254
FXUS64 KEPZ 071727
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1127 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY, FOCUSED OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WARMING
UP ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST MAY RESTRICT VISIBILITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL THIS MORNING WILL SWING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL TODAY. THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT DOES SO, BUT THE MODEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GILA/BLACK RANGE AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 MPH OVER THE ADJACENT LOWLANDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE
OVERNIGHT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG THE SW NM/MX BORDER. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW/TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER EL PASO
AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WEAK DYNAMICS
COMBINED WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND POINTS
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE HUDSPETH AND PERHAPS EL PASO COUNTY. MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED FARTHER WEST WHERE DYNAMICS WOULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB, BUT MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST, ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS, MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY SUNDAY, LOW LEVELS START TO DRY OUT, AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE NEXT DAYS TO WATCH AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA, AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY RAMPS UP. WITH STRONG MIXING, EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
EACH AFTERNOON. GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 30 MPH
WHILE ON TUESDAY, GUSTS AROUND 35 OR 40 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE
WINDS MAY TREND UPWARD, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE EVENT. BLOWING DUST RESTRICTING VISIBILITY WILL BE A CONCERN
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY TO MOST TERMINALS, HOWEVER A GUSTY SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KTCS. A FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST
TOMORROW MORNING AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY HELP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN W TX. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KELP BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND AREAS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE (THIS LATTER AREA MAINLY THURSDAY). WETTING
RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY, BUT THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE FAVORED. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT
SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
EACH DAY. THIS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 18 PERCENT ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND 18 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ON THURSDAY,
MIN RH BETWEEN 13 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE, AND 20 TO 35 PERCENT ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY HIGHER OVER
THE SACRAMENTO MTNS). GOOD TO VERY GOOD VENT RATES TODAY, FAIR TO
GOOD ON THURSDAY, THEN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THEREAFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 57 80 57 / 0 10 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 76 52 75 48 / 0 10 30 10
LAS CRUCES 76 50 79 51 / 10 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 74 49 77 51 / 10 10 30 10
CLOUDCROFT 51 33 54 36 / 20 10 60 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 51 77 53 / 20 20 20 10
SILVER CITY 68 45 72 49 / 20 10 10 0
DEMING 77 49 81 52 / 10 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 75 46 81 51 / 10 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 60 79 60 / 0 10 20 10
DELL CITY 78 52 78 50 / 10 10 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 82 55 81 53 / 0 10 30 10
LOMA LINDA 71 53 73 52 / 10 10 30 10
FABENS 81 58 81 55 / 0 10 20 0
SANTA TERESA 76 54 79 54 / 0 10 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 57 78 59 / 10 10 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 75 46 78 48 / 10 10 20 10
HATCH 77 47 80 52 / 10 10 20 10
COLUMBUS 79 54 82 55 / 0 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 74 51 77 52 / 10 10 20 10
MAYHILL 63 37 63 39 / 20 10 50 10
MESCALERO 62 37 64 39 / 30 20 60 10
TIMBERON 61 36 62 38 / 20 10 40 10
WINSTON 64 35 69 39 / 40 30 20 10
HILLSBORO 72 45 75 50 / 20 20 20 0
SPACEPORT 74 43 78 49 / 20 20 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 68 39 71 44 / 30 10 20 0
HURLEY 71 43 75 46 / 10 10 10 0
CLIFF 74 37 79 42 / 20 10 10 0
MULE CREEK 70 37 77 42 / 20 20 10 0
FAYWOOD 70 47 74 50 / 10 10 10 0
ANIMAS 76 46 81 49 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 76 46 80 50 / 10 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 77 47 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 71 48 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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