623
FXUS64 KEPZ 090526
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1126 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN EL PASO AND MOST OF HUDSPETH COUNTY AND MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. LOWER SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST MAY RESTRICT VISIBILITY. THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS HELPED DRAWN A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT THROUGH FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NM RESULTING IN SURFACE
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW. LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE BORDERLAND COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 0.80 INCHES
(> 90TH PERCENTILE) WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO AND MUCH OF
HUDSPETH COUNTY MID THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIER RAIN AND MORE
INTENSE STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF HUDSPETH COUNTY
MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL REINFORCE THE
EAST WINDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST TEXAS COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY BRING
SOME BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS.
FURTHER NORTH, A SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
PWATS OF 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AROUND
MIDDAY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WETTING RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE SOUTH FORK AND SALT BURN SCARS IN AND AROUND RUIDOSO
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH THE 3 HR ENSEMBLE MAX SHOWING AROUND
0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING LOOK TO REMAIN
LOW (20 TO 30%). MAIN RISK FROM STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN NM WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. THESE COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO
SIERRA COUNTY DURING THE EVENING. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.
A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY AND MOVES OVER
THE DESERT SW THIS WEEKEND. PWATS REMAINING AROUND 0.5 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER VARIETY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY AS PWATS DROP TO UNDER 0.40 INCHES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
JUST BELOW TO AROUND AVERAGE BOTH DAYS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW WILL ONLY INTENSIFY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500 TO 700 MB WINDS
INTENSITY TO 40 TO 55 KTS COME TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM UP
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH COME TUESDAY, THIS WILL ACTIVATE DUST SOURCES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST LIKELY (I.E LORDSBURG PLAYA AND
THE EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES METROS DUE TO DUST SOURCES BEING
ACTIVATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC TO
FEW AT 10-15 KFT THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES BECOMING FEW-SCT AT
10-15 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE NE/E. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMEFRAME, INCREASING TO 7-12 KNOTS AFTER
18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT THURS MAY 8 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WETTING RAINFALL
IS UNLIKELY FOR MANY, WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY AND LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE DECREASES.
BREEZES PICK UP SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN. WINDS TREND
STRONGER MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS COME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING AREAWIDE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER VENTILATION RETURNS FRIDAY, BEFORE
BECOMING VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT AROUND THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 86 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 50 80 52 76 / 10 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 51 84 54 81 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 51 83 52 80 / 10 10 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 36 58 37 55 / 10 10 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 83 56 81 / 10 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 47 79 49 75 / 10 10 10 20
DEMING 52 87 55 83 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 51 86 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 84 62 81 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 49 82 51 80 / 10 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 53 88 57 85 / 10 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 52 79 53 74 / 10 0 0 10
FABENS 55 86 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 53 84 57 81 / 0 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 85 62 81 / 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 49 84 53 81 / 10 10 0 20
HATCH 50 87 54 83 / 10 10 0 20
COLUMBUS 55 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 51 82 55 78 / 10 10 0 10
MAYHILL 38 69 40 66 / 10 10 0 20
MESCALERO 39 70 40 67 / 10 10 10 20
TIMBERON 37 67 38 64 / 10 10 0 10
WINSTON 38 75 41 71 / 10 10 10 30
HILLSBORO 48 82 51 78 / 10 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 48 83 51 80 / 10 10 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 38 79 41 75 / 10 10 10 30
HURLEY 46 82 49 77 / 0 0 0 20
CLIFF 42 87 44 84 / 0 10 0 20
MULE CREEK 38 83 40 80 / 0 10 0 20
FAYWOOD 50 81 53 76 / 0 0 0 20
ANIMAS 50 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 49 85 56 82 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 52 87 56 83 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVERDALE 53 83 56 79 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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