443
FXUS64 KEPZ 081155 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN EL PASO AND MOST OF HUDSPETH COUNTY AND MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. LOWER SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST MAY RESTRICT VISIBILITY. THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS HELPED DRAWN A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT THROUGH FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NM RESULTING IN SURFACE
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW. LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE BORDERLAND COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 0.80 INCHES
(> 90TH PERCENTILE) WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO AND MUCH OF HUDSPETH
COUNTY MID THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIER RAIN AND MORE INTENSE STORM
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF HUDSPETH COUNTY MUCH OF THE DAY,
BUT OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL REINFORCE THE EAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TEXAS COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME BLOWING
DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS. FURTHER NORTH, A
SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS OF 0.5 TO 0.6
INCHES WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDDAY SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WETTING RAINFALL
LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SOUTH FORK
AND SALT BURN SCARS IN AND AROUND RUIDOSO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
WITH THE 3 HR ENSEMBLE MAX SHOWING AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES
FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING LOOK TO REMAIN LOW (20 TO 30%). MAIN
RISK FROM STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS. THESE COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO SIERRA COUNTY DURING
THE EVENING. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNSET.
A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY AND MOVES OVER
THE DESERT SW THIS WEEKEND. PWATS REMAINING AROUND 0.5 INCHES WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER VARIETY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE
ON SATURDAY AS PWATS DROP TO UNDER 0.40 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN JUST BELOW TO AROUND AVERAGE BOTH DAYS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW WILL ONLY INTENSIFY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500 TO 700 MB WINDS
INTENSITY TO 40 TO 55 KTS COME TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM UP
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH COME TUESDAY, THIS WILL ACTIVATE DUST SOURCES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST LIKELY (I.E LORDSBURG PLAYA AND
THE EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES METROS DUE TO DUST SOURCES BEING
ACTIVATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF KELP. THESE SHOWERS WILL FURTHER DEVELOP INTO STORMS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN
DURING THE MORNING. CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS
AND GUSTY WINDS AT KELP DUE TO VERY LOW PROBABILITIES AT THE SITE
ITSELF BASED ON THE CURRENT 12Z GUIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AROUND
MIDDAY. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIOD SPREADING FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. INCLUDED PROB 30S FOR SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM
NEARBY SHOWERS AT KTCS AND KLRU THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER TAPERS OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT THURS MAY 8 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WETTING RAINFALL
IS UNLIKELY FOR MANY, WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY AND LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE DECREASES.
BREEZES PICK UP SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN. WINDS TREND
STRONGER MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS COME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING AREAWIDE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER VENTILATION RETURNS FRIDAY, BEFORE
BECOMING VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT AROUND THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 81 56 82 58 / 20 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 71 46 74 47 / 60 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 78 51 80 52 / 20 20 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 78 49 78 48 / 40 30 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 55 34 56 34 / 60 30 30 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 78 52 80 54 / 30 20 10 10
SILVER CITY 73 48 76 49 / 20 10 10 10
DEMING 82 52 83 53 / 10 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 81 53 82 55 / 10 0 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 79 58 80 59 / 30 10 10 0
DELL CITY 76 49 78 48 / 40 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 79 51 82 52 / 50 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 71 51 73 51 / 30 10 10 0
FABENS 81 54 82 55 / 40 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 78 53 79 55 / 30 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 79 57 80 58 / 30 30 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 79 49 80 50 / 30 30 10 10
HATCH 81 50 83 51 / 30 30 10 10
COLUMBUS 82 54 82 58 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 76 51 77 52 / 30 20 10 0
MAYHILL 63 38 65 38 / 60 30 30 0
MESCALERO 66 38 67 38 / 60 30 30 0
TIMBERON 63 36 63 35 / 50 30 20 0
WINSTON 69 38 72 40 / 40 20 10 10
HILLSBORO 76 47 79 48 / 30 20 10 10
SPACEPORT 78 47 80 48 / 30 30 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 73 42 77 44 / 30 10 20 10
HURLEY 76 46 78 47 / 20 10 10 0
CLIFF 81 47 83 49 / 10 10 10 0
MULE CREEK 77 47 80 49 / 10 0 10 0
FAYWOOD 75 49 77 50 / 20 10 10 10
ANIMAS 82 50 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 80 50 81 53 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 81 50 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 77 52 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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