589
FXUS64 KEPZ 060525
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1125 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW
NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE THIS EVENING,
WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE LOWLANDS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE NEW
MEXICO I-10 CORRIDOR.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT STEADY EAST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
OUR PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA,
AND IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW NEW MEXICO, ESPECIALLY THE GILA REGION.
BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT, RANGING FROM 0.05 TO 0.15
INCHES EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE, DEEPER
CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRIGGERED IN THE PLAINS EAST OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WHERE A RIBBON OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS POOLED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR VORT LOBE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE
SOUTH END OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING NORTHEAST FROM SONORA INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO
DEEPEN JUST EAST OF THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY WEST WINDS GOING
AFTER DARK, WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THE BAND
OF SHOWERS OVER SW NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET,
BUT A NEW AREA OF SHOWERS (AND LIKELY PLENTY OF VIRGA) IS EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EVEN IN LAS CRUCES AND EL PASO THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE WORKING AGAINST SOME HEFTY DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS (40 TO 50
DEGREES), SO ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN VIRGA COULD HELP ENHANCE GUSTY
WINDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WITH THE ODD GUST OF 40-45 MPH POSSIBLE.
WITH THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING, FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP. SOME
HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS, ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA, COULD SEE SOME SNOW,
AND A BRIEF RAIN-SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AS LOW AS CLOUDCROFT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE MOVING OUT OF
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW, SO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THANKS TO A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICAN AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC, THIS UPPER
LOW WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART. IT WILL SPEND THE WHOLE DAY IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TOMORROW, WITH ADDITIONAL SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROLLING THROUGH OUR AREA. WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN
THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. WEST WINDS WILL FAVOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS, WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
PERHAPS GRAZING THE LOWLANDS ALONG I-10 AT TIMES.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-10, AND
MAINLY FAVORING THE GILA REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
CONSIDERABLY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS, AND
MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY RUNNING ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL BRING STEADY EASTERLY
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, PUSHING EVEN PAST THE AZ STATE LINE.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
TRY TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY, POSSIBLY HELPING TO SPARK
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SW NEW MEXICO ON
SATURDAY.
IN TERMS OF WIND...WE'RE LOOKING PRETTY GOOD. THE EASTERLY PUSH ON
FRIDAY COMES ON GRADUALLY, WITHOUT ANY REAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
TO SPEAK OF. THIS BEING THE CASE, THE WEST SLOPES MAY GET JUST A
LITTLE BREEZY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PASSING SHOWERS STILL STREAMING FROM S TO N ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT ONLY KELP HAS ANY REMAINING SHOT FOR
OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND THAT SHOULD WAIN QUICKLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, AS THEY AREA OF -SHRA SHIFTS EAST OF ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT A
WIDE RANGE OF SKY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SKC TO SCT MID/LOW
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS, ESP. KDMN, WITH CLEARING/IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS FOR KTCS AND KLRU BTWN 06-09Z. WINDS ARE ON A CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND, WITH OVERNIGHT WINDS GENERALLY WSW TO WNW IN THE 6-
12KT RANGE. FOR TOMORROW, AFT 16-18Z WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE
INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE. MORE CHANCES
FOR ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA, BUT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST, WITH KTCS AND KDMN
SEEING THE BEST CHANCES AFT 18Z THROUGH 23Z...THEN POTENTIALLY KLRU
AND KELP LATER, BUT WITH SLIM CHANCES. ANY STORMS WILL PRODUCE
ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH STRONG GUSTS, AND POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW NEW MEXICO
WILL SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR.
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OUT OF NEW MEXICO, SO
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL RETURN AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND WITH A DIMINISHED RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS, COUPLED WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL LESSEN THE FIRE WEATHER RISK THROUGH MID-
WEEK, EVEN AS GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOP TOMORROW.
LOWER HUMIDITY STARTS TO CREEP IN ON THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO CLIMB, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. STEADY EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING UP
ABOVE NORMAL, AND SOME PRECIP COULD AFFECT SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 75 52 79 / 30 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 70 46 75 / 20 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 43 70 43 75 / 30 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 43 69 43 73 / 60 20 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 34 46 30 52 / 70 40 40 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 69 46 72 / 20 30 20 50
SILVER CITY 40 57 38 67 / 20 40 20 40
DEMING 44 72 43 78 / 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 41 66 40 74 / 20 20 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 51 71 51 76 / 30 10 10 0
DELL CITY 47 73 46 78 / 30 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 49 77 48 81 / 10 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 45 66 46 71 / 30 10 10 0
FABENS 50 75 49 80 / 20 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 47 70 46 75 / 30 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 71 51 75 / 50 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 42 69 41 74 / 40 10 10 20
HATCH 43 71 42 77 / 20 20 10 30
COLUMBUS 48 72 47 78 / 10 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 44 68 44 73 / 40 10 10 10
MAYHILL 37 59 35 62 / 60 30 20 40
MESCALERO 38 57 32 62 / 70 30 30 50
TIMBERON 35 55 31 61 / 50 30 30 30
WINSTON 33 60 31 63 / 10 50 30 60
HILLSBORO 41 66 39 71 / 20 30 10 40
SPACEPORT 39 68 39 72 / 30 30 10 30
LAKE ROBERTS 30 58 26 67 / 20 40 20 60
HURLEY 39 63 37 71 / 20 30 10 30
CLIFF 40 63 36 73 / 20 40 20 40
MULE CREEK 35 57 31 69 / 30 50 20 40
FAYWOOD 41 62 39 70 / 20 30 10 30
ANIMAS 42 68 41 75 / 20 10 10 10
HACHITA 42 68 41 74 / 10 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 42 69 42 76 / 10 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 41 63 41 71 / 20 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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