715
FXUS64 KEPZ 100456
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1056 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- STRONG WINDS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
MAY RESTRICT VISIBILITY. THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
PLEASANT WEEKEND OF WEATHER AHEAD WITH MINIMAL HAZARDS. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE LAS VEGAS AREA WILL
MAKE A SLOW BUT STEADY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A WARMING TREND, WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE LOWER-TO-MID
80S ACROSS THE DESERT FLOOR WARMING FURTHER TO THE LOWER 90S BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL DRY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS MOISTURE
ERODES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY/SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES. MONDAY AFTERNOON'S WINDS MAY BE BREEZY,
ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE AZ STATE LINE. WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST MONDAY, ESPECIALLY
AROUND LORDSBURG/DEMING BUT LIKELY NOT TOO WIDESPREAD.
A RETURN TO THIS SPRING'S HIGH WIND AND DUST HAZARDS LOOKS LIKELY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE OVER WA/OR WILL DEEPEN AND DIVE SOUTHWARD MONDAY DUE TO A
STRONG MERIDIONAL JET STREAK ON HER BACKSIDE. STRONGER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL INDUCE A LEE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH SUBSEQUENT TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL WAY WEST INTO AZ. STRONG WEST WINDS
WILL IMPACT OUR LOCAL AREA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW, FORECAST IS PROJECTING WIND ADVISORY-CRITERIA
(SUSTAINED SPEEDS 30 TO 40 MPH) FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NM,
POSSIBLY HIGH WIND WARNING (GUSTS TO 60 MPH) OVER THE MOUNTAIN
ZONES.
SHOULD BE NO SURPRISE, BUT STRONG WINDS MEANS MORE BLOWING DUST
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND I-10/US-54 CORRIDORS. TUESDAY
IN PARTICULAR LOOKS TO BE THE DUSTIEST. STAY TUNED FOR DUST
HEADLINES THAT AFTERNOON.
THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY DRY LOCALLY. NOT REALLY
EXPECTING ANY MORE RAIN CHANCES UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR WITH MAYBE A CLOUD
OR TWO THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH WINDS E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW AFTERNOON
PERIOD UP TO 22 KTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND, DUE TO WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS. AFTERNOON RH FALLING TO 10-20%
OVER THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHEAST
WINDS SATURDAY/SUNDAY 10 TO 15 MPH WILL LEAD TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
MIDDAY VENTILATION.
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FURTHER DRYING
OCCURS AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL NEED FIRE HEADLINES FOR MOST ZONES WITH STRONG WEST
WINDS AND SINGLE-DIGIT RH. FUEL MOISTURE IS ACTUALLY NEAR NORMAL
RIGHT NOW DUE TO RECENT RAINS (ESPECIALLY OVER LNF), BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEK AND RAPID DRYING OF FINE
FUELS OCCURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 84 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 75 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 51 79 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 47 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 58 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 79 52 83 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 75 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 53 82 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 81 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 49 79 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 83 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 51 74 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 54 82 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 54 79 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 51 82 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 57 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 37 67 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 38 69 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 35 66 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 71 39 76 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 48 78 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 79 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 77 43 79 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 47 77 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 49 84 46 86 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 49 80 47 83 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 49 76 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 53 82 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 53 79 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 80 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 76 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...41-KELLY
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