUDCROFT 36 50 33 45 / 50 40 60 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 68 44 69 / 10 30 30 60
SILVER CITY 41 60 40 59 / 20 30 20 50
DEMING 46 71 42 71 / 10 30 20 30
LORDSBURG 41 67 41 66 / 10 30 20 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 73 51 71 / 0 30 40 20
DELL CITY 48 78 46 73 / 30 20 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 51 83 48 78 / 10 10 20 10
LOMA LINDA 49 70 45 65 / 10 20 30 10
FABENS 52 78 48 75 / 0 20 30 10
SANTA TERESA 50 72 45 70 / 0 30 40 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 73 50 70 / 10 30 40 40
JORNADA RANGE 46 71 41 69 / 10 30 40 50
HATCH 48 73 43 72 / 10 40 40 50
COLUMBUS 50 73 46 72 / 0 20 20 20
OROGRANDE 49 72 44 69 / 10 30 40 30
MAYHILL 40 63 37 58 / 60 40 50 50
MESCALERO 40 61 34 55 / 40 40 50 60
TIMBERON 36 60 32 55 / 30 40 50 40
WINSTON 36 60 33 60 / 10 40 30 70
HILLSBORO 46 66 40 67 / 10 30 30 50
SPACEPORT 44 69 39 69 / 10 30 30 50
LAKE ROBERTS 34 60 29 60 / 20 40 20 60
HURLEY 40 63 39 63 / 20 40 20 40
CLIFF 41 67 39 65 / 30 30 20 50
MULE CREEK 36 63 32 60 / 30 30 10 50
FAYWOOD 46 64 41 62 / 20 50 20 40
ANIMAS 43 69 41 68 / 10 30 10 20
HACHITA 44 69 41 68 / 10 30 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 69 41 71 / 0 30 10 10
CLOVERDALE 42 63 39 64 / 10 30 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST
DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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