048
FXUS64 KEPZ 062329 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS.
- A BACKDOOR FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
SHIFT WINDS EAST AND CREATE SOME 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTS.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WARMING
UP ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, BRINGING IN A STREAM OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GILA AND EAST OVER TO THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED ALONG
THE PEAKS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE, CREATING SOME GUSTY WESTERLIES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
HAS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT COOLER AND WINDS A LITTLE BIT LIGHTER
SO FAR, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 30 KTS. AS THE LOW EXITS THE
REGION TONIGHT, SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT HEADING INTO
TOMORROW.
A SECONDARY WEAKER LOW WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE SONORAN DESERT
AND THEN OPENING UP AS IT ENTERS THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE GILA AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE MEAGER, SO THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS LOW, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH FOR PARTS OF THE GILA. OVERNIGHT A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO, SHIFTING WINDS EAST-NORTHEAST. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS AS IT SQUEAKS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOUR ON THURSDAY. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN PARTS OF WEST TEXAS WHERE
THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR RAIN
CHANCES IN EL PASO COUNTY. HOWEVER, IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WERE TO
ADVECT INTO FAR EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY, THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST RAIN CHANCES ARE AROUND 25% ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST BORDER WITH CULBERSON COUNTY.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE PRETTY UNEVENTFUL AS RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SOME BREEZINESS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO, INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE GILA. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
WINDIER AS AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND INCREASE WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL STEADILY BE CLIMBING BACK INTO MID 80S
AND LOW 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SHOWERS PERSIST MAINLY OVER GRANT, SIERRA, AND OTERO COUNTIES THIS
HOUR AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY
BETWEEN KTCS AND KLRU IS PUSHING DOWN A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THAT
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TO KLRU B/W 01Z TO 02Z, AND TO KELP BY
~04Z. CONDITIONS CALM OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
WILL FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GILA NF AND COULD PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS REACHING KTCS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS A
COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN SOME MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN AREAS WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY BE CLIMBING HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS ENE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, CREATING 15 TO 20 KT GUSTS. STRONGER
ESE FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE BORDERLAND HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT FOR WESTERN
AREAS NEAR THE NM BOOTHEEL.
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WIND GUSTS. THIS WILL CREATE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN AREAS, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE GILA REGION WHERE THERE IS ALREADY THE ONGOING IRON FIRE.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 78 56 82 / 10 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 45 75 50 76 / 0 0 10 20
LAS CRUCES 43 73 47 77 / 10 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 42 73 45 78 / 30 20 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 30 52 30 54 / 20 40 10 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 70 48 76 / 20 40 20 10
SILVER CITY 39 68 43 73 / 20 30 10 10
DEMING 43 76 48 80 / 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 40 75 46 80 / 10 20 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 77 56 79 / 10 0 10 10
DELL CITY 45 77 48 79 / 0 10 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 48 82 53 84 / 0 0 10 20
LOMA LINDA 46 70 51 73 / 10 0 10 10
FABENS 48 80 54 82 / 10 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 45 75 51 78 / 10 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 75 54 79 / 20 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 40 74 43 79 / 20 20 10 10
HATCH 41 77 45 81 / 20 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 47 78 51 81 / 10 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 44 73 48 77 / 20 10 10 20
MAYHILL 34 61 34 64 / 20 30 10 30
MESCALERO 32 62 35 66 / 30 40 10 30
TIMBERON 31 61 33 63 / 20 20 10 20
WINSTON 31 63 33 69 / 20 50 30 20
HILLSBORO 40 71 43 76 / 20 30 20 10
SPACEPORT 40 73 43 78 / 20 30 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 34 68 38 73 / 20 50 20 20
HURLEY 37 70 41 74 / 10 20 10 10
CLIFF 37 75 41 80 / 20 30 10 10
MULE CREEK 37 70 41 77 / 20 30 10 10
FAYWOOD 40 70 44 74 / 10 20 10 10
ANIMAS 41 76 46 82 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 40 75 46 80 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 42 76 46 80 / 0 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 42 71 47 77 / 0 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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