096
FXUS64 KEPZ 090923
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
323 AM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY RESTRICT VISIBILITY. THE RISK
OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT'S BEEN GIVING THE BORDERLAND REGION
SOME WELCOMED COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW WELL TO OUR EAST. MEANWHILE FOR
TODAY, THE LOCAL REGION REMAINS ON THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVERHEAD. THE
FINAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE DAY. QUIET/FAIR SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES 2-5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AT 7-15 MPH OUT OF THE
E/NE. AS THIS WEAK/BENIGN PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS NM, SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) OF RAIN EXISTS OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS. IF A RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPS OVER THE SACS,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SAID RAIN SHOWER WILL BE HIGH BASED/LOW
TOPPED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND BREEZY OUTFLOW WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECTED GENERALLY FEW TO SCATTERED SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ON SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF
QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LOW-END BREEZY WINDS ACROSS
THE SW NM. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DRY AND WARM HEADING INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FURTHER BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BACK AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY BREAK DOWN AS A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACNW. AS A RESULT, DEEP AND DRY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SW.
REPEATED BOUTS LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL UNDERLAY A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG 500MB THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY INDUCED A MULTIPLE DAY STRETCH OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. BLOWING DUST AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RESULT
FROM THIS PROLONGED STRETCH OF WARM/HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. AS OF NOW, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE
WINDIEST, WIND AND DUST HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC TO
FEW AT 10-15 KFT THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES BECOMING FEW-SCT AT
10-15 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE NE/E. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMEFRAME, INCREASING TO 7-12 KNOTS AFTER
18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW ON FRIDAY. THE WELL-ADVERTISED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT THE REGION SOME RELIEF OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAY WILL CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THAT
SAID, TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY UNDER IT'S INFLUENCE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
WITH MIN RH VALUES AT OR MOSTLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO LOW-END BREEZY EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THANKS TO
THE MUCH NEED PRECIP/MOISTURE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE
LIGHT/FLASHY (GRASS,BRUSH,ETC.) 10-HR FUELS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY
WITH ERC VALUES DROPPING BELOW 90TH PERCENTILE AREAWIDE. THE
LARGER 100/1000-HR FUELS (PJ,OAK,TIMBER,ETC.) HAVE SHOWN LITTLE TO
NO RESPONSE WITH DROUGHT STATUS REMAINING AT EXTREME TO
EXCEPTIONAL AREAWIDE.
FOR THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
DESERT SW WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOMING LOW-END ELEVATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB SAT/SUN AFTERNOONS WITH MIN RH
VALUES DROPPING TO BELOW 20 PERCENT AREAWIDE.
CRITICAL TO NEAR-EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (NEAR-EXTREME ON TUE/WED). THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN AS A
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACNW.
AS A RESULT, DEEP AND DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SW. REPEATED BOUTS LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGHING WILL UNDERLAY A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG 500MB THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY INDUCED A MULTIPLE
DAY STRETCH OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE. CRITICAL TO NEAR-EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL RESULT FROM THIS PROLONGED STRETCH OF WARM/HOT, DRY,
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AS OF NOW, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE
THE WINDIEST, FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 82 57 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 75 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 79 51 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 78 47 80 48 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 55 34 58 34 / 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 79 53 79 53 / 10 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 76 49 75 48 / 10 10 0 0
DEMING 83 52 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 82 55 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 81 59 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 78 48 80 48 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 83 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 73 51 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 82 55 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 79 55 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 57 80 58 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 80 50 80 49 / 10 10 0 0
HATCH 83 51 82 49 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 83 56 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 76 51 79 50 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 65 37 67 38 / 20 0 0 0
MESCALERO 66 38 69 38 / 20 0 0 0
TIMBERON 63 35 66 36 / 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 72 39 72 39 / 10 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 79 48 79 48 / 10 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 79 47 80 47 / 10 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 77 43 77 43 / 10 10 0 0
HURLEY 78 47 77 45 / 10 10 0 0
CLIFF 84 49 84 46 / 10 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 80 49 79 47 / 10 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 77 50 77 49 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 83 53 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 81 53 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 81 53 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 78 54 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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