851
FXUS64 KEPZ 082003
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
203 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. ANY STORMS
THAT FORM WON'T BE SEVERE, BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. 18Z HRRR KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTION EAST OF EL PASO
BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST
AND MONITOR THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
AND QUIET.
WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
FURTHER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY,
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE EL PASO REGION. THE
GROWING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST WILL
ALL BUT SHUT DOWN FRIDAY'S RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY DESPITE MARGINAL
MOISTURE (PWS 0.5-0.6") HANGING AROUND. NO MENTION OF RAIN ANYMORE
FOR MOST ZONES, AND ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES (10-20%) OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
SAME STORY FOR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DRY WEATHER, SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL REACH THE
LOWER 80S EACH AFTERNOON, WARMING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MEANS MORE
WIND AND A WARMING TREND TAKING PLACE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO THE LOWER 90S NEXT WEEK, AND EL PASO
COULD SEE TEMPS AS HIGH AS 95 DEGREES MID-WEEK.
AT THE MOMENT, TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE WEEK,
NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA (SOUTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH) TIMED WITH
THE JET STREAK AND PASSAGE OF PACIFIC TROUGH AXIS. MODELS SEEM TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF BLOWING DUST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND I-10
CORRIDORS. HIGH FIRE DANGER IS ANOTHER CONCERN GIVEN FORECASTED
SINGLE-DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN COMBINATION WITH THE WIND. FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES EXPECTED IN FUTURE UPDATES, POSSIBLY FOR
MONDAY/WEDNESDAY BUT DEFINITELY FOR NEXT TUESDAY.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE TODAY WAS OUR LAST SHOT AT RAIN FOR SOME TIME.
GFS HAS THE REGION DRY INTO LATE MAY AND THE ECMWF ISN'T THAT MUCH
BETTER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
INCREASING CUMULUS COVERAGE THIS HOUR AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
BEGINS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY FEW-SCT100 SCT-BKN120 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHRA AND A FEW WEAK TS. MEDIUM CHANCE
(40-60%) FOR SHOWERS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING
KELP BETWEEN 21-00Z. PREVAILING WINDS 070-100 AT 08-12 KNOTS, BUT
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND SHOWERS COULD BRING TEMPORARY GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS. SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 05 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND, WITH RECENT RAINS LOWERING ERCS
CLOSER TO NORMAL, AFTERNOON RH 15-25%, AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
TRANSPORT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO VERY GOOD
VENTILATION.
OUTLOOK POINTS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NEXT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN
WILL DROP MIN RH BACK TO SINGLE DIGITS. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
EXPECTED IN FUTURE UPDATES, POSSIBLY FOR MONDAY/WEDNESDAY BUT
DEFINITELY FOR NEXT TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 83 58 83 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 74 48 75 / 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 50 80 52 79 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 78 48 80 / 30 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 35 55 33 57 / 30 20 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 81 54 79 / 20 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 76 49 75 / 10 10 0 0
DEMING 52 83 53 83 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 53 83 55 81 / 0 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 81 59 80 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 50 78 49 79 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 83 53 83 / 10 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 51 73 51 73 / 10 10 0 0
FABENS 53 83 55 82 / 10 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 80 55 79 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 80 58 80 / 20 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 81 51 80 / 30 10 0 0
HATCH 50 83 52 82 / 20 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 76 52 78 / 20 10 0 0
MAYHILL 38 65 38 67 / 30 20 0 0
MESCALERO 38 67 38 69 / 40 20 0 0
TIMBERON 37 63 36 65 / 30 10 0 0
WINSTON 38 73 40 71 / 20 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 48 79 49 78 / 20 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 46 80 49 79 / 30 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 77 44 76 / 10 10 10 10
HURLEY 45 79 47 77 / 10 10 0 0
CLIFF 47 84 49 83 / 0 10 0 10
MULE CREEK 47 80 49 79 / 0 10 0 10
FAYWOOD 49 78 50 75 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 50 83 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 50 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 78 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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