483
FXUS64 KEPZ 081706
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1106 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN EL PASO AND MOST OF HUDSPETH COUNTY AND MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. LOWER SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST MAY RESTRICT VISIBILITY. THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS HELPED DRAWN A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT THROUGH FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NM RESULTING IN SURFACE
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW. LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE BORDERLAND COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 0.80 INCHES
(> 90TH PERCENTILE) WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO AND MUCH OF
HUDSPETH COUNTY MID THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIER RAIN AND MORE
INTENSE STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF HUDSPETH COUNTY
MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL REINFORCE THE
EAST WINDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST TEXAS COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY BRING
SOME BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS.
FURTHER NORTH, A SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
PWATS OF 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AROUND
MIDDAY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WETTING RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE SOUTH FORK AND SALT BURN SCARS IN AND AROUND RUIDOSO
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH THE 3 HR ENSEMBLE MAX SHOWING AROUND
0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING LOOK TO REMAIN
LOW (20 TO 30%). MAIN RISK FROM STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN NM WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. THESE COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO
SIERRA COUNTY DURING THE EVENING. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.
A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY AND MOVES OVER
THE DESERT SW THIS WEEKEND. PWATS REMAINING AROUND 0.5 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER VARIETY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY AS PWATS DROP TO UNDER 0.40 INCHES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
JUST BELOW TO AROUND AVERAGE BOTH DAYS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW WILL ONLY INTENSIFY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500 TO 700 MB WINDS
INTENSITY TO 40 TO 55 KTS COME TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM UP
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH COME TUESDAY, THIS WILL ACTIVATE DUST SOURCES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST LIKELY (I.E LORDSBURG PLAYA AND
THE EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES METROS DUE TO DUST SOURCES BEING
ACTIVATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
INCREASING CUMULUS COVERAGE THIS HOUR AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
BEGINS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY FEW-SCT100 SCT-BKN120 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHRA AND A FEW WEAK TS. MEDIUM CHANCE
(40-60%) FOR SHOWERS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING
KELP BETWEEN 21-00Z. PREVAILING WINDS 070-100 AT 08-12 KNOTS, BUT
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND SHOWERS COULD BRING TEMPORARY GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS. SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 05 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT THURS MAY 8 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WETTING RAINFALL
IS UNLIKELY FOR MANY, WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY AND LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE DECREASES.
BREEZES PICK UP SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN. WINDS TREND
STRONGER MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS COME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING AREAWIDE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER VENTILATION RETURNS FRIDAY, BEFORE
BECOMING VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT AROUND THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 81 57 83 59 / 20 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 70 46 75 48 / 50 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 78 51 80 52 / 20 20 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 78 49 78 49 / 40 30 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 55 35 55 34 / 60 30 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 77 52 81 54 / 30 20 10 10
SILVER CITY 73 48 76 50 / 20 10 10 10
DEMING 81 51 83 54 / 10 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 80 53 83 54 / 10 0 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 58 81 59 / 20 10 10 0
DELL CITY 76 50 78 49 / 40 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 78 51 83 53 / 50 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 70 51 73 51 / 30 10 10 0
FABENS 79 53 83 56 / 30 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 78 53 80 55 / 10 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 78 57 81 59 / 20 20 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 78 49 80 48 / 20 30 10 10
HATCH 81 50 83 54 / 30 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 81 54 83 58 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 76 51 76 52 / 30 20 10 0
MAYHILL 63 39 65 38 / 60 30 20 0
MESCALERO 66 38 67 39 / 60 30 20 0
TIMBERON 62 36 63 36 / 50 20 10 0
WINSTON 68 38 73 38 / 30 20 10 10
HILLSBORO 76 47 79 49 / 30 20 10 10
SPACEPORT 78 46 80 50 / 30 20 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 73 42 77 43 / 30 20 10 10
HURLEY 76 46 78 48 / 20 10 10 0
CLIFF 80 47 83 46 / 10 10 10 0
MULE CREEK 76 47 80 47 / 10 0 10 0
FAYWOOD 74 48 78 51 / 20 10 10 0
ANIMAS 81 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 80 49 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 80 50 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 77 52 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page