438
FNUS74 KEPZ 051528
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR IRON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
928 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0900 MDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE
IN AND AROUND THE FIRE PERIMETER TODAY. CREWS CAN EXPECT AROUND A
10 TO 15 PERCENT BUMP TO MINIMUM RH THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, ALLOWING FOR VALUES TO POP ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED,
HOWEVER, DUE TO BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS WILL REACH
THEIR PEAK BETWEEN 1200 AND 1500 MDT, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH.
CONTINUED INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW-END UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE FIRE, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. THE LIKELIHOOD OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION IS ON THE LOW SIDE AND THE SLIGHT INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF DRY LIGHTNING NEAR THE INCIDENT. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT WITH LOW-END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING TUESDAY. WARMER, DRIER, AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME STORMS COULD BE
DRIER IN NATURE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 27 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (60400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (133400 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (160500
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........54 58 52
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 40 40
TEMP............35 43 46
RH..............95 45 37
20 FT WIND......S 11G24 SW 14G26 SW 12G24
MIX HGT (FT)....2600 5400 7600
TRANSPORT WIND..S 26 SW 27 SW 25
VRATE KT-FT/1K..60 133 161
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD VYGD EXNT
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 3 AM.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (120900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(11500 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........47 46 50 66
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 10 20 30
TEMP............44 36 33 30
RH..............34 45 54 65
20 FT WIND......SW 9G20 W 5G9 W 2G5 W 2G5
MIX HGT (FT)....6700 6700 1200 1500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 17 SW 17 W 13 W 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..121 121 14 12
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 7 TO 11 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (26000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (59200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........76 74 70 62
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 60 60
TEMP............29 37 44 48
RH..............78 61 44 44
20 FT WIND......W 3G8 W 7G14 W 9G20 W 11G21
MIX HGT (FT)....1700 1700 2800 3200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 14 W 14 W 20 W 22
VRATE KT-FT/1K..26 26 53 59
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR FAIR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT
WINDS.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
FORECASTER...BREITREITER-IMET
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2512872.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/05/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV
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