856
FXUS64 KEPZ 080540 AAB
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY, FOCUSED OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST MAY RESTRICT VISIBILITY. THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION, BUT PALTRY
INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF CUMULUS THUS FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY STILL
DEVELOP IN THE GILA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE THREAT OF A STRAY
LIGHTNING STRIKE IS QUITE LOW. THE UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
LOW DESERT OF AZ WILL MAKE ITS WAY WEST TONIGHT AND ACCELERATE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NM. IT WILL PULL GULF MOISTURE WEST AS
IT DOES AND MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO PICK UP ON MORNING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN FAR WEST TX. SHOWERS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF EL PASO, HOWEVER THE CITY COULD BE
IMPACTED BY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS, CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY FOCUS OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE SALT BURN SCAR GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS (ABOVE THE 80%
PERCENTILE) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HREF 3-HOURLY MAX POPS DO SHOW A
10-20% CHANCE OF 1" OF RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WHICH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO CREATE RUNOFF CONCERNS GIVEN THE RECENT
INCREASE IN SOIL MOISTURE.
A RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE VERY LIGHT (<0.1"). PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GO AWAY ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW USHERS IN A DRIER
AIRMASS. THIS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ONLY INTENSIFY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY IN THE FAVORED AREAS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF KELP
AROUND SUNRISE MOVING EAST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
MORNING. LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS AT KELP
DUE TO VERY LOW PROBABILITIES AT THE SITE ITSELF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDDAY WITH ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS REMAINING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO DID NOT INCLUDE THEM
IN THE NM TAF SITES. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD SPREADING FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WETTING RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY, HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY, DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WINDS TREND STRONGER
MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AS HUMIDITIES FALL. SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AS A RESULT, WITH NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN VERY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT AROUND THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 81 56 82 / 20 20 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 53 71 46 74 / 10 50 10 10
LAS CRUCES 50 78 51 80 / 10 20 30 10
ALAMOGORDO 48 78 49 78 / 10 40 30 10
CLOUDCROFT 34 55 34 56 / 10 60 30 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 78 52 80 / 20 30 30 10
SILVER CITY 45 73 48 76 / 10 10 10 10
DEMING 50 82 52 83 / 10 10 20 10
LORDSBURG 45 81 53 82 / 10 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 79 58 80 / 20 20 20 10
DELL CITY 53 76 49 78 / 10 30 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 56 79 51 82 / 20 40 10 10
LOMA LINDA 54 71 51 73 / 20 30 20 10
FABENS 58 81 54 82 / 20 30 10 0
SANTA TERESA 55 78 53 79 / 20 20 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 79 57 80 / 20 30 30 10
JORNADA RANGE 46 79 49 80 / 10 30 30 10
HATCH 48 81 50 83 / 10 30 30 10
COLUMBUS 55 82 54 82 / 10 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 53 76 51 77 / 10 20 30 10
MAYHILL 38 63 38 65 / 10 40 30 30
MESCALERO 38 66 38 67 / 10 60 30 20
TIMBERON 37 63 36 63 / 10 40 30 20
WINSTON 32 69 38 72 / 30 30 30 10
HILLSBORO 45 76 47 79 / 10 20 30 10
SPACEPORT 45 78 47 80 / 20 30 30 10
LAKE ROBERTS 38 73 42 77 / 10 20 20 20
HURLEY 43 76 46 78 / 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 39 81 47 83 / 10 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 39 77 47 80 / 10 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 47 75 49 77 / 10 10 20 10
ANIMAS 45 82 50 84 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 80 50 81 / 10 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 77 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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