501
FXUS64 KEPZ 051736
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1136 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY;
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
- JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR
ALL AREAS.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
LARGE OMEGA HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. UPSTREAM
ANCHOR LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AS OMEGA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. THIS SLOW LIFTING OUT OF THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODEST LARGE SCALE LIFTING BOTH TODAY
AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
ABOUT 20 DEG MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR EAST. DESPITE THIS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. THUS
WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN BOTH DAYS; AS USUAL
FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS A BIT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TODAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL APPROACH 40 DEG, THUS CAN'T RULE OUT A DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. POPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON TUESDAY AS
DEWPOINTS INCREASE SOME. ALSO, CAN'T FORGET, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TO AROUND 7500-8000 FT TONIGHT SO A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
THOSE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ANCHOR LOW LIFTS OUT OF AREA AS OMEGA
PATTERN HAS COMPLETELY BROKEN DOWN. HOWEVER ALL THREE OF
GFS/NAM12/ECMWF SHOWING SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOVING DOWN OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. LOW THEN LIFTS OUT
NORTHEAST OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUS, WILL
HAVE TO KEEP LOWER POPS IN BOTH DAYS, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY CONTINUING. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOES
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WITH VERY
LITTLE/NO COOL ADVECTION.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...STRONGER EAST SURGE DOES PUSH MORE MOISTURE
(LIKELY WITH DRY-LINE) INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
DEWPOINTS RISE BACK UP INTO THE 40S AND PWS CLIMB BACK TO AROUND
.60-.80 INCHES. INSTABILITY WILL INCH BACK UP, BUT LARGER SCALE
LIFT LOOKS TO BE ABSENT AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. STILL,
LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AREA
WIDE. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES LEADING INTO THIS PERIOD WILL
WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE
LOWLANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER SW NEW MEXICO. BUT WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 35 TO 45 DEGREES, GUSTIER WINDS (UP TO 40 KNOTS)
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY END BY SUNSET IN SW NEW MEXICO, BUT
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT ELP, ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
FIRE CONDITIONS MOSTLY REMAINING ELEVATED DUE TO LOW FUEL MOISTURE
AND BREEZY AFTERNOON. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST MOST OF
THIS PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE
WEEKEND. SOMEWHAT LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TODAY COULD LEAD TO
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. AND OF COURSE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO LIKELY NEAR STORMS. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT BACK TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL ALSO INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HENCE, THE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 13-18% TODAY INCREASING TO 20-30% TUESDAY, THEN
13-20% WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOUNTAINS 20-30% TODAY INCREASING
TO 30-40% TUESDAY, THEN 18-25% GILA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY; AND
30-45% SACRAMENTO MTNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VENT RATES VERY
GOOD-EXCELLENT ALL DAYS EXCEPT THURSDAY WHICH IS FAIR-GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 52 74 52 / 20 30 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 78 46 70 46 / 10 20 10 0
LAS CRUCES 70 43 70 43 / 20 30 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 74 43 68 43 / 30 50 30 10
CLOUDCROFT 52 34 46 30 / 50 70 50 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 45 69 46 / 30 20 50 10
SILVER CITY 59 40 58 38 / 50 20 40 10
DEMING 71 44 71 43 / 10 10 30 0
LORDSBURG 66 41 66 40 / 30 20 30 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 51 71 52 / 20 30 20 0
DELL CITY 80 47 73 45 / 10 20 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 84 49 78 48 / 10 20 10 0
LOMA LINDA 71 45 64 46 / 10 30 20 0
FABENS 79 50 75 49 / 10 20 10 0
SANTA TERESA 71 47 71 47 / 20 30 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 50 70 51 / 30 40 30 10
JORNADA RANGE 71 42 69 39 / 20 30 40 10
HATCH 72 43 72 42 / 20 20 40 10
COLUMBUS 73 48 72 48 / 10 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 72 44 69 42 / 20 40 30 10
MAYHILL 64 37 58 35 / 20 50 50 10
MESCALERO 63 38 55 33 / 50 70 50 10
TIMBERON 61 35 55 31 / 30 40 30 10
WINSTON 60 33 59 32 / 40 20 60 20
HILLSBORO 66 41 66 40 / 30 20 50 10
SPACEPORT 69 39 69 38 / 20 20 50 10
LAKE ROBERTS 59 35 59 34 / 70 20 60 10
HURLEY 64 39 62 38 / 50 20 40 0
CLIFF 66 40 65 37 / 60 30 40 0
MULE CREEK 61 39 59 35 / 60 30 50 0
FAYWOOD 63 41 61 40 / 50 20 40 10
ANIMAS 68 42 68 41 / 10 10 20 0
HACHITA 68 42 68 41 / 10 10 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 42 71 42 / 10 0 10 0
CLOVERDALE 61 41 63 43 / 10 20 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17
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